Alibaba Leads Year-to-Date Performance in Broadline Retail Stocks
Consumer Discretionary Sector Performance: The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector has gained +7.2% year-to-date in 2025, underperforming compared to the overall S&P 500, which has a higher performance. The sector ranks eighth among 11 major sectors, while the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) has increased by +9.1% YTD.
Top Performing Retail Stocks: Alibaba Group leads the top 10 broadline retail stocks with a YTD performance of +73.75%, followed by Kohl’s Corporation and Dillard’s, Inc. Other notable companies include Vipshop Holdings and Macy’s, with most stocks rated as 'Hold' in terms of Quant Rating.
Amazon's Performance: Amazon.com ranks last among the listed stocks with a YTD performance of +3.36%, but it holds the highest Quant Rating of 'Strong Buy 4.94', indicating strong investor confidence despite its lower performance.
Additional Consumer Discretionary ETFs: The article mentions several consumer discretionary ETFs, including XLY, VCR, FXD, FDIS, RSPD, and RXI, suggesting a variety of investment options within the sector.
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- Earnings Growth: Amazon's Q4 revenue surged 14% to $213 billion, with operating income rising 18% to $25 billion, showcasing broad growth across retail, advertising, and cloud sectors, yet this strong performance failed to reassure investors.
- Capital Expenditure Forecast: CEO Andy Jassy announced a staggering $200 billion in expected capital expenditures for 2026, significantly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $150 billion, which raised investor concerns and triggered a sell-off.
- Market Reaction: The stock price of Amazon plummeted 12% over the past week due to worries about future spending, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment despite robust demand in AI and cloud computing sectors.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Although Amazon enjoys strong demand across various sectors, the aggressive expansion plans have unsettled investors, leading to a decline in market confidence that could impact short-term stock performance.
- Stable Dividend Growth: Realty Income has increased its dividend for 112 consecutive quarters, demonstrating its ability to deliver stable growth across various macroeconomic environments, which is likely to continue attracting income-seeking investors.
- Strong Market Prospects: The company has a total addressable market of $8.5 trillion in Europe, indicating significant expansion potential, particularly with its investments in private capital that will further enhance its competitive position.
- UPS Cash Flow Assurance: United Parcel Service (UPS) expects to generate $6.5 billion in free cash flow in 2023, sufficient to cover $5.4 billion in dividends while also spending $3 billion on capital expenditures, showcasing its financial health and ability to maintain dividends.
- Verizon's Financial Improvement: Verizon Communications projects a 7% year-over-year increase in free cash flow to $21.5 billion in 2026, and with 19 consecutive years of dividend increases, it indicates strong growth potential following the acquisition of Frontier Communications.
- Market Volatility Intensifies: Last week, Big Tech stocks saw over $1 trillion wiped from their market caps, creating a tense market atmosphere, with Oracle and Microsoft rising 1.6% and 0.8% respectively, while Meta and Amazon struggled, reflecting investor concerns over future expenditures.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta reported a combined capital expenditure of approximately $120 billion in Q4, with projections nearing $700 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel, highlighting a strong investment demand for AI infrastructure.
- Cloud Growth Potential: Despite negative market reactions to Amazon and Alphabet's capex guidance exceeding expectations, analysts believe robust cloud growth will continue to drive stock prices, especially amid accelerating data center demand.
- Increased Management Confidence: In the face of macroeconomic pressures, Bank of America analysts noted that management teams are increasingly confident in their demand forecasts, anticipating full capacity utilization by 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry.
- Market Volatility Impact: Following a week where over $1 trillion was wiped from market caps, Big Tech stocks showed flat performance in premarket trading on Monday, indicating market uncertainty, particularly with rising capital expenditure plans in the AI sector.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta reported a combined capital expenditure of approximately $120 billion in Q4, with projections soaring to $660 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel, reflecting strong industry confidence in AI investments.
- Divergent Stock Performance: As of 6:12 a.m. ET, Oracle rose 1.5% and Microsoft edged up 0.8%, while Meta and Amazon fell 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, showcasing varied performances among stocks amidst overall market weakness, which could influence investor decisions.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Despite growing margins for cloud companies, analysts warn of potential stock volatility due to macroeconomic pressures; however, management's confidence in demand forecasting may lead to full capacity utilization by 2026, providing some reassurance to investors.
- REIT Stability: Realty Income, the world's sixth-largest REIT, owns over 15,500 properties with top tenants like Dollar General and FedEx, boasting a forward dividend yield of 5.1%, and its impressive track record of 30 consecutive years of dividend increases underscores its stability and growth potential.
- Delivery Giant Resilience: United Parcel Service has never cut its dividend since going public in 1999, currently offering a 5.6% dividend yield, with projected free cash flow of $6.5 billion in 2023, sufficient to cover $5.4 billion in dividends, highlighting its strong financial health and growth prospects.
- Telecom Growth Potential: Verizon Communications offers a 6.1% dividend yield and has increased its dividend for 19 consecutive years, with free cash flow expected to rise to $21.5 billion in 2026, indicating robust growth following its acquisition of Frontier Communications, which strengthens its market position.
- Market Volatility and Investment Strategy: Despite increasing market volatility and concerns over a potential AI stock bubble, high-yield stocks like Realty Income, UPS, and Verizon present attractive options for investors, particularly in uncertain economic conditions due to their stability and growth potential.
- Price Pressure Emerges: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy stated that consumers are beginning to feel the impact of the Trump administration's 10% tariffs on prices, particularly amid increasing economic uncertainty.
- Inventory Management Strategy: Jassy noted that Amazon and many third-party sellers proactively purchased inventory last year to mitigate tariff impacts, which helped keep prices stable for a time, but as supplies dwindle, tariff costs are starting to reflect in prices.
- Changing Consumer Behavior: Consumers are showing increased caution in their shopping habits, opting for bargains and hesitating on higher-priced discretionary items, indicating the economic environment's influence on spending behavior.
- Limited Retail Profit Margins: Jassy emphasized that the mid-single-digit operating margins in retail leave little room to absorb rising costs, stating that if costs rise by 10%, retailers have very few options to manage that pressure.











