Phillips 66 faces decline amid market strength
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 03 2024
0mins
Should l Buy PSX?
Phillips 66 (PSX) experienced a price drop of 3.02%, hitting a 20-day low, while the broader market showed positive movements with the Nasdaq-100 up 1.49% and the S&P 500 up 0.81%.
This decline is attributed to sector rotation, as Phillips 66's stock performance has been affected despite the overall market strength. The company recently announced a $2.4 billion capital budget for 2026, which includes significant investments in refining and midstream projects, reflecting its commitment to growth and operational efficiency.
The implications of this investment strategy may position Phillips 66 for future growth, but the current market reaction indicates that investors are cautious, leading to a notable decline in stock price despite positive market conditions.
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Analyst Views on PSX
Wall Street analysts forecast PSX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PSX is 132.40 USD with a low forecast of 110.00 USD and a high forecast of 162.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 154.430
Low
110.00
Averages
132.40
High
162.00
Current: 154.430
Low
110.00
Averages
132.40
High
162.00
About PSX
Phillips 66 is a diversified and integrated downstream energy provider that manufactures, transports and markets products. The Company's Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminating and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation, storage, fractionation, gathering, processing and marketing services. Its Chemicals segment consists of its 50% equity investment in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. Its Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasoline, distillates, including aviation fuels. Its Marketing and Specialties segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, mainly in the United States and Europe. Its Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products at the Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex and at its Humber Refinery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BMO Increases Target Price for Phillips 66 to $170, Up from $159
- Price Increase Announcement: Phillips 66 has raised its target price to $170 from a previous $159.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects the company's positive outlook and potential growth in the market.
See More
Phillips 66 to Lay Off Nearly Half of California Refinery Staff
- Layoff Announcement: Phillips 66 will lay off 122 employees at its California refinery effective April 3, reducing the workforce to approximately 300, indicating a significant contraction in the company's refining operations.
- Closure of Historic Refinery: The century-old refinery, which once processed 139,000 barrels of oil per day, has ceased operations as of late last year, marking the end of the company's refining presence in California.
- Total Employee Reduction: This layoff follows a previous notice of 155 job cuts, bringing the total layoffs to 277, reflecting the company's strategic response to market challenges that may impact its market share in California.
- Industry Implications: The reduction in refining operations will negatively affect the employment landscape in California and could disrupt the regional fuel supply chain, intensifying competition within the industry.
See More
Phillips 66 Receives Overweight Rating
- Rating Upgrade: Phillips 66 (PSX) has received an overweight rating, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which may attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Analysis: The average price target set by analysts is $155.16, reflecting market recognition of the company's growth potential, which could drive the stock price closer to this target.
- Increased Market Confidence: An overweight rating typically suggests that analysts believe the stock will outperform its peers, potentially boosting investor confidence in Phillips 66.
- Investor Strategy Adjustment: With the rating upgrade, investors may reassess their portfolios and increase their holdings in Phillips 66, thereby impacting its market performance.
See More
Amazon's Stock Drops Ahead of Earnings Report
- Amazon Earnings Preview: Amazon is set to release its earnings report on Thursday, with its stock dropping 2.4% ahead of the announcement, indicating cautious investor sentiment that may impact short-term market confidence.
- Alphabet's Strong Performance: Alphabet exceeded Wall Street expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report released on Wednesday, although its stock fell about 1% in after-hours trading; the projected capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to reach between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double that of 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to future growth.
- Qualcomm's Disappointing Guidance: Qualcomm reported quarterly earnings that surpassed expectations, yet its stock fell 9% in after-hours trading due to disappointing forward guidance, highlighting investor concerns about future performance, with shares down nearly 13% year-to-date in 2026.
- Strong Consumer Staples Sector: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has risen for four consecutive days, gaining over 1% each day and hitting new highs in the past three sessions, indicating strong performance in 2026 with over 12% growth year-to-date, making it the third-best performing sector in the market.
See More
Phillips 66 Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Strategic Developments
- Strong Financial Performance: Phillips 66 reported Q4 earnings of $2.9 billion or $7.17 per share, with adjusted earnings of $1 billion or $2.47 per share, reflecting significant operational optimization and cost control, which enhances investor confidence.
- Midstream Business Growth: The Midstream segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by 40% since 2022, reaching approximately $1 billion in Q4, with a target run rate of $4.5 billion by year-end 2027, indicating strong growth potential and profitability in this sector.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Asset Optimization: The acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the WRB joint venture increased exposure to Canadian heavy crude differentials by 40%, while the sale of a 65% stake in the Germany and Austria retail business generated $1.5 billion in cash, further optimizing the asset portfolio and enhancing financial flexibility.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects global O&P utilization rates to remain in the mid-90s for 2026, with refining utilization in the low 90s, demonstrating confidence in future market demand, while planning $550 to $600 million in turnaround expenses in 2026 to ensure ongoing operational efficiency.
See More
Phillips 66 Surpasses Q4 Earnings Expectations
- Strong Performance: Phillips 66 reported adjusted earnings of $2.47 per share in Q4, exceeding the market expectation of $2.16, indicating robust profitability that is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved quarterly revenue of $36.3 billion, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $32.06 billion, reflecting its competitive strength and sales capabilities, which may attract more investor interest.
- Robust Cash Flow: The net operating cash flow was $2.8 billion, with $2.0 billion excluding working capital, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities that support future investments and expansions.
- High Refining Utilization: Refining utilization climbed to 99% with clean product yield at 88%, enhancing production efficiency and potentially providing a competitive edge in future market conditions.
See More
BMO Increases Target Price for Phillips 66 to $170, Up from $159
- Price Increase Announcement: Phillips 66 has raised its target price to $170 from a previous $159.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects the company's positive outlook and potential growth in the market.
See More
Phillips 66 to Lay Off Nearly Half of California Refinery Staff
- Layoff Announcement: Phillips 66 will lay off 122 employees at its California refinery effective April 3, reducing the workforce to approximately 300, indicating a significant contraction in the company's refining operations.
- Closure of Historic Refinery: The century-old refinery, which once processed 139,000 barrels of oil per day, has ceased operations as of late last year, marking the end of the company's refining presence in California.
- Total Employee Reduction: This layoff follows a previous notice of 155 job cuts, bringing the total layoffs to 277, reflecting the company's strategic response to market challenges that may impact its market share in California.
- Industry Implications: The reduction in refining operations will negatively affect the employment landscape in California and could disrupt the regional fuel supply chain, intensifying competition within the industry.
See More
Phillips 66 Receives Overweight Rating
- Rating Upgrade: Phillips 66 (PSX) has received an overweight rating, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which may attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Analysis: The average price target set by analysts is $155.16, reflecting market recognition of the company's growth potential, which could drive the stock price closer to this target.
- Increased Market Confidence: An overweight rating typically suggests that analysts believe the stock will outperform its peers, potentially boosting investor confidence in Phillips 66.
- Investor Strategy Adjustment: With the rating upgrade, investors may reassess their portfolios and increase their holdings in Phillips 66, thereby impacting its market performance.
See More
Amazon's Stock Drops Ahead of Earnings Report
- Amazon Earnings Preview: Amazon is set to release its earnings report on Thursday, with its stock dropping 2.4% ahead of the announcement, indicating cautious investor sentiment that may impact short-term market confidence.
- Alphabet's Strong Performance: Alphabet exceeded Wall Street expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report released on Wednesday, although its stock fell about 1% in after-hours trading; the projected capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to reach between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double that of 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to future growth.
- Qualcomm's Disappointing Guidance: Qualcomm reported quarterly earnings that surpassed expectations, yet its stock fell 9% in after-hours trading due to disappointing forward guidance, highlighting investor concerns about future performance, with shares down nearly 13% year-to-date in 2026.
- Strong Consumer Staples Sector: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has risen for four consecutive days, gaining over 1% each day and hitting new highs in the past three sessions, indicating strong performance in 2026 with over 12% growth year-to-date, making it the third-best performing sector in the market.
See More
Phillips 66 Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Strategic Developments
- Strong Financial Performance: Phillips 66 reported Q4 earnings of $2.9 billion or $7.17 per share, with adjusted earnings of $1 billion or $2.47 per share, reflecting significant operational optimization and cost control, which enhances investor confidence.
- Midstream Business Growth: The Midstream segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by 40% since 2022, reaching approximately $1 billion in Q4, with a target run rate of $4.5 billion by year-end 2027, indicating strong growth potential and profitability in this sector.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Asset Optimization: The acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the WRB joint venture increased exposure to Canadian heavy crude differentials by 40%, while the sale of a 65% stake in the Germany and Austria retail business generated $1.5 billion in cash, further optimizing the asset portfolio and enhancing financial flexibility.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects global O&P utilization rates to remain in the mid-90s for 2026, with refining utilization in the low 90s, demonstrating confidence in future market demand, while planning $550 to $600 million in turnaround expenses in 2026 to ensure ongoing operational efficiency.
See More
Phillips 66 Surpasses Q4 Earnings Expectations
- Strong Performance: Phillips 66 reported adjusted earnings of $2.47 per share in Q4, exceeding the market expectation of $2.16, indicating robust profitability that is likely to boost investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved quarterly revenue of $36.3 billion, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $32.06 billion, reflecting its competitive strength and sales capabilities, which may attract more investor interest.
- Robust Cash Flow: The net operating cash flow was $2.8 billion, with $2.0 billion excluding working capital, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities that support future investments and expansions.
- High Refining Utilization: Refining utilization climbed to 99% with clean product yield at 88%, enhancing production efficiency and potentially providing a competitive edge in future market conditions.
See More
