Costco's Steady Sales Growth Faces Significant Valuation Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy CART?
Source: Fool
- Strong Sales Growth: Costco's retail sales in January 2026 rose 9.3% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 7.1%, demonstrating the company's ability to sustain growth in uncertain environments, which boosts investor confidence.
- Accelerated Digital Sales: Excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange impacts, Costco's digital sales surged 33.1% year-over-year, significantly up from 18.3% in December, indicating the effectiveness of the company's digital engagement initiatives in driving overall revenue growth.
- Membership Model Advantage: Costco's membership model and high sales of everyday essentials enhance its competitiveness amid market volatility, with a 15% stock price increase in 2026 reflecting investor recognition of its stable business model, despite market risks.
- Valuation Risk Warning: Despite Costco's strong business performance, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 53 suggests a need for sustained 15% earnings growth, while actual growth in fiscal 2025 was only 10%, prompting investors to carefully assess valuation risks.
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Analyst Views on CART
Wall Street analysts forecast CART stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CART is 51.62 USD with a low forecast of 40.00 USD and a high forecast of 66.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 34.350
Low
40.00
Averages
51.62
High
66.00
Current: 34.350
Low
40.00
Averages
51.62
High
66.00
About CART
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, is a grocery technology company in North America, works with grocers and retailers to transform how people shop. The Company partners with more than 1,800 national, regional, and local retail banners to facilitate online shopping, delivery and pickup services from more than 100,000 stores across North America on the Instacart Marketplace. The Instacart Platform offers retailers a suite of enterprise-grade technology products and services to power their e-commerce experiences, fulfill orders, digitize brick-and-mortar stores, provide advertising services, and glean insights. With Instacart Ads, thousands of consumer-packaged goods (CPG) brands - from category leaders to emerging brands - partner with the Company to connect directly with consumers online, right at the point of purchase. The Company, through its Instacart Health, provides tools to increase nutrition security and make healthy choices easier for consumers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco Reports Strong January Sales Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: Costco's January sales rose 9.3% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 7.1%, demonstrating the company's strong resilience in an uncertain market environment and further solidifying its leadership position in retail.
- Accelerated Digital Sales: Costco's digitally enabled sales surged 33.1% year-over-year in January, significantly up from 18.3% in December, indicating that the company's efforts to enhance digital engagement are yielding impressive results and improving the online shopping experience for customers.
- Membership Model Advantage: With a high proportion of sales from everyday essentials and a membership model, Costco has attracted consumers even amid market volatility, as evidenced by a 15% year-to-date stock price increase, reflecting investor confidence in its stable business model.
- Valuation Risk Warning: Despite Costco's strong business performance, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 53 may already price in expectations for robust earnings growth of 15%, prompting investors to be cautious of valuation risks that could lead to potential losses due to overvaluation.
See More
Costco's Steady Sales Growth Faces Significant Valuation Risks
- Strong Sales Growth: Costco's retail sales in January 2026 rose 9.3% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 7.1%, demonstrating the company's ability to sustain growth in uncertain environments, which boosts investor confidence.
- Accelerated Digital Sales: Excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange impacts, Costco's digital sales surged 33.1% year-over-year, significantly up from 18.3% in December, indicating the effectiveness of the company's digital engagement initiatives in driving overall revenue growth.
- Membership Model Advantage: Costco's membership model and high sales of everyday essentials enhance its competitiveness amid market volatility, with a 15% stock price increase in 2026 reflecting investor recognition of its stable business model, despite market risks.
- Valuation Risk Warning: Despite Costco's strong business performance, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 53 suggests a need for sustained 15% earnings growth, while actual growth in fiscal 2025 was only 10%, prompting investors to carefully assess valuation risks.
See More
Instacart Removes Priority Access Due to Seattle's PayUp Law
- Removal of Priority Access: Instacart is eliminating the priority access benefit of its Cart Star program starting February 25 due to Seattle's PayUp law, which prohibits features that violate equitable access for gig workers, impacting high-ranking shoppers' benefits.
- Legal Implications: The PayUp law mandates companies to pay gig workers at least $26.40 per hour plus expenses, leading Instacart to face increased operational costs, resulting in a 25% drop in delivery orders and a $17.6 million loss for local businesses.
- Driver Earnings Decline: Following the implementation of the PayUp law, Instacart drivers' hourly earnings fell by 28%, which not only affects their quality of life but may also reduce the number of available drivers on the platform, thereby impacting service quality.
- Stock Price Volatility: Due to regulatory pressures and business impacts, Instacart's shares fell another 5% on Tuesday, contributing to a seven-day losing streak, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability.
See More
Costco's Membership Model Drives Continued Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year sales increase and a 6.4% rise in comparable sales, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain strong sales momentum in a competitive market environment, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Digital Transformation Success: Digital sales surged by 20.5%, indicating that Costco has successfully adapted to changing consumer shopping habits, particularly through the promotion of e-commerce and curbside pickup services, enhancing customer shopping experience and satisfaction.
- High Membership Renewal Rates: With a renewal rate of 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% globally, Costco showcases strong customer loyalty, which further drives stable revenue streams and profitability for the company.
- Valuation Levels Rebound: Although Costco's P/E ratio exceeded 60 last year, indicating high valuation risks, it has now decreased to 52 times, allowing investors considering long-term holds to utilize dollar-cost averaging strategies to potentially achieve better investment returns in the future.
See More
Costco Starts 2026 Strong with 13% Stock Surge
- Significant Sales Growth: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year sales increase and a 6.4% rise in comparable sales, indicating strong market performance that is expected to enhance shareholder returns.
- High Membership Renewal Rates: The renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada reached 92.2%, with a global rate of 89.7%, and paid memberships increased by 5.2% to 81.4 million, demonstrating the company's success in maintaining customer loyalty and enhancing long-term profitability.
- Accelerated Digital Transformation: Digital sales surged by 20.5%, as the company upgraded its business model with self-checkout and online registration options, adapting to market trends that are likely to improve customer experience and drive future growth.
- Valuation Rebound Risks: Although Costco's P/E ratio has risen to 52 times, reflecting market recognition of its growth potential, the high valuation may pose risks for new investors, suggesting a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate purchase costs.
See More
Costco and Instacart Launch Same-Day Delivery in Europe
- Service Expansion: Costco partners with Instacart to launch its first same-day delivery websites in France and Spain, utilizing Instacart's Storefront Pro technology, marking a significant entry into the European market and expected to greatly enhance member shopping convenience.
- Market Coverage: The new service covers all Costco locations in France and Spain, including major cities like Paris and Bilbao, addressing local consumer demand for rapid delivery and further strengthening Costco's competitive position internationally.
- Technology Support: Instacart's enterprise-grade technology will power Costco's online ordering and delivery, ensuring members enjoy the same pricing and service as in-store, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and driving sales growth.
- Strategic Partnership: This expansion not only continues the long-standing collaboration between Costco and Instacart but also showcases Instacart's growth potential in global markets, expected to generate new revenue streams and increase market share for both companies.
See More
Costco Reports Strong January Sales Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: Costco's January sales rose 9.3% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 7.1%, demonstrating the company's strong resilience in an uncertain market environment and further solidifying its leadership position in retail.
- Accelerated Digital Sales: Costco's digitally enabled sales surged 33.1% year-over-year in January, significantly up from 18.3% in December, indicating that the company's efforts to enhance digital engagement are yielding impressive results and improving the online shopping experience for customers.
- Membership Model Advantage: With a high proportion of sales from everyday essentials and a membership model, Costco has attracted consumers even amid market volatility, as evidenced by a 15% year-to-date stock price increase, reflecting investor confidence in its stable business model.
- Valuation Risk Warning: Despite Costco's strong business performance, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 53 may already price in expectations for robust earnings growth of 15%, prompting investors to be cautious of valuation risks that could lead to potential losses due to overvaluation.
See More
Costco's Steady Sales Growth Faces Significant Valuation Risks
- Strong Sales Growth: Costco's retail sales in January 2026 rose 9.3% year-over-year, with same-store sales increasing by 7.1%, demonstrating the company's ability to sustain growth in uncertain environments, which boosts investor confidence.
- Accelerated Digital Sales: Excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange impacts, Costco's digital sales surged 33.1% year-over-year, significantly up from 18.3% in December, indicating the effectiveness of the company's digital engagement initiatives in driving overall revenue growth.
- Membership Model Advantage: Costco's membership model and high sales of everyday essentials enhance its competitiveness amid market volatility, with a 15% stock price increase in 2026 reflecting investor recognition of its stable business model, despite market risks.
- Valuation Risk Warning: Despite Costco's strong business performance, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 53 suggests a need for sustained 15% earnings growth, while actual growth in fiscal 2025 was only 10%, prompting investors to carefully assess valuation risks.
See More
Instacart Removes Priority Access Due to Seattle's PayUp Law
- Removal of Priority Access: Instacart is eliminating the priority access benefit of its Cart Star program starting February 25 due to Seattle's PayUp law, which prohibits features that violate equitable access for gig workers, impacting high-ranking shoppers' benefits.
- Legal Implications: The PayUp law mandates companies to pay gig workers at least $26.40 per hour plus expenses, leading Instacart to face increased operational costs, resulting in a 25% drop in delivery orders and a $17.6 million loss for local businesses.
- Driver Earnings Decline: Following the implementation of the PayUp law, Instacart drivers' hourly earnings fell by 28%, which not only affects their quality of life but may also reduce the number of available drivers on the platform, thereby impacting service quality.
- Stock Price Volatility: Due to regulatory pressures and business impacts, Instacart's shares fell another 5% on Tuesday, contributing to a seven-day losing streak, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability.
See More
Costco's Membership Model Drives Continued Growth
- Significant Sales Growth: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year sales increase and a 6.4% rise in comparable sales, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain strong sales momentum in a competitive market environment, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Digital Transformation Success: Digital sales surged by 20.5%, indicating that Costco has successfully adapted to changing consumer shopping habits, particularly through the promotion of e-commerce and curbside pickup services, enhancing customer shopping experience and satisfaction.
- High Membership Renewal Rates: With a renewal rate of 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% globally, Costco showcases strong customer loyalty, which further drives stable revenue streams and profitability for the company.
- Valuation Levels Rebound: Although Costco's P/E ratio exceeded 60 last year, indicating high valuation risks, it has now decreased to 52 times, allowing investors considering long-term holds to utilize dollar-cost averaging strategies to potentially achieve better investment returns in the future.
See More
Costco Starts 2026 Strong with 13% Stock Surge
- Significant Sales Growth: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year sales increase and a 6.4% rise in comparable sales, indicating strong market performance that is expected to enhance shareholder returns.
- High Membership Renewal Rates: The renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada reached 92.2%, with a global rate of 89.7%, and paid memberships increased by 5.2% to 81.4 million, demonstrating the company's success in maintaining customer loyalty and enhancing long-term profitability.
- Accelerated Digital Transformation: Digital sales surged by 20.5%, as the company upgraded its business model with self-checkout and online registration options, adapting to market trends that are likely to improve customer experience and drive future growth.
- Valuation Rebound Risks: Although Costco's P/E ratio has risen to 52 times, reflecting market recognition of its growth potential, the high valuation may pose risks for new investors, suggesting a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate purchase costs.
See More
Costco and Instacart Launch Same-Day Delivery in Europe
- Service Expansion: Costco partners with Instacart to launch its first same-day delivery websites in France and Spain, utilizing Instacart's Storefront Pro technology, marking a significant entry into the European market and expected to greatly enhance member shopping convenience.
- Market Coverage: The new service covers all Costco locations in France and Spain, including major cities like Paris and Bilbao, addressing local consumer demand for rapid delivery and further strengthening Costco's competitive position internationally.
- Technology Support: Instacart's enterprise-grade technology will power Costco's online ordering and delivery, ensuring members enjoy the same pricing and service as in-store, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and driving sales growth.
- Strategic Partnership: This expansion not only continues the long-standing collaboration between Costco and Instacart but also showcases Instacart's growth potential in global markets, expected to generate new revenue streams and increase market share for both companies.
See More
