Ambev Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Mixed Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ABEV?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Ambev's Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS stood at R$0.28, aligning with expectations, while revenue reached R$24.81 billion, down 8.2% year-over-year but beating estimates by R$210 million, showcasing resilience amid challenges.
- Volume Decline: Consolidated volumes fell by 3.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting weak market demand that may pose challenges for future sales growth and overall market positioning.
- EBITDA Growth: Despite the volume drop, normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which bolstered profitability during a tough quarter.
- Future Outlook: Looking ahead to 2026, Ambev remains optimistic about the beer category, anticipating a 4.5% to 7.5% increase in cash COGS per hectoliter, while planning to enhance consumer engagement during the upcoming FIFA World Cup to capitalize on market opportunities.
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Analyst Views on ABEV
Wall Street analysts forecast ABEV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABEV is 2.77 USD with a low forecast of 1.95 USD and a high forecast of 4.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 3.000
Low
1.95
Averages
2.77
High
4.00
Current: 3.000
Low
1.95
Averages
2.77
High
4.00
About ABEV
Ambev SA, formerly Inbev Participacoes Societarias SA, is a Brazil-based company engaged in the brewing sector. The Company produces, distributes and sells beer, carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and other non-alcoholic and non-carbonated (NANC) beverages across the Americas. The Company's activities are divided into three segments: Latin America North, including sell of beer, CSD and NANC drinks in Brazil, as well as operations in the Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent, Antigua, Dominica, Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Barbados and Panama; Latin America South, distributing products in Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile; and Canada, represented by Labatt’s operations, which comprises sales in Canada and some exports to the U.S. market. The Company markets products under various brand names, such as Adriatica, Brahma, Leffe, Budweiser, Corona, PepsiCo and Lipton. It is a subsidiary of Interbrew International BV.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ambev Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Ambev (ABEV) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.05, reflecting an 83.9% year-over-year decline, indicating significant profitability pressure on the company.
- Revenue Forecast Decline: The consensus revenue estimate stands at $4.69 billion, down 82.7% year-over-year, highlighting the sales challenges Ambev faces in the current market environment, which may impact its short-term financial performance.
- Historical Performance Record: Over the past two years, Ambev has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting, although recent estimates have seen downward adjustments.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating a weakening analyst confidence in the company's future performance.
See More
Ambev Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Highlights: Ambev's Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS stood at R$0.28, aligning with expectations, while revenue reached R$24.81 billion, down 8.2% year-over-year but beating estimates by R$210 million, showcasing resilience amid challenges.
- Volume Decline: Consolidated volumes fell by 3.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting weak market demand that may pose challenges for future sales growth and overall market positioning.
- EBITDA Growth: Despite the volume drop, normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which bolstered profitability during a tough quarter.
- Future Outlook: Looking ahead to 2026, Ambev remains optimistic about the beer category, anticipating a 4.5% to 7.5% increase in cash COGS per hectoliter, while planning to enhance consumer engagement during the upcoming FIFA World Cup to capitalize on market opportunities.
See More
Analysts Upgrade Outlook: JRONY and ABEV Stand Out
- Analyst Sentiment Boost: As earnings season approaches, analysts have upgraded Jerónimo Martins (JRONY) to an A+ EPS revision grade with a quant rating of 4.26, indicating strong confidence in its near-term performance, which could drive stock price appreciation.
- Strong Performance from Ambev: Ambev (ABEV) has received an A EPS revision grade and a quant rating of 4.86, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future profitability, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Consumer Sector Outlook: This analysis focuses on the consumer staples sector (XLP), ranking companies by positive EPS revisions, revealing increased market confidence in several firms, which may lead to improved overall sector performance.
- Market Sentiment Shift: With analysts raising EPS expectations for multiple companies, investors should monitor these stocks closely to capitalize on potential investment opportunities, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
See More
Consumer Staples ETF XLP Underperforms in Q4 with a Rating of 2.28
- ETF Performance: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) underperformed in Q4 with a marginal loss of 0.73%, contrasting with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gain of 2%, indicating a defensive lag in risk-on market conditions.
- Quant Rating Analysis: According to Seeking Alpha's quant model, XLP received a rating of 2.28, ranking as the second-lowest among 11 sector-based ETFs, only above the real estate ETF (XLRE), reflecting a lack of market confidence in consumer staples.
- Stock Rating Highlights: Ambev (ABEV) achieved a Strong Buy rating of 4.86, while United Natural Foods (UNFI) received a rating of 4.73, indicating these companies' relative strength in the current economic environment, potentially attracting investor interest.
- Future Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs Research noted that despite structural headwinds in the consumer staples sector, attractive and profitable categories such as nicotine, energy drinks, and beauty products are still worth investing in for 2026, suggesting optimism in specific sub-sectors.
See More
Ambev S.A. Sees Surge in Options Market Volatility
- Surge in Options Volatility: Ambev S.A.'s January 16, 2026 $0.50 call option exhibits some of the highest implied volatility, indicating that the market anticipates significant price movements, potentially linked to an upcoming event that could impact trading strategies.
- Analyst Downgrades: Over the past 60 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while one has lowered it, resulting in a drop in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 6 cents to 5 cents per share, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's prospects.
- Poor Industry Ranking: Ambev holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) in the Beverages - Alcohol sector, placing it in the bottom 7% of the industry rankings, which indicates challenges in a competitive market that may affect its stock performance.
- Impact on Trading Strategies: Given that options traders often seek to sell high implied volatility options, Ambev's current market conditions may attract traders looking to capitalize on volatility decay, potentially leading to increased trading activity in the short term.
See More
Ambev (ABEV) Shares Rise 3.04% with Trading Volume 18% Above Average
- Price Recovery: Ambev's stock rose 3.04% on Tuesday to close at $2.37, despite a 7% decline over the past week, indicating volatility in market sentiment.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 47.5 million shares, nearly 18% above the three-month average of 39.9 million shares, suggesting increased investor interest in the stock.
- Divergent Investor Sentiment: Some investment firms have increased their holdings in Ambev, while others recommend taking profits, reflecting mixed views on the company's future performance.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Although Bernstein downgraded Ambev from
See More
Ambev Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Ambev (ABEV) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.05, reflecting an 83.9% year-over-year decline, indicating significant profitability pressure on the company.
- Revenue Forecast Decline: The consensus revenue estimate stands at $4.69 billion, down 82.7% year-over-year, highlighting the sales challenges Ambev faces in the current market environment, which may impact its short-term financial performance.
- Historical Performance Record: Over the past two years, Ambev has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting, although recent estimates have seen downward adjustments.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating a weakening analyst confidence in the company's future performance.
See More
Ambev Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Highlights: Ambev's Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS stood at R$0.28, aligning with expectations, while revenue reached R$24.81 billion, down 8.2% year-over-year but beating estimates by R$210 million, showcasing resilience amid challenges.
- Volume Decline: Consolidated volumes fell by 3.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting weak market demand that may pose challenges for future sales growth and overall market positioning.
- EBITDA Growth: Despite the volume drop, normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which bolstered profitability during a tough quarter.
- Future Outlook: Looking ahead to 2026, Ambev remains optimistic about the beer category, anticipating a 4.5% to 7.5% increase in cash COGS per hectoliter, while planning to enhance consumer engagement during the upcoming FIFA World Cup to capitalize on market opportunities.
See More
Analysts Upgrade Outlook: JRONY and ABEV Stand Out
- Analyst Sentiment Boost: As earnings season approaches, analysts have upgraded Jerónimo Martins (JRONY) to an A+ EPS revision grade with a quant rating of 4.26, indicating strong confidence in its near-term performance, which could drive stock price appreciation.
- Strong Performance from Ambev: Ambev (ABEV) has received an A EPS revision grade and a quant rating of 4.86, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future profitability, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Consumer Sector Outlook: This analysis focuses on the consumer staples sector (XLP), ranking companies by positive EPS revisions, revealing increased market confidence in several firms, which may lead to improved overall sector performance.
- Market Sentiment Shift: With analysts raising EPS expectations for multiple companies, investors should monitor these stocks closely to capitalize on potential investment opportunities, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
See More
Consumer Staples ETF XLP Underperforms in Q4 with a Rating of 2.28
- ETF Performance: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) underperformed in Q4 with a marginal loss of 0.73%, contrasting with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gain of 2%, indicating a defensive lag in risk-on market conditions.
- Quant Rating Analysis: According to Seeking Alpha's quant model, XLP received a rating of 2.28, ranking as the second-lowest among 11 sector-based ETFs, only above the real estate ETF (XLRE), reflecting a lack of market confidence in consumer staples.
- Stock Rating Highlights: Ambev (ABEV) achieved a Strong Buy rating of 4.86, while United Natural Foods (UNFI) received a rating of 4.73, indicating these companies' relative strength in the current economic environment, potentially attracting investor interest.
- Future Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs Research noted that despite structural headwinds in the consumer staples sector, attractive and profitable categories such as nicotine, energy drinks, and beauty products are still worth investing in for 2026, suggesting optimism in specific sub-sectors.
See More
Ambev S.A. Sees Surge in Options Market Volatility
- Surge in Options Volatility: Ambev S.A.'s January 16, 2026 $0.50 call option exhibits some of the highest implied volatility, indicating that the market anticipates significant price movements, potentially linked to an upcoming event that could impact trading strategies.
- Analyst Downgrades: Over the past 60 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while one has lowered it, resulting in a drop in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 6 cents to 5 cents per share, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the company's prospects.
- Poor Industry Ranking: Ambev holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) in the Beverages - Alcohol sector, placing it in the bottom 7% of the industry rankings, which indicates challenges in a competitive market that may affect its stock performance.
- Impact on Trading Strategies: Given that options traders often seek to sell high implied volatility options, Ambev's current market conditions may attract traders looking to capitalize on volatility decay, potentially leading to increased trading activity in the short term.
See More
Ambev (ABEV) Shares Rise 3.04% with Trading Volume 18% Above Average
- Price Recovery: Ambev's stock rose 3.04% on Tuesday to close at $2.37, despite a 7% decline over the past week, indicating volatility in market sentiment.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 47.5 million shares, nearly 18% above the three-month average of 39.9 million shares, suggesting increased investor interest in the stock.
- Divergent Investor Sentiment: Some investment firms have increased their holdings in Ambev, while others recommend taking profits, reflecting mixed views on the company's future performance.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Although Bernstein downgraded Ambev from
See More
