Breakingviews - This Week's Highlights: The Ongoing Fight Over Pharmaceuticals
U.S. Stock Market Decline: The U.S. stock market is experiencing a downturn, with the S&P 500 down 4% and the Nasdaq down 6% from their recent peaks, raising questions about whether this is a temporary setback or the start of a larger correction.
M&A Activity in Biotech: A competitive bidding war has emerged between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk for U.S. biotech Metsera, highlighting the aggressive nature of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in the current market environment.
Legal and Regulatory Challenges: Pfizer's legal attempts to block Novo's bid for Metsera were unsuccessful, and U.S. competition authorities have shown support for Pfizer's offer, indicating a complex regulatory landscape for such deals.
Optimism in Hong Kong's Financial Summit: The mood at Hong Kong's financial summit has improved compared to previous years, although U.S. banks are struggling to capture the benefits of increased activity, which are primarily going to local Chinese advisers.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
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NVIDIA's Q4 Earnings Performance: NVIDIA's Q4 earnings report for fiscal 2026 shows strong revenue growth driven by AI, with a revenue of $68.3 billion, surpassing market expectations and indicating robust cash flow and investment potential.
Market Segments Growth: The company experienced significant growth across critical markets, particularly in data centers, automotive, and gaming, with data center revenue accounting for over 90% of total revenue and growing by 75% year-over-year.
Future Projections: Analysts project continued strong performance for NVIDIA, forecasting $78 billion in revenue for Q1 FY 2027, reflecting a 14.7% sequential increase and a 77% year-over-year growth, excluding China.
Investor Sentiment and Stock Outlook: Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on NVIDIA's stock, with a consensus target price suggesting significant upside potential, supported by strong cash flow and a healthy balance sheet, positioning the company well for future growth.
- Strong Performance: Nvidia reported an adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 for the quarter ending January 25, with revenue soaring 73% year-over-year to $68.13 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $65.91 billion, indicating robust market demand and execution.
- Data Center Revenue Surge: Data center revenue reached $62.13 billion, surpassing expectations of $60.36 billion, reflecting a surge in enterprise demand for AI computing, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company anticipates revenue of $78 billion for the upcoming fiscal first quarter, excluding any revenue from China, showcasing confidence in global markets while also indicating a cautious stance towards the Chinese market.
- Dividend Announcement: Nvidia declared a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share to be paid on April 1, enhancing investor confidence and demonstrating the company's ability to return value to shareholders supported by strong cash flow.
- Market Underestimation: Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities pointed out that Wall Street analysts have severely underestimated Nvidia's valuation, particularly ahead of the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, indicating a neglect of the company's potential.
- Surge in AI Demand: Ives emphasized that with the skyrocketing demand for artificial intelligence, Nvidia's chips play a crucial role in driving the AI revolution, making its future earnings pivotal.
- Performance Expectations: Ives anticipates a 'gold medal performance' from Nvidia, reflecting not only his confidence in the company's strong earnings but also potentially influencing investor perceptions of its stock.
- Stock Price Reaction: At the time of writing, Nvidia's shares were trading 2% higher, indicating a positive market response to the optimistic expectations surrounding the upcoming earnings report and analyst sentiments.
- Market Opportunity Outlook: Despite a 'brutal' week, Ives from Wedbush believes that as long as AI companies continue their capital expenditures, this period will be seen as an opportunity for the future, predicting that enterprise and AI spending will dictate stock movements over the next 12-24 months.
- Microsoft Revenue Forecast: Ives highlighted that 10% of Azure customers have embarked on the AI path, which he predicts will generate an incremental revenue of $35 billion to $40 billion for Microsoft, showcasing the company's potential and market demand in the AI sector.
- Nvidia Stock Analysis: Ives referred to Nvidia as a 'stunner,' noting that despite a 9% drop since its earnings report, he expects the stock to be valued between $210 and $215, reflecting a bullish outlook on its future performance.
- Amazon's Increased Attractiveness: Ives stated that Amazon has become 'most attractive' in the past four to five years, emphasizing CEO Andy Jassy's contributions, indicating that the company is enhancing its competitiveness and appeal in the market.
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index closed down 0.43% on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.05% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.30%, reflecting heightened investor concerns over the disruptive potential of AI, which has negatively impacted market confidence.
- Bank Stocks Plummet: The collapse of UK private lender Market Financial Solutions Ltd raised fears of rising defaults, leading to significant declines in bank stocks, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both down over 7%, indicating instability within the financial sector.
- Economic Data Impact: The US January PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, while the Chicago PMI unexpectedly increased to 57.7, demonstrating economic resilience, although market speculation regarding Fed rate cuts was dampened.
- Rising Oil Prices Pressure: WTI crude oil prices surged over 2% to a 7-month high due to President Trump's pessimistic remarks on Iranian nuclear negotiations, exacerbating geopolitical risks that could further impact airline profits, leading to declines in related stocks.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Nvidia reported a remarkable 73% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching $68.1 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations, yet the stock price declined due to market concerns about sustainability despite strong performance.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company forecasts revenues of $78 billion for the upcoming quarter, surpassing Wall Street's consensus of $71.64 billion, although market skepticism about sustaining such growth led to a drop in stock price following the impressive results.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Management, noted that despite strong earnings, concerns over Nvidia's ability to maintain growth could keep the stock price rangebound, reflecting investor uncertainty about future growth prospects.
- China Market Risks: While Nvidia did not provide updates on its China operations, Munster suggested that the market might discount China's contribution due to recent revenue volatility, emphasizing that demand outside of China remains the larger narrative.











