Breaking Down the Numbers: TPYP Aims for $40
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 22 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PAGP?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund ETF (TPYP) has an implied analyst target price of $39.66 per unit, while it is currently trading at approximately $35.58, indicating an expected upside of 11.46%.
Underlying Holdings Performance: Key holdings within TPYP, including Energy Transfer LP (ET), Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), and Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP), show significant potential for growth based on analysts' target prices.
Analyst Target Comparisons: ET's average target price is $22.87, suggesting a 30.96% increase from its current price of $17.46; PAA has a target of $21.13 (20.21% upside), and PAGP's target is $21.25 (12.34% upside).
Investor Considerations: Questions arise regarding the validity of these analyst targets, prompting further research into whether they reflect realistic expectations or if they may be overly optimistic given recent market developments.
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Analyst Views on PAGP
Wall Street analysts forecast PAGP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PAGP is 20.42 USD with a low forecast of 16.50 USD and a high forecast of 23.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 21.190
Low
16.50
Averages
20.42
High
23.00
Current: 21.190
Low
16.50
Averages
20.42
High
23.00
About PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. through Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and provides logistics services for crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL). The Company operates through two segments: Crude Oil and NGL. The Crude Oil segment operations generally consist of gathering and transporting crude oil using pipelines (including gathering systems), trucks, and at times on barges or railcars, in addition to providing terminalling, storage and other related services utilizing its integrated assets across the United States and Canada. The NGL segment operations involve natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation and terminalling. The NGL segment is engaged in providing gathering, fractionation, storage, and/or terminalling services to third-party customers, extracting NGL mix from the gas stream processed at its Empress straddle plant facility as well as acquiring NGL mix.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Miss: Plains GP Holdings reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, missing expectations by $0.27, indicating significant pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company’s Q4 revenue of $10.56 billion represents a 14.8% year-over-year decline, falling short of the anticipated $1.88 billion, reflecting weak market demand and operational challenges.
- Negative Market Reaction: Following the earnings miss, BofA downgraded Plains All American to a 'Sell' rating, which may raise investor concerns about the company's future performance and impact stock price movements.
- Uncertain Earnings Outlook: With ongoing market pressures, the sustainability of future earnings is in question, prompting investors to closely monitor the company's strategic adjustments in a high-yield environment.
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Plains All American Reports 2025 Financials and 2026 Guidance
- Net Income Growth in 2025: Plains All American reported a net income of $342 million in Q4 2025 and $1.435 billion for the full year, representing an 86% increase from 2024, indicating strong performance and enhanced profitability in the market.
- Adjusted EBITDA Performance: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $738 million in Q4 2025 and $2.833 billion for the full year, reflecting ongoing efforts in operational efficiency and cost control, which are expected to support future investments and distributions.
- 2026 Outlook and Distribution Increase: Plains anticipates a midpoint adjusted EBITDA of $2.75 billion for 2026 and announced a $0.15 per unit distribution increase, representing a 10% rise in the annualized distribution rate, which will bolster investor confidence and attract more capital inflow.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans approximately $350 million in growth capital expenditures and $165 million in maintenance capital expenditures for 2026, demonstrating a strong commitment to future growth while maintaining a cautious approach to market volatility.
See More
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- Net Income Surge: Plains All American reported a net income of $342 million for Q4 2025 and $1.435 billion for the full year, marking an 86% increase from 2024, which reflects strong performance in the midstream oil and gas market and is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $738 million in Q4 and $2.833 billion for the year, demonstrating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which are expected to support future capital expenditures and distributions.
- 2026 Outlook and Distribution Increase: Plains anticipates a midpoint adjusted EBITDA of $2.75 billion for 2026 and announced a $0.15 per unit increase in distributions, representing a 10% rise in the annualized distribution rate, enhancing return expectations for investors and attracting more capital inflows.
- Strategic Asset Divestiture: The company plans to complete the sale of its Canadian NGL business by the end of Q1 2026, which is expected to optimize asset allocation and reduce leverage ratios, further solidifying its leadership position in the North American midstream market.
See More
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- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $12.44 billion, showing a modest year-over-year growth of 0.3%, indicating the company's efforts to maintain stable revenue, which may bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, PAGP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 13% of the time, highlighting its performance volatility, which necessitates cautious evaluation of future sustainability by investors.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw one upward revision with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and two downward revisions, reflecting market divergence regarding the company's future performance, which could influence investor decisions.
See More
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- Positive Outlook for Centerra Gold: Centerra Gold anticipates a 48% year-over-year growth in EPS for 2026, with estimates raised by 17 cents over the past week, reflecting strong performance driven by rising gold prices and effective cost control.
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- Preferred Unit Distribution: PAA's Series A preferred units will receive a cash distribution of $0.61524 per unit, annualizing to $2.46, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to maintaining stable cash flows, which is crucial for its market position in the energy infrastructure sector.
- Tax Implications Expected: Due to the pending sale of NGL assets, PAGP anticipates that part of its 2026 cash distribution will be taxable as dividends, which may influence investors' tax planning and encourage more cautious future investment decisions.
- Earnings Release Schedule: PAA and PAGP will release their Q4 2025 earnings before market open on February 6, 2026, followed by a conference call, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, thereby enhancing the company's transparency and market trust.
See More
Plains GP Holdings Reports Q4 Earnings Miss
- Earnings Miss: Plains GP Holdings reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, missing expectations by $0.27, indicating significant pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company’s Q4 revenue of $10.56 billion represents a 14.8% year-over-year decline, falling short of the anticipated $1.88 billion, reflecting weak market demand and operational challenges.
- Negative Market Reaction: Following the earnings miss, BofA downgraded Plains All American to a 'Sell' rating, which may raise investor concerns about the company's future performance and impact stock price movements.
- Uncertain Earnings Outlook: With ongoing market pressures, the sustainability of future earnings is in question, prompting investors to closely monitor the company's strategic adjustments in a high-yield environment.
See More
Plains All American Reports 2025 Financials and 2026 Guidance
- Net Income Growth in 2025: Plains All American reported a net income of $342 million in Q4 2025 and $1.435 billion for the full year, representing an 86% increase from 2024, indicating strong performance and enhanced profitability in the market.
- Adjusted EBITDA Performance: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $738 million in Q4 2025 and $2.833 billion for the full year, reflecting ongoing efforts in operational efficiency and cost control, which are expected to support future investments and distributions.
- 2026 Outlook and Distribution Increase: Plains anticipates a midpoint adjusted EBITDA of $2.75 billion for 2026 and announced a $0.15 per unit distribution increase, representing a 10% rise in the annualized distribution rate, which will bolster investor confidence and attract more capital inflow.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans approximately $350 million in growth capital expenditures and $165 million in maintenance capital expenditures for 2026, demonstrating a strong commitment to future growth while maintaining a cautious approach to market volatility.
See More
Plains All American Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Guidance
- Net Income Surge: Plains All American reported a net income of $342 million for Q4 2025 and $1.435 billion for the full year, marking an 86% increase from 2024, which reflects strong performance in the midstream oil and gas market and is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $738 million in Q4 and $2.833 billion for the year, demonstrating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which are expected to support future capital expenditures and distributions.
- 2026 Outlook and Distribution Increase: Plains anticipates a midpoint adjusted EBITDA of $2.75 billion for 2026 and announced a $0.15 per unit increase in distributions, representing a 10% rise in the annualized distribution rate, enhancing return expectations for investors and attracting more capital inflows.
- Strategic Asset Divestiture: The company plans to complete the sale of its Canadian NGL business by the end of Q1 2026, which is expected to optimize asset allocation and reduce leverage ratios, further solidifying its leadership position in the North American midstream market.
See More
Plains GP Holdings to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 6
- Earnings Announcement Date: Plains GP Holdings is set to release its Q4 earnings report on February 6 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.59, reflecting a staggering 1280% year-over-year increase, which could positively impact the stock price.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $12.44 billion, showing a modest year-over-year growth of 0.3%, indicating the company's efforts to maintain stable revenue, which may bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, PAGP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 13% of the time, highlighting its performance volatility, which necessitates cautious evaluation of future sustainability by investors.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw one upward revision with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and two downward revisions, reflecting market divergence regarding the company's future performance, which could influence investor decisions.
See More
Centerra Gold and Three Value Stocks to Buy Amid Market Uncertainty
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: The U.S. market faces increased volatility in early 2026 due to trade threats from the Trump administration and rising geopolitical risks, which diminishes investor confidence and elevates the importance of value investing.
- Positive Outlook for Centerra Gold: Centerra Gold anticipates a 48% year-over-year growth in EPS for 2026, with estimates raised by 17 cents over the past week, reflecting strong performance driven by rising gold prices and effective cost control.
- Strategic Restructuring at Plains GP Holdings: Plains GP Holdings plans to exit the Canadian NGL business, expected to enhance cash flow and financial flexibility, with a projected 27% growth in EPS for 2026 and a 30-cent increase in estimates over the past 60 days.
- Expansion of Angi's Digital Marketplace: Angi forecasts a 36% year-over-year growth in EPS for 2026, with estimates raised by 16 cents in the past week, as it aims to launch a modern AI platform to improve operational efficiency, showcasing its growth potential in essential home services.
See More
Plains All American Announces 10% Increase in Q4 2025 Cash Distributions
- Cash Distribution Increase: Plains All American Pipeline announced a Q4 2025 cash distribution of $0.4175 per common unit, annualizing to $1.67, reflecting a $0.0375 increase from November 2025, or a 10% annualized growth, which is likely to boost investor confidence and attract more capital inflows.
- Preferred Unit Distribution: PAA's Series A preferred units will receive a cash distribution of $0.61524 per unit, annualizing to $2.46, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to maintaining stable cash flows, which is crucial for its market position in the energy infrastructure sector.
- Tax Implications Expected: Due to the pending sale of NGL assets, PAGP anticipates that part of its 2026 cash distribution will be taxable as dividends, which may influence investors' tax planning and encourage more cautious future investment decisions.
- Earnings Release Schedule: PAA and PAGP will release their Q4 2025 earnings before market open on February 6, 2026, followed by a conference call, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, thereby enhancing the company's transparency and market trust.
See More
