AI Giants or Small-Cap Recovery? ETFs to Monitor as Morgan Stanley Targets S&P 500 at 7,800
Morgan Stanley's Forecast: Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end 2026 forecast for the S&P 500 to 7,800, citing stronger earnings and productivity gains from AI adoption, while UBS expects the index to reach 7,500 by the end of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The bank predicts a two-speed market rally, with mega-cap tech stocks leading the AI boom and small caps potentially outperforming as the Fed cuts rates and business confidence improves.
ETF Opportunities: Key ETFs like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are positioned to benefit from the expected surge in capital expenditures and small-cap growth.
Equal-Weight Strategies: Equal-weight ETFs, such as Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), may provide balanced exposure and reduce concentration risk, appealing to investors looking to capitalize on both tech leadership and small-cap recovery.
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- Record Sales Performance: Apple reported $26 billion in iPhone sales in Q4 2025, marking a 38% year-over-year increase, which underscores strong market demand and brand appeal.
- Color Influence: The newly launched 'cosmic orange' color, which phonetically resembles the Mandarin word for 'success', has led many Chinese consumers to showcase their orange devices on social media, further driving sales growth.
- Consumer Psychology: Many Chinese consumers have taken to the internet to post the phrase 'May all your wishes turn orange', reflecting how cultural factors can influence purchasing decisions and contribute to the iPhone 17's popularity.
- Design Changes Driving Demand: IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal noted that the external design changes of the iPhone 17, particularly the introduction of the orange color, significantly increased demand among early upgraders, thereby solidifying Apple's competitive position in the market.
- Artemis II Mission: NASA is set to launch the Artemis II mission next month, featuring a crew of three Americans and one Canadian who will embark on a 10-day lunar flyby to test hardware and systems for future moon landings.
- iPhones in Space: For the first time, astronauts will carry iPhones provided by Apple, marking a significant milestone as smartphones are utilized in a space mission, although they have been safely used in commercial space flights for about a decade, reflecting NASA's embrace of modern technology.
- Timeline Adjustments: Originally scheduled for early February, the Artemis II launch has been postponed to March, with NASA emphasizing that this operational urgency will facilitate high-value scientific research both in orbit and on the lunar surface.
- Crew-12 Mission Context: The Crew-12 mission is slated for launch on February 11, sending four astronauts to the International Space Station for a six-month mission, further showcasing the effectiveness of NASA's collaboration with SpaceX.
- Cold Call Insight: At age 12, Steve Jobs made a cold call to HP co-founder Bill Hewlett, securing electronic parts and a summer job, an experience that not only launched his career but also highlighted the importance of proactively seeking help.
- Value of Taking Risks: Jobs emphasized that many miss out on opportunities due to fear of asking, arguing that the willingness to take risks and face rejection is crucial for success, enabling dreams to become reality.
- Career Impact: His experience at HP sparked a deep interest in electronics, laying the groundwork for his future entrepreneurial ventures and providing essential technical knowledge that contributed to the founding of Apple.
- Inspiring Young People: Jobs' story encourages youth to pursue their dreams, stressing the significance of reaching out and seeking mentorship, particularly in the fast-evolving tech industry.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Following earnings calls from tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, investor confusion about future directions led to Amazon losing over $300 billion in market cap, reflecting strong skepticism regarding its $200 billion AI investment plan.
- Capital Expenditure Comparison: Google announced an increase in capital expenditures to $175 billion to $185 billion, exceeding the expected $115 billion to $120 billion, indicating a proactive approach in AI despite challenges from slowing ad revenues.
- Changing Competitive Landscape: With Alphabet's ongoing investments and successes in AI, YouTube's user base has grown to 750 million, and Waymo's self-driving business is outpacing Tesla, suggesting a strengthening competitive advantage that may attract more investor interest.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite OpenAI and Anthropic's strong performance in AI, Microsoft's Copilot sales have been disappointing, highlighting investor concerns about its future growth and reflecting differing levels of confidence across companies.
- Stock Buyback Plan: Disney is guiding for a $7 billion stock buyback in fiscal 2026, doubling its 2025 plan, indicating management's confidence in the stock's undervaluation, supported by $19 billion in operating cash flow and $10 billion in free cash flow for this initiative.
- Cash Flow Status: With capital expenditures projected at $9 billion, the remaining free cash flow will cover both the buyback and approximately $2.6 billion in dividend expenses, demonstrating Disney's ability to maintain healthy cash flow while returning value to shareholders.
- Market Performance: Although Disney's streaming service is growing slowly and its linear networks face challenges, the experiences segment, particularly parks and the rapidly growing cruise business, remains a strong cash cow supporting overall financial performance.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: With the streaming business now profitable and margins improving, alongside guidance for double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth, Disney stands out as a compelling value stock to buy in February.
- Buyback Program Scale: Disney is guiding for a $7 billion stock buyback in fiscal 2026, which is double the amount from fiscal 2025 and the second-largest annual buyback plan ever, indicating management's confidence in the stock being undervalued.
- Strong Cash Flow: For fiscal 2026, Disney projects $19 billion in cash from operations, leaving $10 billion in free cash flow after $9 billion in capital expenditures to fund buybacks and approximately $2.6 billion in dividend expenses, ensuring the sustainability of the buyback program.
- Impact on Share Count: The $7 billion buyback could reduce Disney's outstanding shares by about 67.5 million, or 3.8% of total shares, significantly enhancing earnings per share and shareholder value, akin to Apple's successful buyback strategy over the past decade.
- Long-Term Growth Strategy: Despite the substantial buyback, Disney continues to invest heavily in expanding its cruise fleet, renovating parks, and producing content, demonstrating a commitment to long-term growth potential while returning value to shareholders.











