Microsoft Faces Investigation Amid Significant Stock Drop
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 08 2024
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Coinmarketcap
Microsoft Corp shares fell 3.00% and hit a 20-day low amid ongoing investigations into potential securities violations. DJS Law Group is investigating whether Microsoft issued misleading statements regarding its financial health, particularly after CFO Amy Hood revealed that 45% of the commercial RPO balance is tied to OpenAI, which led to a nearly 10% drop in stock price following the Q2 earnings report. This situation has raised concerns among investors about the company's transparency and future profitability.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSFT is 631.36 USD with a low forecast of 500.00 USD and a high forecast of 678.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 393.670
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 393.670
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Microsoft Faces Challenges and Opportunities in AI Business
- Performance Concerns: Microsoft's fiscal Q2 2026 results revealed strong overall performance; however, modest weaknesses in AI software and cloud services led to a more than 10% drop in stock price in one day, raising investor concerns about future growth.
- Copilot License Sales Growth: As of Q2 2026, Microsoft 365's Copilot licenses reached 15 million, doubling year-over-year but representing only a 3.7% market penetration, indicating limited market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Revenue Growth Slowdown: Azure's revenue grew 39% year-over-year in Q2, surpassing Wall Street's 37.1% forecast, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, suggesting a potential loss of momentum that may affect investor confidence.
- Data Center Capacity Shortage: Microsoft's order backlog surged 110% year-over-year to $625 billion, with 45% from OpenAI, which may limit Azure's expansion and increase investment risks due to reliance on external funding and revenue growth.
See More
Microsoft Reports Strong Earnings Amid Stock Decline
- Strong Earnings but Stock Drop: Microsoft reported strong results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter, yet its stock fell over 10% due to modest weakness in AI software and cloud services, now down 22% from its record high, reflecting market concerns about future growth.
- Slow Copilot License Sales: As of the fiscal 2026 second quarter, only 15 million Copilot licenses for Microsoft 365 were sold, doubling year-over-year but representing a mere 3.7% market penetration, indicating insufficient market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Growth Deceleration: Azure achieved a 39% year-over-year growth rate in the second quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, with a staggering 110% year-over-year increase in order backlog to $625 billion due to data center capacity shortages, highlighting potential growth bottlenecks.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: With a current P/E ratio of 26.5, Microsoft is at its lowest valuation in three years, significantly lower than the Nasdaq-100's 32.8, and analysts project earnings to rise to $19.06 per share in fiscal 2027, resulting in a forward P/E of just 22.4, suggesting a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
See More
AI Companies Show Robust Growth Outlook
- Microsoft's Investment Outlook: Microsoft is leveraging $77 billion in free cash flow to invest in data centers, software development, and chips, positioning itself for long-term leadership in AI software despite some analysts' concerns about its capital spending plans, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth in the future.
- Surge in Market Demand: The paid seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot surged 160% year-over-year last quarter, indicating that businesses are willing to pay extra for AI features for their employees, which not only enhances the company's revenue potential but also reflects the widespread adoption of AI in enterprises.
- Nvidia's Market Dominance: Nvidia has led the GPU market for about 20 years, with a remarkable 62% year-over-year revenue growth and $77 billion in free cash flow, and its innovation capabilities position it favorably in the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape, expected to continue delivering high margins for shareholders.
- Future Growth Potential: Nvidia's forward P/E ratio stands at 24, with analysts projecting its earnings to grow at a compound annual rate of 37% over the next several years, making this valuation highly attractive and reflecting market confidence in its ongoing innovation and growth trajectory.
See More
Microsoft and Broadcom: Winners in AI Investment
- Microsoft Cloud Growth: Microsoft (MSFT) reported a 26% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue last quarter, indicating that AI services are becoming a key growth driver, which is expected to further enhance overall revenue growth.
- Data Center Investments: Microsoft is investing in data centers and AI chips, such as the Maia 200 custom AI accelerator, to meet the growing demand for AI cloud services, with Azure platform revenue up 39% year-over-year, reflecting strong market demand.
- Broadcom's Strong Performance: Broadcom (AVGO) posted a 39% year-over-year increase in adjusted net income last quarter, reaching $9.7 billion, with total revenue growing 28%, primarily driven by surging demand for AI accelerators, showcasing its industry leadership.
- Shareholder Return Program: Broadcom paid $2.8 billion in cash dividends in the fourth quarter and has consistently increased dividends over the past decade, with a current yield of 0.73%, reflecting its strong profitability and commitment to shareholders.
See More
Investor Confusion in AI Competition
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Following earnings calls from tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, investor confusion about future directions led to Amazon losing over $300 billion in market cap, reflecting strong skepticism regarding its $200 billion AI investment plan.
- Capital Expenditure Comparison: Google announced an increase in capital expenditures to $175 billion to $185 billion, exceeding the expected $115 billion to $120 billion, indicating a proactive approach in AI despite challenges from slowing ad revenues.
- Changing Competitive Landscape: With Alphabet's ongoing investments and successes in AI, YouTube's user base has grown to 750 million, and Waymo's self-driving business is outpacing Tesla, suggesting a strengthening competitive advantage that may attract more investor interest.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite OpenAI and Anthropic's strong performance in AI, Microsoft's Copilot sales have been disappointing, highlighting investor concerns about its future growth and reflecting differing levels of confidence across companies.
See More
Bill Gates' Philanthropic Investment Strategy
- Charitable Donation Scale: Bill Gates has donated the vast majority of his wealth to the Gates Foundation over the decades, planning to give away nearly all of his remaining wealth over the next 20 years, reflecting his strong commitment to philanthropy.
- Investment Concentration: Approximately 59% of the Gates Foundation's marketable equity portfolio is concentrated in three major stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway accounting for 28.5%, indicating a highly concentrated investment strategy favoring quality assets.
- Berkshire Hathaway Performance: As of the third quarter, the foundation holds 21.8 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, valued at about $11 billion, and despite market fluctuations, the foundation plans to continue holding these quality assets.
- WM and Canadian National Railway: The Gates Foundation also holds stakes in WM and Canadian National Railway, representing 17% and 13.3% of its assets respectively, both companies possess strong market positions and stable profitability in their respective industries, showcasing Gates' focus on long-term investments.
See More
Microsoft Faces Challenges and Opportunities in AI Business
- Performance Concerns: Microsoft's fiscal Q2 2026 results revealed strong overall performance; however, modest weaknesses in AI software and cloud services led to a more than 10% drop in stock price in one day, raising investor concerns about future growth.
- Copilot License Sales Growth: As of Q2 2026, Microsoft 365's Copilot licenses reached 15 million, doubling year-over-year but representing only a 3.7% market penetration, indicating limited market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Revenue Growth Slowdown: Azure's revenue grew 39% year-over-year in Q2, surpassing Wall Street's 37.1% forecast, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, suggesting a potential loss of momentum that may affect investor confidence.
- Data Center Capacity Shortage: Microsoft's order backlog surged 110% year-over-year to $625 billion, with 45% from OpenAI, which may limit Azure's expansion and increase investment risks due to reliance on external funding and revenue growth.
See More
Microsoft Reports Strong Earnings Amid Stock Decline
- Strong Earnings but Stock Drop: Microsoft reported strong results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter, yet its stock fell over 10% due to modest weakness in AI software and cloud services, now down 22% from its record high, reflecting market concerns about future growth.
- Slow Copilot License Sales: As of the fiscal 2026 second quarter, only 15 million Copilot licenses for Microsoft 365 were sold, doubling year-over-year but representing a mere 3.7% market penetration, indicating insufficient market uptake that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Azure Growth Deceleration: Azure achieved a 39% year-over-year growth rate in the second quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, yet slower than the previous quarter's 40%, with a staggering 110% year-over-year increase in order backlog to $625 billion due to data center capacity shortages, highlighting potential growth bottlenecks.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: With a current P/E ratio of 26.5, Microsoft is at its lowest valuation in three years, significantly lower than the Nasdaq-100's 32.8, and analysts project earnings to rise to $19.06 per share in fiscal 2027, resulting in a forward P/E of just 22.4, suggesting a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
See More
AI Companies Show Robust Growth Outlook
- Microsoft's Investment Outlook: Microsoft is leveraging $77 billion in free cash flow to invest in data centers, software development, and chips, positioning itself for long-term leadership in AI software despite some analysts' concerns about its capital spending plans, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth in the future.
- Surge in Market Demand: The paid seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot surged 160% year-over-year last quarter, indicating that businesses are willing to pay extra for AI features for their employees, which not only enhances the company's revenue potential but also reflects the widespread adoption of AI in enterprises.
- Nvidia's Market Dominance: Nvidia has led the GPU market for about 20 years, with a remarkable 62% year-over-year revenue growth and $77 billion in free cash flow, and its innovation capabilities position it favorably in the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape, expected to continue delivering high margins for shareholders.
- Future Growth Potential: Nvidia's forward P/E ratio stands at 24, with analysts projecting its earnings to grow at a compound annual rate of 37% over the next several years, making this valuation highly attractive and reflecting market confidence in its ongoing innovation and growth trajectory.
See More
Microsoft and Broadcom: Winners in AI Investment
- Microsoft Cloud Growth: Microsoft (MSFT) reported a 26% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue last quarter, indicating that AI services are becoming a key growth driver, which is expected to further enhance overall revenue growth.
- Data Center Investments: Microsoft is investing in data centers and AI chips, such as the Maia 200 custom AI accelerator, to meet the growing demand for AI cloud services, with Azure platform revenue up 39% year-over-year, reflecting strong market demand.
- Broadcom's Strong Performance: Broadcom (AVGO) posted a 39% year-over-year increase in adjusted net income last quarter, reaching $9.7 billion, with total revenue growing 28%, primarily driven by surging demand for AI accelerators, showcasing its industry leadership.
- Shareholder Return Program: Broadcom paid $2.8 billion in cash dividends in the fourth quarter and has consistently increased dividends over the past decade, with a current yield of 0.73%, reflecting its strong profitability and commitment to shareholders.
See More
Investor Confusion in AI Competition
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Following earnings calls from tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, investor confusion about future directions led to Amazon losing over $300 billion in market cap, reflecting strong skepticism regarding its $200 billion AI investment plan.
- Capital Expenditure Comparison: Google announced an increase in capital expenditures to $175 billion to $185 billion, exceeding the expected $115 billion to $120 billion, indicating a proactive approach in AI despite challenges from slowing ad revenues.
- Changing Competitive Landscape: With Alphabet's ongoing investments and successes in AI, YouTube's user base has grown to 750 million, and Waymo's self-driving business is outpacing Tesla, suggesting a strengthening competitive advantage that may attract more investor interest.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite OpenAI and Anthropic's strong performance in AI, Microsoft's Copilot sales have been disappointing, highlighting investor concerns about its future growth and reflecting differing levels of confidence across companies.
See More
Bill Gates' Philanthropic Investment Strategy
- Charitable Donation Scale: Bill Gates has donated the vast majority of his wealth to the Gates Foundation over the decades, planning to give away nearly all of his remaining wealth over the next 20 years, reflecting his strong commitment to philanthropy.
- Investment Concentration: Approximately 59% of the Gates Foundation's marketable equity portfolio is concentrated in three major stocks, with Berkshire Hathaway accounting for 28.5%, indicating a highly concentrated investment strategy favoring quality assets.
- Berkshire Hathaway Performance: As of the third quarter, the foundation holds 21.8 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, valued at about $11 billion, and despite market fluctuations, the foundation plans to continue holding these quality assets.
- WM and Canadian National Railway: The Gates Foundation also holds stakes in WM and Canadian National Railway, representing 17% and 13.3% of its assets respectively, both companies possess strong market positions and stable profitability in their respective industries, showcasing Gates' focus on long-term investments.
See More
