Rocket Lab Faces Revenue Loss After Mars Sample Return Project Termination
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 01 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RKLB?
Source: Fool
Rocket Lab's stock is down 5.18% in pre-market trading, hitting a 5-day low amid broader market declines.
The termination of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) project due to budget cuts by Congress has resulted in Rocket Lab losing a potential $4 billion contract, which would have significantly boosted its revenue. This loss is projected to impact 74% of the company's forecasted $900 million revenue for 2026, raising concerns among investors about future financial performance. Despite this setback, Rocket Lab is still expected to achieve profitability by 2027, driven by the launch of its new reusable rocket, Neutron.
The cancellation of the MSR project has disappointed investors, but there remains cautious optimism about Rocket Lab's future prospects, particularly with its ongoing commitment to launching new missions and expanding its market presence.
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Analyst Views on RKLB
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RKLB is 73.11 USD with a low forecast of 60.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 66.320
Low
60.00
Averages
73.11
High
90.00
Current: 66.320
Low
60.00
Averages
73.11
High
90.00
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rocket Lab's Future Growth Potential Looks Promising
- Significant Revenue Growth: Rocket Lab reported $155 million in sales for Q3 2025, reflecting a 48% year-over-year increase, indicating strong performance in the small-launch services market and potential for further market share expansion.
- Strong Backlog: The company ended Q3 2025 with a launch backlog of $509.7 million, a 56% year-over-year improvement, providing long-term revenue visibility and an expectation to recognize approximately 57% of this backlog within the next 12 months.
- New Rocket Project Boost: Rocket Lab plans to launch its medium-lift reusable rocket, Neutron, in 2026, which is expected to enhance revenue per launch and attract more clients, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position in the market.
- Acquisitions Enhance Competitiveness: By acquiring companies like Geost and Mynaric, Rocket Lab has improved product quality and reduced long-term costs, positioning itself as a one-stop shop for space solutions and solidifying its leadership in the industry.
See More
Space Economy Set for Strong Growth Cycle
- Optimistic Market Outlook: According to McKinsey, the global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, indicating strong growth potential that attracts investor interest.
- Rocket Lab's Competitiveness: Rocket Lab has achieved 81 launches in the U.S., making it the second-largest launch company after SpaceX, and its upcoming Neutron rocket aims to carry payloads 40 times larger than its current Electron rocket, enhancing profit margins and market competitiveness.
- AST SpaceMobile's Strategic Partnerships: AST SpaceMobile has secured significant agreements with telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon to provide broadband coverage through its satellite network, with revenue expected to grow from $57 million in 2025 to $1.94 billion by 2028, showcasing its market potential.
- Divergent Profitability Expectations: While both companies are currently unprofitable, analysts project Rocket Lab will achieve profitability by 2027, whereas AST SpaceMobile is expected to reach it by 2028, reflecting differing market perceptions of their future developments.
See More
Rocket Lab Secures $816 Million Contract with U.S. Space Force
- Major Contract Awarded: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract from the U.S. Space Force in December to design and manufacture 18 satellites, elevating its total defense contract value above $1 billion and solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab from 'Equal Weight' to 'Overweight', raising its price target from $67 to $105, citing the company's proven execution capabilities in the capacity-constrained medium-lift market as a key driver.
- Successful Rocket Launches: The company successfully launched two rockets in January, surpassing the 80-mission mark, which reflects its high-level execution and boosts investor confidence in its operational capabilities.
- Execution Risks Emerge: Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces significant execution risks, particularly after NASA canceled the $4 billion Mars Sample Return program and a testing failure in the Neutron rocket program, raising concerns among investors about future performance.
See More
Rocket Lab Stock Continues to Climb Amid Major Contracts
- Defense Contract Boost: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract with the U.S. Space Force on December 19 to design and manufacture 18 satellites, bringing its total defense contract value above $1 billion, solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
- Stock Price Surge: The stock rose 14.8% in January 2025, driven by positive news and Morgan Stanley's upgrade from 'Equal Weight' to 'Overweight,' raising the price target from $67 to $105, reflecting strong market confidence.
- Successful Launches: Rocket Lab successfully launched two rockets on January 22 and 30, surpassing the 80-mission milestone, showcasing its efficient launch execution and further boosting investor confidence in its operational capabilities.
- Facing Challenges: Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces execution risks, particularly after Congress canceled the $4 billion Mars Sample Return program and a testing failure in its Neutron rocket program, which could impact future growth prospects.
See More
VBK Stock Price Analysis and ETF Dynamics
- Stock Price Fluctuation: VBK's 52-week low is $214.77 and high is $329.04, with the latest trade at $305.86, indicating significant price movement that may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess the long-term trend of the stock.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs highlights those experiencing notable inflows or outflows, which can affect the performance of individual stocks held within the ETFs, reflecting shifts in market demand for specific assets.
See More
Rocket Lab Loses Mars Sample Return Opportunity Amid Market Pressure
- Mars Sample Return Setback: Congress's decision to decline funding for the 2031 Mars sample-return mission effectively ends Rocket Lab's chance to secure a $4 billion contract, significantly undermining its long-term growth narrative and potential for high-margin deep-space missions.
- Market Pressure Intensifies: Rocket Lab shares fell 6.58% to $68.34, reflecting broader market weakness as the S&P 500 dropped 1.35% and the Nasdaq-100 slipped 1.61%, indicating the stock's strong correlation with overall market trends.
- Technical Indicators Show Mixed Momentum: Despite a 138.5% increase over the past year, the stock is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, suggesting potential further downside pressure, with key support at $67.00.
- Earnings Outlook Positive: Investors are looking forward to the earnings report on February 26, with an estimated loss of 9 cents per share and revenue of $178.07 million, indicating potential for revenue growth, while analysts maintain a “Buy” rating with a price target of $64.00.
See More
Rocket Lab's Future Growth Potential Looks Promising
- Significant Revenue Growth: Rocket Lab reported $155 million in sales for Q3 2025, reflecting a 48% year-over-year increase, indicating strong performance in the small-launch services market and potential for further market share expansion.
- Strong Backlog: The company ended Q3 2025 with a launch backlog of $509.7 million, a 56% year-over-year improvement, providing long-term revenue visibility and an expectation to recognize approximately 57% of this backlog within the next 12 months.
- New Rocket Project Boost: Rocket Lab plans to launch its medium-lift reusable rocket, Neutron, in 2026, which is expected to enhance revenue per launch and attract more clients, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position in the market.
- Acquisitions Enhance Competitiveness: By acquiring companies like Geost and Mynaric, Rocket Lab has improved product quality and reduced long-term costs, positioning itself as a one-stop shop for space solutions and solidifying its leadership in the industry.
See More
Space Economy Set for Strong Growth Cycle
- Optimistic Market Outlook: According to McKinsey, the global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, indicating strong growth potential that attracts investor interest.
- Rocket Lab's Competitiveness: Rocket Lab has achieved 81 launches in the U.S., making it the second-largest launch company after SpaceX, and its upcoming Neutron rocket aims to carry payloads 40 times larger than its current Electron rocket, enhancing profit margins and market competitiveness.
- AST SpaceMobile's Strategic Partnerships: AST SpaceMobile has secured significant agreements with telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon to provide broadband coverage through its satellite network, with revenue expected to grow from $57 million in 2025 to $1.94 billion by 2028, showcasing its market potential.
- Divergent Profitability Expectations: While both companies are currently unprofitable, analysts project Rocket Lab will achieve profitability by 2027, whereas AST SpaceMobile is expected to reach it by 2028, reflecting differing market perceptions of their future developments.
See More
Rocket Lab Secures $816 Million Contract with U.S. Space Force
- Major Contract Awarded: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract from the U.S. Space Force in December to design and manufacture 18 satellites, elevating its total defense contract value above $1 billion and solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab from 'Equal Weight' to 'Overweight', raising its price target from $67 to $105, citing the company's proven execution capabilities in the capacity-constrained medium-lift market as a key driver.
- Successful Rocket Launches: The company successfully launched two rockets in January, surpassing the 80-mission mark, which reflects its high-level execution and boosts investor confidence in its operational capabilities.
- Execution Risks Emerge: Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces significant execution risks, particularly after NASA canceled the $4 billion Mars Sample Return program and a testing failure in the Neutron rocket program, raising concerns among investors about future performance.
See More
Rocket Lab Stock Continues to Climb Amid Major Contracts
- Defense Contract Boost: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract with the U.S. Space Force on December 19 to design and manufacture 18 satellites, bringing its total defense contract value above $1 billion, solidifying its position in the aerospace sector.
- Stock Price Surge: The stock rose 14.8% in January 2025, driven by positive news and Morgan Stanley's upgrade from 'Equal Weight' to 'Overweight,' raising the price target from $67 to $105, reflecting strong market confidence.
- Successful Launches: Rocket Lab successfully launched two rockets on January 22 and 30, surpassing the 80-mission milestone, showcasing its efficient launch execution and further boosting investor confidence in its operational capabilities.
- Facing Challenges: Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces execution risks, particularly after Congress canceled the $4 billion Mars Sample Return program and a testing failure in its Neutron rocket program, which could impact future growth prospects.
See More
VBK Stock Price Analysis and ETF Dynamics
- Stock Price Fluctuation: VBK's 52-week low is $214.77 and high is $329.04, with the latest trade at $305.86, indicating significant price movement that may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess the long-term trend of the stock.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs highlights those experiencing notable inflows or outflows, which can affect the performance of individual stocks held within the ETFs, reflecting shifts in market demand for specific assets.
See More
Rocket Lab Loses Mars Sample Return Opportunity Amid Market Pressure
- Mars Sample Return Setback: Congress's decision to decline funding for the 2031 Mars sample-return mission effectively ends Rocket Lab's chance to secure a $4 billion contract, significantly undermining its long-term growth narrative and potential for high-margin deep-space missions.
- Market Pressure Intensifies: Rocket Lab shares fell 6.58% to $68.34, reflecting broader market weakness as the S&P 500 dropped 1.35% and the Nasdaq-100 slipped 1.61%, indicating the stock's strong correlation with overall market trends.
- Technical Indicators Show Mixed Momentum: Despite a 138.5% increase over the past year, the stock is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, suggesting potential further downside pressure, with key support at $67.00.
- Earnings Outlook Positive: Investors are looking forward to the earnings report on February 26, with an estimated loss of 9 cents per share and revenue of $178.07 million, indicating potential for revenue growth, while analysts maintain a “Buy” rating with a price target of $64.00.
See More
