Asia-Pacific Markets Decline After Wall Street Losses Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Market Reactions: Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly lower, influenced by losses on Wall Street as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision on December 10, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut.
Fed's Future Stance: Experts predict that after the rate cut, the Fed will adopt a more data-dependent approach, with a cautious outlook due to signs of softness in the labor market.
Regional Market Performance: Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi both experienced declines, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 also fell in early trading.
U.S. Stock Futures and Nvidia: U.S. stock futures showed slight gains following President Trump's approval of Nvidia's chip sales to China, which includes a significant payment to the U.S. government, while major U.S. indices saw minor declines overnight.
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- Nvidia's Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has surged over 700% in the past three years, pushing its market capitalization beyond $4 trillion, making it the largest company globally, which highlights its dominant position in high-performance AI applications and attracts significant investor interest.
- Oracle's Market Challenges: Oracle, with a market cap of $440 billion, has seen its stock drop over 52% since last September, primarily due to high spending on AI infrastructure and a debt exceeding $100 billion, raising concerns about its financial health among investors.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Oracle's recent Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $16.05 billion, with net income soaring 95% to $6.13 billion, including a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain, showcasing its strong growth potential in the cloud computing sector.
- Future Growth Expectations: Despite facing debt pressures, Oracle's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 19.8, indicating that its stock is at a two-year low, and analysts expect significant revenue growth in the future, potentially providing a good buying opportunity for investors.
- Strong Debut Performance: Montage Technology's shares surged approximately 60% on their Hong Kong debut, climbing from the offering price of HK$106.89 to HK$171, indicating robust market demand for its high-performance semiconductors and reinforcing its position in the cloud computing and AI sectors.
- Significant Fundraising: The IPO raised $902 million, reflecting strong investor interest in Chinese AI and semiconductor firms, particularly as the public tranche was oversubscribed by more than 700 times and the international offering was nearly 38 times covered.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite Montage's successful listing, competition is heating up, with Huawei and its chip unit HiSilicon holding a leading share of the domestic market, suggesting that the push for self-sufficiency will lead to fiercer rivalry within the industry.
- Evolving Policy Landscape: As the Chinese government intensifies efforts for self-sufficiency in advanced chips, the recent approval for Nvidia's H200 imports under specific conditions highlights the uncertainty in policy that could impact market dynamics.
- AI Memory Chip Progress: Samsung is close to securing Nvidia's certification for its latest AI memory chip, HBM4, with shipments to Nvidia and AMD expected next month, thereby addressing the growing demand for memory chips and enhancing the company's position in the competitive semiconductor market.
- Market Rebound: Tech stocks and the broader market rebounded on Friday, with Nvidia shares rising nearly 8%, reflecting investor confidence in the recovery of the chip industry, although Nvidia's stock remains down 11% from its peak on November 3, indicating market volatility.
- Supply-Demand Dynamics: The ongoing shortage of memory chips has driven up shares of chipmakers like Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital, as investors anticipate robust demand and rising prices, providing a favorable backdrop for Samsung's market performance.
- Regulatory Challenges: Nvidia is awaiting approval for the sale of its H200 chips in China; while Beijing is close to approving imports, the U.S. is considering additional restrictions, and this complex diplomatic situation may impact Nvidia's market performance and stock price fluctuations.
- Historical Trend Analysis: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 on February 8, 2026, and historical data indicates that significant psychological milestones typically do not lead to market downturns; instead, they often propel the index higher, as seen with a 19% increase following the 30,000 mark.
- Earnings Drive: The continuous growth of corporate earnings among Dow components is a critical factor driving stock prices upward, and if this trend persists, the index is expected to keep rising, reflecting strong economic fundamentals.
- Macroeconomic Factors: While macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth can impact the market, there are currently no signs of dramatic negative swings in these metrics, maintaining an optimistic market sentiment.
- Future Outlook: Despite the risks of an AI bubble burst, the Dow's composition has a low proportion of tech stocks, with major components like Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar likely to continue supporting the index, prompting investors to prepare for a potential rise to 60,000.
- Market Value Surge: Since the beginning of 2023, Nvidia has added $3.9 trillion in market value, becoming Wall Street's most valuable public company, reflecting its strong competitive advantages and market demand in the AI sector.
- GPU Dominance: Nvidia's GPUs account for over 90% of the market in AI data centers, ensuring the company's leading position in technological innovation with superior computing capabilities and a gross margin of 70%.
- Innovation Cycle Risks: While Nvidia's strategy of launching a new GPU annually aims to maintain its competitive edge, this rapid innovation could lead to a depreciation of older chips by 30% to 50%, potentially affecting customer upgrade decisions and future demand.
- Software Platform Support: The CUDA software platform enhances customer loyalty to Nvidia's products, and ongoing technological advancements keep older chips highly efficient, which may slow down demand for new GPUs.
- Market Value Surge: Since the beginning of 2023, Nvidia has added $390 billion in market value, reflecting strong demand in the AI sector and solidifying its position as the world's most valuable public company.
- GPU Market Dominance: Nvidia's GPUs account for over 90% of the market in AI-accelerated data centers, ensuring pricing power and profitability with gross margins exceeding 70%, which strengthens its competitive edge.
- Innovation Cycle Risks: While Nvidia's strategy of launching a new GPU annually aims to maintain its technological advantage, this rapid innovation could lead to significant depreciation of older chips, potentially impacting businesses' upgrade decisions and suppressing demand for new products in the coming years.
- Software Platform Support: Nvidia's CUDA software platform enhances customer loyalty to its products, and ongoing advancements allow older chips to remain highly effective, reducing the urgency for customers to upgrade to the latest GPUs, which may affect future sales growth.











