Canadian National Railway Reports Strong Q4 Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CNI?
Source: seekingalpha
Canadian National Railway's stock fell 4.60% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market declines, with the Nasdaq-100 down 1.37% and the S&P 500 down 0.79%.
The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of C$2.08 for Q4, with revenue reaching C$4.46 billion, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth. This performance underscores the company's enhanced profitability amid stable transportation demand. Additionally, the operating ratio improved to 61.2%, indicating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency. The company also plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, reflecting confidence in future development.
Despite the stock's decline, the strong earnings report may bolster investor confidence in the long term, as the company continues to demonstrate operational improvements and a commitment to shareholder returns.
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Analyst Views on CNI
Wall Street analysts forecast CNI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNI is 113.56 USD with a low forecast of 105.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.77 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 100.000
Low
105.00
Averages
113.56
High
136.77
Current: 100.000
Low
105.00
Averages
113.56
High
136.77
About CNI
Canadian National Railway Company is a transportation and logistics company. The Company's services include rail, intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. The Company’s rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage and others. Its intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with about 23 strategically placed intermodal terminals. Its intermodal services include temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics park, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others. Its trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services. Its supply chain services offer comprehensive services across a range of industries and product types. The Company transports more than 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America every year.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Record Grain Movement: In January 2026, CN shipped over 2.72 million metric tonnes of grain, marking its second-best performance for the month, just behind the all-time record of 2.85 million metric tonnes set in 2020, showcasing the company's robust capabilities in grain logistics.
- Weather Resilience: Despite facing extreme cold weather across its network, CN successfully adjusted its operations to safely and efficiently transport Canadian grain to market, supporting farmers and supply chain partners, which highlights its operational resilience.
- Winter Operations Plan: CN continues to implement its winter operations plan, employing proactive solutions to ensure transportation efficiency, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the North American transportation sector.
- Economic Impact: As a major transportation provider in North America, CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, connecting Canada's eastern and western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, contributing to sustainable trade and community prosperity.
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CN Announces Filing of 2025 Annual Financial Statements
- Financial Report Release: CN has filed its 2025 Annual Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, enhancing transparency and compliance, which boosts investor confidence.
- Investor Accessibility: Shareholders can request printed copies of CN's 2025 financial statements free of charge, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder engagement and improving investor relations through enhanced information disclosure.
- Transportation Capacity Overview: CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, underscoring its critical role in the North American economy and ensuring supply chain stability and efficiency, which supports sustainable regional development.
- Network Coverage Advantage: With nearly 20,000 miles of rail network connecting Canada's East and West coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, CN strengthens its competitive position in the North American market, facilitating regional trade prosperity.
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- Price Target Adjustment: RBC has lowered its price target for Canadian National Railway by $2.00 to $151, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Anticipation: This price adjustment could lead to short-term volatility in CNR.TO's stock, prompting investors to monitor upcoming earnings reports to assess changes in the company's fundamentals.
- Industry Impact: As a major North American railway operator, fluctuations in Canadian National Railway's stock price may have a ripple effect on the entire transportation sector, influencing investment decisions of related companies.
- Analyst Sentiment: RBC's adjustment reflects a conservative view on the railway industry's prospects, potentially signaling concerns over economic slowdown and reduced transportation demand.
See More
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- Operational Efficiency Improvement: The operating ratio improved to 61.2%, a 1.4-point increase from last year, while the adjusted operating ratio stood at 60.1%, up 2.5 points, indicating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Volume Growth: Gross ton miles (GTMs) increased by 5% to 118,923 million, and revenue ton miles (RTMs) rose by 4% to 61,707 million, demonstrating the company's strong performance in transportation capacity and market demand, further solidifying its market position.
- Future Investment Plans: The company plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, and while volume growth is expected to be flat, adjusted diluted EPS growth is anticipated to slightly exceed volume growth, reflecting confidence in future development.
See More
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- Yield Metrics: The forward yield of 2.69% provides investors with a relatively stable income source, further solidifying the company's attractiveness in the railway sector, especially in the current economic climate.
- Share Buyback Plan: The Board has approved a new normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 24 million common shares over the next 12 months, representing 3.9% of the shares outstanding as of January 22, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and optimizing capital structure.
- Buyback Timeline: This buyback will occur between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027, through a combination of discretionary transactions and automatic repurchase plans at prevailing market prices, demonstrating the company's confidence in future stock performance.
See More
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- Share Buyback Plan: The newly approved normal course issuer bid allows CN to repurchase up to 24 million common shares over the next 12 months, representing 3.9% of the outstanding shares, which is expected to further enhance earnings per share and bolster market confidence.
- Market Operations: The buyback will occur between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027, utilizing automatic repurchase plans at market prices, ensuring compliance with various exchange regulations to adapt flexibly to market conditions.
- Previous Buyback Success: As of January 22, 2026, CN had repurchased 15,250,222 shares at an average price of C$134.44 per share, returning over C$2.05 billion to shareholders, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder value.
See More
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- Record Grain Movement: In January 2026, CN shipped over 2.72 million metric tonnes of grain, marking its second-best performance for the month, just behind the all-time record of 2.85 million metric tonnes set in 2020, showcasing the company's robust capabilities in grain logistics.
- Weather Resilience: Despite facing extreme cold weather across its network, CN successfully adjusted its operations to safely and efficiently transport Canadian grain to market, supporting farmers and supply chain partners, which highlights its operational resilience.
- Winter Operations Plan: CN continues to implement its winter operations plan, employing proactive solutions to ensure transportation efficiency, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the North American transportation sector.
- Economic Impact: As a major transportation provider in North America, CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, connecting Canada's eastern and western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, contributing to sustainable trade and community prosperity.
See More
CN Announces Filing of 2025 Annual Financial Statements
- Financial Report Release: CN has filed its 2025 Annual Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, enhancing transparency and compliance, which boosts investor confidence.
- Investor Accessibility: Shareholders can request printed copies of CN's 2025 financial statements free of charge, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder engagement and improving investor relations through enhanced information disclosure.
- Transportation Capacity Overview: CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, underscoring its critical role in the North American economy and ensuring supply chain stability and efficiency, which supports sustainable regional development.
- Network Coverage Advantage: With nearly 20,000 miles of rail network connecting Canada's East and West coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, CN strengthens its competitive position in the North American market, facilitating regional trade prosperity.
See More
RBC Lowers Price Target for Canadian National Railway
- Price Target Adjustment: RBC has lowered its price target for Canadian National Railway by $2.00 to $151, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Anticipation: This price adjustment could lead to short-term volatility in CNR.TO's stock, prompting investors to monitor upcoming earnings reports to assess changes in the company's fundamentals.
- Industry Impact: As a major North American railway operator, fluctuations in Canadian National Railway's stock price may have a ripple effect on the entire transportation sector, influencing investment decisions of related companies.
- Analyst Sentiment: RBC's adjustment reflects a conservative view on the railway industry's prospects, potentially signaling concerns over economic slowdown and reduced transportation demand.
See More
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- Earnings Performance: Canadian National Railway reported a non-GAAP EPS of C$2.08 for Q4, with revenue reaching C$4.46 billion, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth that underscores the company's enhanced profitability amid stable transportation demand.
- Operational Efficiency Improvement: The operating ratio improved to 61.2%, a 1.4-point increase from last year, while the adjusted operating ratio stood at 60.1%, up 2.5 points, indicating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Volume Growth: Gross ton miles (GTMs) increased by 5% to 118,923 million, and revenue ton miles (RTMs) rose by 4% to 61,707 million, demonstrating the company's strong performance in transportation capacity and market demand, further solidifying its market position.
- Future Investment Plans: The company plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, and while volume growth is expected to be flat, adjusted diluted EPS growth is anticipated to slightly exceed volume growth, reflecting confidence in future development.
See More
Canadian National Railway Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Dividend Increase: Canadian National Railway has raised its quarterly dividend from CAD 0.887 to CAD 0.915 per share, marking a 3.1% increase that reflects the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns, which is expected to bolster investor confidence.
- Yield Metrics: The forward yield of 2.69% provides investors with a relatively stable income source, further solidifying the company's attractiveness in the railway sector, especially in the current economic climate.
- Share Buyback Plan: The Board has approved a new normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 24 million common shares over the next 12 months, representing 3.9% of the shares outstanding as of January 22, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and optimizing capital structure.
- Buyback Timeline: This buyback will occur between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027, through a combination of discretionary transactions and automatic repurchase plans at prevailing market prices, demonstrating the company's confidence in future stock performance.
See More
CN Announces 3% Dividend Increase and Share Buyback Plan for 2026
- Dividend Increase: CN's Board of Directors has approved a 3% increase in the 2026 dividend, setting it at C$0.9150 per share, which reflects the company's strong cash flow and disciplined capital management strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and supporting long-term performance.
- Share Buyback Plan: The newly approved normal course issuer bid allows CN to repurchase up to 24 million common shares over the next 12 months, representing 3.9% of the outstanding shares, which is expected to further enhance earnings per share and bolster market confidence.
- Market Operations: The buyback will occur between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027, utilizing automatic repurchase plans at market prices, ensuring compliance with various exchange regulations to adapt flexibly to market conditions.
- Previous Buyback Success: As of January 22, 2026, CN had repurchased 15,250,222 shares at an average price of C$134.44 per share, returning over C$2.05 billion to shareholders, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder value.
See More
