Breakingviews - Berlusconis’ German TV raid is worth resisting
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 14 2025
0mins
Should l Buy WBD?
Source: Reuters
M&A Drama in ProSiebenSat.1 Media: ProSiebenSat.1 Media is experiencing a tussle for control between its two largest shareholders, MFE-MediaForEurope and PPF, with both making offers but not pursuing conventional takeover bids that would appeal to all minority shareholders.
Strategic Approaches: MFE seeks to leverage its stake for collaboration with Italian and Spanish TV properties, while PPF aims to enhance local content and modernize streaming offerings, potentially exploring partnerships with U.S. streamers for broader distribution.
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Analyst Views on WBD
Wall Street analysts forecast WBD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WBD is 24.98 USD with a low forecast of 14.75 USD and a high forecast of 30.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.360
Low
14.75
Averages
24.98
High
30.00
Current: 27.360
Low
14.75
Averages
24.98
High
30.00
About WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. is a global media and entertainment company that creates and distributes a portfolio of branded content across television, film, streaming and gaming. The Company's segments include Studios, Networks and DTC. Studios segment primarily consists of the production and release of feature films for initial exhibition in theaters, production and initial licensing of television programs to its networks/DTC services as well as third parties, distribution of its films and television programs to various third party and internal television and streaming services, distribution through the home entertainment market, and others. Networks segment primarily consists of its domestic and international television networks. DTC segment primarily consists of its premium pay-TV and streaming services. Its brands and products include Discovery Channel, Max, DC, TNT Sports, Eurosport, HBO, HGTV, Food Network, OWN, Investigation Discovery, TLC, Warner Bros., and Cartoon Network.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Potential ESPN Acquisition: Should the Warner Bros. deal collapse, Netflix may pivot to acquiring ESPN, which only contributed 19% of Disney's revenue in fiscal 2025 and has seen a 25% drop in operating profit, potentially allowing Netflix to reduce content costs significantly.
- Investment in Sports Content: Netflix is making substantial investments in live sports, including exclusive NFL Christmas games starting in 2024, indicating a strategic focus on sports content to attract more subscribers and enhance platform differentiation.
- Market Reaction: Since Netflix announced its pursuit of Warner Bros., its stock has declined; if the acquisition fails, the market may respond positively to a smaller ESPN deal, enhancing Netflix's content competitiveness and user experience.
See More
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- Acquisition Obstacles: Netflix's plan to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion faces antitrust scrutiny, particularly in Europe, which could delay or derail the deal, impacting its market expansion strategy.
- Potential ESPN Acquisition: Should the Warner Bros. deal fall through, Netflix may consider acquiring Disney's ESPN, which accounted for only 19% of Disney's $94.4 billion revenue in fiscal 2025, indicating its underperformance and potential as a strategic asset for Netflix.
- Increased Sports Investment: Netflix has begun significant investments in live sports, becoming the exclusive broadcaster of NFL games on Christmas, demonstrating its commitment to content diversification and user engagement, which could enhance customer retention.
- Market Reaction: Since announcing the Warner Bros. acquisition, Netflix's stock has declined, and a pivot to acquiring ESPN could be viewed favorably by the market, potentially improving its content cost structure and enhancing competitiveness.
See More
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- Poor Market Performance: Despite a significant recovery in 2022, Netflix's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, losing 11% last month and trading at a 40% discount to its 52-week high, which may dampen investor confidence.
- Strong Financial Growth: In 2025, Netflix reported revenue of $45 billion, a 16% annual increase, with net income nearing $11 billion, up 26%, demonstrating its strong influence in the streaming industry despite rising costs.
- Acquisition Risks: Netflix's all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. for $82.7 billion could enhance its market position, but with only around $9 billion in liquidity, it may need to dilute its stock or take on significant debt, leading to a pause in share repurchases.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Although revenue growth is projected to slow to 12%-14% in 2026, Netflix expects subscriber growth and a near doubling of ad revenue, indicating long-term potential in the streaming market, but short-term challenges may persist.
See More
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- Antitrust Investigation: The U.S. Justice Department is scrutinizing Netflix's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros., focusing on potential anticompetitive practices that could affect the deal's approval and Netflix's market position.
- Transaction Valuation: Netflix agreed to acquire Warner Bros. at $27.75 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $72 billion, and any blockage could significantly impact Netflix's expansion plans.
- Market Share Concerns: The merger would give Netflix and HBO Max control of about 30% of the U.S. subscription streaming market, a threshold that may trigger stricter antitrust scrutiny, affecting future competitive dynamics.
- Legal Response: Netflix's lawyer stated that the company has not received any separate monopolization investigation notice from the Justice Department, although market concerns about the antitrust risks of the deal may affect investor confidence.
See More
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Paramount's Antitrust Review: Paramount is seeking a quick antitrust review regarding its acquisition of Warner Bros. to expedite the process and address regulatory concerns.
Impact on Industry: The outcome of this review could significantly influence the media landscape and competition among major entertainment companies.
Regulatory Environment: The current regulatory environment is increasingly scrutinizing mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the media sector.
Market Reactions: Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the situation, as the review's speed and outcome may affect stock prices and market dynamics.
See More
