CF Industries (CF) Projects 10 Million Tons Ammonia Production by 2025, Significant Stock Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 19 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Earnings Estimate Increase: CF Industries maintains its 2025 ammonia production forecast at 10 million tons, with management highlighting tight global nitrogen supply and low inventories, ensuring robust demand across North America, India, and Brazil, which is expected to drive future performance growth.
- Earnings Beat: CF Industries achieved a 6% earnings beat in Q3, with ammonia network utilization reaching 97% year-to-date, demonstrating the company's strong performance in efficient production and market demand, further solidifying its leadership in the nitrogen fertilizer market.
- Carbon Capture Revenue: The company anticipates that carbon capture, sequestration, and abatement projects will contribute $150 to $200 million in annual free cash flow by 2030, indicating CF's strategic advantage in sustainability and low-carbon product sales, enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Stock Potential Analysis: Although CF Industries' stock has hovered around $80 for the past five years, with earnings estimates rising and industry fundamentals improving, analysts have raised price targets to $95, suggesting the stock could break long-term resistance and aim for $100.
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Analyst Views on CF
Wall Street analysts forecast CF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CF is 91.60 USD with a low forecast of 78.00 USD and a high forecast of 110.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 91.320
Low
78.00
Averages
91.60
High
110.00
Current: 91.320
Low
78.00
Averages
91.60
High
110.00
About CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products. The Company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. The Company's segments include Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN and Other. Ammonia segment produces anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which is the base product that it manufactures (containing 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen). Granular Urea segment produces granular urea, which contains 46% nitrogen. UAN segment produces urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN). AN segment produces ammonium nitrate (AN). Other segment primarily includes products, such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor and nitric acid. Its manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, a storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enable a global reach.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 2.18% reflects the company's attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially drawing in more investors seeking stable income.
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- Dividend Declaration: CF Industries' board has declared a $0.50 per share dividend, payable on February 27, 2026, which will provide shareholders with a stable cash return and enhance investor confidence.
- Earnings Release Schedule: The company confirmed it will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results after market close on February 18, 2026, which is expected to provide key performance metrics for assessing future growth potential.
- Conference Call Arrangement: CF Industries will host a conference call on February 19, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss financial results, allowing investors to dial in and engage with management, thereby enhancing investor relations.
- Sustainability Strategy: CF Industries is committed to decarbonizing its ammonia production network to develop low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products, showcasing the company's strategic importance in the clean energy transition aligned with global sustainability trends.
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