McCormick Lowers 2026 Profit Guidance, Shares Drop 6%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 22 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MKC?
Source: seekingalpha
McCormick's stock fell 3.09% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market gains, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.99% and the S&P 500 up 0.65%.
The company lowered its adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 to between $3.05 and $3.13, below the consensus estimate of $3.23, indicating significant pressure on profitability and reduced market confidence. This news comes as McCormick anticipates sales growth of 13% to 17% for 2026, which is below market expectations, reflecting challenges from global trade dynamics.
This downward revision in profit guidance has raised concerns among investors, leading to a notable decline in share price. The market's reaction underscores the importance of maintaining investor confidence, especially in light of the company's recent performance and future projections.
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Analyst Views on MKC
Wall Street analysts forecast MKC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MKC is 83.67 USD with a low forecast of 75.00 USD and a high forecast of 89.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 66.980
Low
75.00
Averages
83.67
High
89.00
Current: 66.980
Low
75.00
Averages
83.67
High
89.00
About MKC
McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments and flavors to the entire food and beverage industry, including retailers, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. It operates through two segments: consumer and flavor solutions. The consumer segment sells to retail channels, including grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce under the McCormick brand and a variety of brands around the world, including French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry’s, Zatarain’s, Simply Asia, Thai Kitchen, Ducros, Vahine, Cholula, Schwartz, Club House, Kamis, DaQiao, La Drogheria, Stubb's, OLD BAY, Gourmet Garden, and others. In its flavor solutions segment, it provides a range of products to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. The foodservice customers are supplied with branded, packaged products both directly by the Company and indirectly through distributors.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Valuation Analysis of McCormick Stock
- Stock Performance: McCormick's stock recently closed at $67.42, reflecting a 9.0% return over the past week, yet it has seen an 11.7% decline over the past year, indicating a strong short-term performance but a weak long-term trend that prompts investors to reassess its value.
- Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: The DCF model estimates McCormick's free cash flow at $705 million, projecting it to reach $1,029 million in 2026 and $1,141 million in 2028, suggesting an intrinsic value of approximately $121.78 per share, indicating a potential undervaluation of 44.6%.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Currently, McCormick trades at a P/E ratio of 22.9x, which is close to the food industry average of 23.1x but significantly lower than the peer group average of 40.5x, indicating that the market values its earnings reasonably, yet it trades above its fair ratio of 19.3x, suggesting some overvaluation risk.
- Investor Focus: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, investors should remain attentive to McCormick's long-term growth potential and the market's reassessment of its stable consumer brand, enabling more informed investment decisions.
See More
Worst Performing Consumer Staples Stocks in January 2026
- McCormick's Poor Performance: McCormick & Company (MKC) leads the list with an 11.31% decline in stock price over the past month, indicating market concerns about its growth prospects, which could lead to decreased investor confidence and long-term stock performance issues.
- Dollar Tree's Struggles: Following closely, Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw a 5.34% drop despite its strong buy rating of 4.61, suggesting that market apprehensions regarding its profitability may hinder any potential stock rebound.
- Other Underperformers: General Mills (GIS) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) experienced declines of 5.31% and 4.76%, respectively, highlighting the impact of weak consumer spending on these companies, which may lead to downward revisions in future sales and profit expectations.
- Overall Market Trends: The consumer staples sector is facing challenges, with The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) also showing declines, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards the industry amid broader economic uncertainties.
See More
McCormick Rated as Low-Risk Retirement Stock Despite Q4 Weakness
- Earnings Warning: McCormick's organic sales in Q4 fell short of expectations, primarily due to weaker performance in Americas Flavor Solutions, leading to a negative market reaction to its earnings report and impacting stock performance.
- Earnings Forecast Cut: BofA lowered McCormick's FY26 EPS estimate from $3.21 to $3.09, reflecting the pressure from a gross margin miss of approximately 150 basis points in Q4, indicating significant profitability challenges ahead for the company.
- Cost Pressures Intensify: McCormick expects an additional $50 million in costs in FY26 due to tariffs and rising commodity prices, with the CEO noting that about 50% of the tariffs remain in effect, exacerbating inflationary pressures on margins.
- Long-Term Outlook: Despite near-term pressures, Deutsche Bank analysts believe McCormick could benefit from steady demand and its acquisition of McCormick de Mexico, indicating potential resilience in the market.
See More
McCormick to Present at CAGNY Conference
- Conference Schedule: McCormick will present at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference on February 17, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET, highlighting its leadership in the global flavor market, which is expected to attract investor and industry analyst attention.
- Executive Attendance: Chairman and CEO Brendan Foley, along with CFO Marcos Gabriel, will represent McCormick, showcasing the company's strategy and future direction, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
- Live Webcast: The presentation will be webcast live via McCormick's website, allowing a global audience to stay updated on the company's latest developments, with a replay available post-event to further enhance transparency and investor engagement.
- Company Background: Founded in 1889, McCormick has approximately $7 billion in annual sales across 150 countries, leveraging a diverse product portfolio and market insights to meet consumer demand for flavor, driving sustainable growth.
See More
McCormick to Present at CAGNY Conference
- Conference Schedule: McCormick & Company will present at the CAGNY Conference on February 17, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET, featuring Brendan Foley, Chairman and CEO, alongside Marcos Gabriel, EVP and CFO, highlighting its leadership in the global flavor market.
- Live Webcast: The presentation will be streamed live on McCormick's official website, with a replay available post-event, ensuring a broader audience can access the company's latest updates and strategic direction.
- Company Background: Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland, McCormick boasts approximately $7 billion in annual sales across 150 countries, focusing on the production and distribution of spices, seasonings, and flavors to meet global food and beverage industry demands.
- Market Positioning: By leveraging synergies between its Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments, the company utilizes scale, insights, and technology to drive sustainable growth, further solidifying its competitive edge in the global flavor market.
See More
Consumer Spending Choices Impact Stability in Staples Sector
- Consumer Spending Trends: Consumers are becoming more cautious with their spending, only splurging when they feel it is worth it, a trend that is expected to continue into 2026, as reflected in the fourth-quarter results.
- Spice Market Changes: Spice companies are increasing bottle openings to encourage consumers to use more product, and despite high prices, consumers are becoming more careful in their usage to cope with rising living costs.
- Consumer Staples Performance: Although consumer staples stocks underperformed last year, they are still viewed as a stabilizing factor in investment portfolios, especially during a volatile mid-term election year.
- Market Expectations: A pullback of 15% to 19% in the market is anticipated in the first half of this year, prompting investors to maintain a certain allocation to consumer staples to navigate potential uncertainties.
See More
Valuation Analysis of McCormick Stock
- Stock Performance: McCormick's stock recently closed at $67.42, reflecting a 9.0% return over the past week, yet it has seen an 11.7% decline over the past year, indicating a strong short-term performance but a weak long-term trend that prompts investors to reassess its value.
- Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: The DCF model estimates McCormick's free cash flow at $705 million, projecting it to reach $1,029 million in 2026 and $1,141 million in 2028, suggesting an intrinsic value of approximately $121.78 per share, indicating a potential undervaluation of 44.6%.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Currently, McCormick trades at a P/E ratio of 22.9x, which is close to the food industry average of 23.1x but significantly lower than the peer group average of 40.5x, indicating that the market values its earnings reasonably, yet it trades above its fair ratio of 19.3x, suggesting some overvaluation risk.
- Investor Focus: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, investors should remain attentive to McCormick's long-term growth potential and the market's reassessment of its stable consumer brand, enabling more informed investment decisions.
See More
Worst Performing Consumer Staples Stocks in January 2026
- McCormick's Poor Performance: McCormick & Company (MKC) leads the list with an 11.31% decline in stock price over the past month, indicating market concerns about its growth prospects, which could lead to decreased investor confidence and long-term stock performance issues.
- Dollar Tree's Struggles: Following closely, Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw a 5.34% drop despite its strong buy rating of 4.61, suggesting that market apprehensions regarding its profitability may hinder any potential stock rebound.
- Other Underperformers: General Mills (GIS) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) experienced declines of 5.31% and 4.76%, respectively, highlighting the impact of weak consumer spending on these companies, which may lead to downward revisions in future sales and profit expectations.
- Overall Market Trends: The consumer staples sector is facing challenges, with The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) also showing declines, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards the industry amid broader economic uncertainties.
See More
McCormick Rated as Low-Risk Retirement Stock Despite Q4 Weakness
- Earnings Warning: McCormick's organic sales in Q4 fell short of expectations, primarily due to weaker performance in Americas Flavor Solutions, leading to a negative market reaction to its earnings report and impacting stock performance.
- Earnings Forecast Cut: BofA lowered McCormick's FY26 EPS estimate from $3.21 to $3.09, reflecting the pressure from a gross margin miss of approximately 150 basis points in Q4, indicating significant profitability challenges ahead for the company.
- Cost Pressures Intensify: McCormick expects an additional $50 million in costs in FY26 due to tariffs and rising commodity prices, with the CEO noting that about 50% of the tariffs remain in effect, exacerbating inflationary pressures on margins.
- Long-Term Outlook: Despite near-term pressures, Deutsche Bank analysts believe McCormick could benefit from steady demand and its acquisition of McCormick de Mexico, indicating potential resilience in the market.
See More
McCormick to Present at CAGNY Conference
- Conference Schedule: McCormick will present at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference on February 17, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET, highlighting its leadership in the global flavor market, which is expected to attract investor and industry analyst attention.
- Executive Attendance: Chairman and CEO Brendan Foley, along with CFO Marcos Gabriel, will represent McCormick, showcasing the company's strategy and future direction, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
- Live Webcast: The presentation will be webcast live via McCormick's website, allowing a global audience to stay updated on the company's latest developments, with a replay available post-event to further enhance transparency and investor engagement.
- Company Background: Founded in 1889, McCormick has approximately $7 billion in annual sales across 150 countries, leveraging a diverse product portfolio and market insights to meet consumer demand for flavor, driving sustainable growth.
See More
McCormick to Present at CAGNY Conference
- Conference Schedule: McCormick & Company will present at the CAGNY Conference on February 17, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET, featuring Brendan Foley, Chairman and CEO, alongside Marcos Gabriel, EVP and CFO, highlighting its leadership in the global flavor market.
- Live Webcast: The presentation will be streamed live on McCormick's official website, with a replay available post-event, ensuring a broader audience can access the company's latest updates and strategic direction.
- Company Background: Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland, McCormick boasts approximately $7 billion in annual sales across 150 countries, focusing on the production and distribution of spices, seasonings, and flavors to meet global food and beverage industry demands.
- Market Positioning: By leveraging synergies between its Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments, the company utilizes scale, insights, and technology to drive sustainable growth, further solidifying its competitive edge in the global flavor market.
See More
Consumer Spending Choices Impact Stability in Staples Sector
- Consumer Spending Trends: Consumers are becoming more cautious with their spending, only splurging when they feel it is worth it, a trend that is expected to continue into 2026, as reflected in the fourth-quarter results.
- Spice Market Changes: Spice companies are increasing bottle openings to encourage consumers to use more product, and despite high prices, consumers are becoming more careful in their usage to cope with rising living costs.
- Consumer Staples Performance: Although consumer staples stocks underperformed last year, they are still viewed as a stabilizing factor in investment portfolios, especially during a volatile mid-term election year.
- Market Expectations: A pullback of 15% to 19% in the market is anticipated in the first half of this year, prompting investors to maintain a certain allocation to consumer staples to navigate potential uncertainties.
See More
