CNBC Daily Open: Traders Face Challenges from a Cloudy History and Unclear Future
U.S. Market Decline: U.S. markets experienced their worst day since October 10, with major indexes like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all falling significantly, driven by concerns over high tech valuations and uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
China's Economic Slump: China's fixed-asset investment shrank by 1.7% from January to October, marking a significant contraction not seen since the pandemic in 2020, indicating deepening economic troubles.
Air India Impact on Singapore Airlines: Singapore Airlines reported an 82% drop in second-quarter earnings, with analysts predicting continued muted profits due to ongoing losses at Air India, in which Singapore Airlines holds a 25.1% stake.
AI Adoption at DBS Bank: DBS Bank's CEO highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the bank's operations, projecting a revenue increase of over 1 billion Singapore dollars this year, driven by extensive AI use cases across the business.
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- Big Tech Valuation Loss: According to FactSet, major tech companies collectively lost over $1 trillion in valuation over the past week, with Amazon alone shedding more than $300 billion, indicating a significant decline in market confidence that could impact future investment decisions.
- Sex Crime Scandal Exposure: Prominent Silicon Valley figures, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, have been linked to files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, which may have long-term reputational consequences for their companies and exacerbate public trust issues in the tech industry.
- Japanese Election Outcome: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in the recent election, reinstating Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, which grants her broad authority to boost spending and suspend certain food taxes; this result has bolstered Japanese stocks and strengthened the yen to 156.88 against the dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
- U.S. Market Rebound: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, marking a strong market rebound, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.97% and 2.18%, respectively, a trend that could attract more investors back into the market and drive economic recovery.
- Election Impact: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her ruling LDP secured a supermajority in the election, controlling over two-thirds of the Lower House, which allows her to freely pursue an agenda of increased spending and suspension of certain food taxes, likely stimulating economic growth further.
- Market Surge: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence and indicating positive market expectations regarding Takaichi's policies.
- U.S. Market Rebound: Major U.S. indexes rebounded post-election, with the S&P 500 rising 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.18%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, which bolstered global investor confidence.
- Private Credit Concerns: The private credit market faces renewed uncertainty as AI pressures software companies, raising investor concerns about borrower business models and potentially increasing default risks, which could impact overall financial stability.
- Election Outcome: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a supermajority in the recent elections, allowing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to return to power, which indicates strong voter support for her administration.
- Economic Policy Initiatives: Takaichi's agenda includes increasing defense spending and suspending certain food-related taxes, which is expected to stimulate economic growth and enhance consumer confidence, positively impacting Japan's economy.
- Market Reaction: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the government's future policies and economic direction.
- International Market Trends: U.S. markets also showed strong performance post-election, with major index futures rising, indicating global investor interest in tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector, further contributing to the overall market recovery.
- Big Tech Valuation Loss: According to FactSet data, Big Tech has collectively lost over $1 trillion in valuation over the past week, with Amazon alone shedding more than $300 billion, indicating a significant decline in market confidence that may lead investors to reassess the future growth potential of the tech sector.
- US-India Trade Deal Framework: The U.S. and India released a framework for a trade deal, although India showed resistance to U.S. demands for opening its agricultural market to imports, while Trump removed a 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, which could impact trade relations and future economic cooperation between the two nations.
- Luckin Coffee's High-End Store Launch: China's Luckin Coffee opened its first high-end store in Shenzhen, marking a shift from its original budget coffee kiosk strategy to directly compete with Starbucks, a strategic move that could attract a more affluent consumer base and enhance brand image and market share.
- Dow Jones Surpasses 50,000: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time on Friday, driven by a rebound in tech stocks, a milestone that not only reflects a strong market recovery but may also attract more investors to focus on the long-term growth potential of the U.S. stock market.
- Tech Sector Weakness: As of February 4, 2026, large-cap tech stocks have declined about 3%, making them the worst-performing sector, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and AI spending without returns, potentially increasing the risk of a market correction.
- Microsoft's Investment Appeal: Microsoft reported a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2026, and despite a slowdown in Azure's growth, its remaining performance obligation surged 110% to $625 billion, making it attractive for long-term investors with a current P/E ratio of 26, below S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 averages.
- Oracle's Upside Potential: Oracle's stock is viewed by analysts as having higher upside potential, with a median price target of around $272, indicating an 88% upside over the next 12 months; however, concerns over its AI spending persist, despite a 438% year-over-year increase in its contract backlog to $523 billion, indicating strong market demand.
- Market Focus on AI Spending: Investors are wary of Oracle's AI expenditures, especially after its announcement to raise $50 billion for new data centers, and while its client list includes industry giants like Nvidia and Meta, concerns about OpenAI's funding capabilities may impact its stock performance.
- Large-Cap Tech Underperformance: As of February 4, 2026, large-cap tech stocks have declined approximately 3%, making them the worst-performing sector, reflecting investor concerns over high valuations and excessive AI spending, which may increase the risk of a market correction.
- Microsoft's Investment Appeal: Microsoft reported a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2026, and despite a slowdown in growth for its AI cloud engine Azure, its remaining performance obligation rose 110% to $625 billion, making it attractive for long-term investors with a current P/E ratio of 26, below the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 averages.
- Oracle's Potential Upside: Oracle's stock is rated by Wall Street analysts to have an 88% upside potential with a target price of around $272, despite investor concerns over its AI spending; its contract backlog surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, indicating strong demand for cloud computing.
- Caution on AI Spending: Investors are cautious about companies with high AI expenditures, particularly Oracle due to its $300 billion contract with OpenAI, which has raised concerns despite its increasing debt, yet it remains attractive from a valuation perspective.











