China’s chip equipment spending to drop sharply in 2025, says UBS By Investing.com
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 29 2024
0mins
Should l Buy ASML?
Source: Investing.com
China's Semiconductor Spending Forecast: UBS predicts a decline in China's semiconductor equipment spending, estimating $29.7 billion in 2025 and $28.4 billion in 2026 due to U.S. export controls and weaker demand, marking significant drops from previous projections.
Impact on Local Companies: Despite challenges, local Chinese firms are expected to gain market share, with UBS recommending investment in NAURA Technology Group for its growth potential while downgrading Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc due to recent stock price increases.
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Analyst Views on ASML
Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1406.870
Low
1385
Averages
1583
High
1911
Current: 1406.870
Low
1385
Averages
1583
High
1911
About ASML
ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ASML's 2026 Revenue Guidance Appears Conservative Amid AI Spending
- Strong Order Growth: ASML's net bookings exceeded €28 billion in 2025, marking a 48% increase year-over-year, indicating challenges in meeting customer demand while reflecting the ongoing surge in semiconductor demand for advanced chips, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the coming years.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: Although ASML's 2026 revenue guidance is set at €34 billion to €39 billion, analysts expect actual revenue to slightly exceed the midpoint at €37 billion, demonstrating the company's potential for faster growth amid a surge in AI infrastructure spending.
- Significant Market Potential: ASML anticipates revenue of $51.3 billion in 2027, a 17% increase, driven by rising capital expenditures from customers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Micron Technology, further solidifying ASML's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.
- Stock Price Upside: Currently trading at 14.3 times sales, ASML's stock could reach $2,000 within two years, suggesting a 40% increase in market capitalization, reflecting strong investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
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ASML: A Key Player in AI Infrastructure
- Strong Stock Performance: ASML's stock has risen 88% since the beginning of 2024, showcasing its significance in the AI infrastructure sector and gradually gaining market recognition as a key player.
- Robust Financial Results: In 2025, ASML reported full-year sales of $32.66 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, with net income of $9.6 billion, up 26.9% from 2024, reflecting strong performance amid rising demand for AI-related infrastructure.
- Growing Market Demand: Major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon have announced plans for up to $625 billion in AI capability investments, significantly increasing demand for ASML's EUV technology and reinforcing its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry.
- Strategic Positioning: ASML's unique role in AI infrastructure provides it with a substantial competitive moat, and while it may not be the flashiest name, its importance in any long-term investment portfolio should not be overlooked.
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ASML Benefits from Surge in AI Demand
- Surge in Orders: ASML's net bookings exceeded €28 billion in 2025, a 48% increase year-over-year, indicating strong demand for advanced chipmaking equipment, particularly driven by the accelerated construction of AI data centers, which is expected to significantly boost future revenues.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: ASML anticipates revenue growth of 13% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, suggesting that the company can exceed market expectations in a favorable AI infrastructure spending environment, further solidifying its leadership position in the semiconductor industry.
- Market Share Expansion: With customers like TSMC and Micron increasing capital expenditures, ASML stands to benefit from a surge in memory chip demand, which is expected to drive substantial increases in equipment sales revenue, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Significant Stock Potential: Assuming ASML achieves $54 billion in revenue over the next two years, its market cap could rise by 40% to $769 billion, suggesting that the stock price could potentially exceed $2,000 in the near future, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
See More
ASML's Crucial Role in AI Infrastructure
- Surge in Market Spending: Major hyperscalers are planning to invest up to $625 billion in AI infrastructure in 2026, indicating a massive opportunity in the AI sector, although this spending has temporarily pressured stock prices of related companies.
- Strong ASML Performance: ASML reported full-year sales of $32.66 billion in 2025, a 15% increase year-over-year, with net income reaching $9.6 billion, up 26.9% from 2024, reflecting robust performance and sustained market demand in the semiconductor industry.
- Significant Technological Edge: ASML is the only company that has mastered advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, enabling chip designs that surpass the limitations of traditional deep ultraviolet (DUV) technology, thus providing clients with enhanced production capabilities to meet the demand for miniaturized components.
- Portfolio Investment Advice: While ASML may not be as recognized in the AI space as other companies, its unique market position and technological advantages make it an integral part of any long-term investment portfolio, warranting serious consideration from investors.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
Applied Materials Shares Climb Post-Earnings: A Safe Haven Amid AI Concerns.
- Earnings Report Impact: Applied Materials experienced a significant rise in stock price following its latest earnings report.
- AI Boom Beneficiaries: The company's success highlights the growing benefits for chipmaking equipment firms due to the surge in artificial intelligence demand.
See More
ASML's 2026 Revenue Guidance Appears Conservative Amid AI Spending
- Strong Order Growth: ASML's net bookings exceeded €28 billion in 2025, marking a 48% increase year-over-year, indicating challenges in meeting customer demand while reflecting the ongoing surge in semiconductor demand for advanced chips, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the coming years.
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: Although ASML's 2026 revenue guidance is set at €34 billion to €39 billion, analysts expect actual revenue to slightly exceed the midpoint at €37 billion, demonstrating the company's potential for faster growth amid a surge in AI infrastructure spending.
- Significant Market Potential: ASML anticipates revenue of $51.3 billion in 2027, a 17% increase, driven by rising capital expenditures from customers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Micron Technology, further solidifying ASML's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.
- Stock Price Upside: Currently trading at 14.3 times sales, ASML's stock could reach $2,000 within two years, suggesting a 40% increase in market capitalization, reflecting strong investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
See More
ASML: A Key Player in AI Infrastructure
- Strong Stock Performance: ASML's stock has risen 88% since the beginning of 2024, showcasing its significance in the AI infrastructure sector and gradually gaining market recognition as a key player.
- Robust Financial Results: In 2025, ASML reported full-year sales of $32.66 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, with net income of $9.6 billion, up 26.9% from 2024, reflecting strong performance amid rising demand for AI-related infrastructure.
- Growing Market Demand: Major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon have announced plans for up to $625 billion in AI capability investments, significantly increasing demand for ASML's EUV technology and reinforcing its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry.
- Strategic Positioning: ASML's unique role in AI infrastructure provides it with a substantial competitive moat, and while it may not be the flashiest name, its importance in any long-term investment portfolio should not be overlooked.
See More
ASML Benefits from Surge in AI Demand
- Surge in Orders: ASML's net bookings exceeded €28 billion in 2025, a 48% increase year-over-year, indicating strong demand for advanced chipmaking equipment, particularly driven by the accelerated construction of AI data centers, which is expected to significantly boost future revenues.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: ASML anticipates revenue growth of 13% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, suggesting that the company can exceed market expectations in a favorable AI infrastructure spending environment, further solidifying its leadership position in the semiconductor industry.
- Market Share Expansion: With customers like TSMC and Micron increasing capital expenditures, ASML stands to benefit from a surge in memory chip demand, which is expected to drive substantial increases in equipment sales revenue, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Significant Stock Potential: Assuming ASML achieves $54 billion in revenue over the next two years, its market cap could rise by 40% to $769 billion, suggesting that the stock price could potentially exceed $2,000 in the near future, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
See More
ASML's Crucial Role in AI Infrastructure
- Surge in Market Spending: Major hyperscalers are planning to invest up to $625 billion in AI infrastructure in 2026, indicating a massive opportunity in the AI sector, although this spending has temporarily pressured stock prices of related companies.
- Strong ASML Performance: ASML reported full-year sales of $32.66 billion in 2025, a 15% increase year-over-year, with net income reaching $9.6 billion, up 26.9% from 2024, reflecting robust performance and sustained market demand in the semiconductor industry.
- Significant Technological Edge: ASML is the only company that has mastered advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, enabling chip designs that surpass the limitations of traditional deep ultraviolet (DUV) technology, thus providing clients with enhanced production capabilities to meet the demand for miniaturized components.
- Portfolio Investment Advice: While ASML may not be as recognized in the AI space as other companies, its unique market position and technological advantages make it an integral part of any long-term investment portfolio, warranting serious consideration from investors.
See More
US Stocks Edge Up, Led by Chipmakers' Gains
- Chipmaker Rebound: Applied Materials (AMAT) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.38, surpassing the consensus of $2.21, leading to a 10% stock price increase that helped lift the broader market, indicating strong recovery potential in tech stocks.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%, which may prompt the Fed to continue cutting rates, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to 4.05%, providing support for the market.
- Earnings Performance: Over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience and restoring market confidence.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite the overall market rise, concerns over AI persist, putting pressure on certain stocks, particularly in tech and logistics, reflecting investor caution regarding future economic prospects.
See More
Applied Materials Shares Climb Post-Earnings: A Safe Haven Amid AI Concerns.
- Earnings Report Impact: Applied Materials experienced a significant rise in stock price following its latest earnings report.
- AI Boom Beneficiaries: The company's success highlights the growing benefits for chipmaking equipment firms due to the surge in artificial intelligence demand.
See More
