BG.N Hits 20-Day Low Amid Market Volatility
Shares of BG.N declined sharply today, hitting a 20-day low as investor sentiment turned bearish. The stock's recent performance reflects a significant downturn, with prices falling below key support levels, indicating increased selling pressure. Analysts suggest that this bearish momentum may be attributed to broader market volatility and concerns over supply chain disruptions affecting the company's operations. Additionally, recent earnings reports have raised questions about future profitability, further contributing to the stock's decline. Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming announcements for potential catalysts that could reverse this trend.
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- Integration Benefits: CEO Gregory Heckman highlighted that the integration with Viterra has already realized $190 million in synergies ahead of schedule, optimizing origination, merchandising, and logistics, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in a complex market environment.
- Financial Performance Review: In Q4 2025, reported earnings per share were $0.49, with adjusted EPS at $1.99, reflecting a decline from last year; however, all business segments showed year-over-year growth, demonstrating the company's resilience in the market.
- Outlook Projection: The company projects adjusted EPS for 2026 to be in the range of $7.50 to $8.00, based on the current market environment and forward curves, indicating confidence in future profitability.
- External Risk Factors: Management noted geopolitical tensions and uncertainties around biofuel policy could impact future performance; nevertheless, the company remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing a commitment to disciplined capital allocation strategies.
- Quarterly Highlights: Bunge reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.81, with quarterly sales reaching $23.762 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $22.684 billion, indicating strong operational execution.
- Segment Performance: The Soybean Processing and Refining segment achieved quarterly net sales of $11.045 billion, significantly up from $8.374 billion a year ago, primarily driven by improved results in South America, particularly in Argentina and Brazil.
- Cash Flow Status: Despite a gross profit of $1.011 billion for the quarter, down from $1.081 billion a year prior, operating cash flow was $844 million, a sharp decline from $1.9 billion last year, mainly due to lower net income and changes in working capital.
- Future Outlook: Bunge anticipates adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $7.50 and $8.00, below the analyst estimate of $8.71, although the company emphasizes that its expanded capabilities and diversified value chains will help it adapt to market fluctuations.
- Earnings Beat: Bunge reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.99, surpassing expectations by $0.17, indicating robust profitability amid current economic conditions.
- Revenue Surge: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $23.76 billion, a 75.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding forecasts by $1.45 billion, showcasing strong performance and demand in the agricultural market.
- Cautious 2026 Outlook: Bunge anticipates adjusted EPS for 2026 to range between $7.50 and $8.00, below the consensus estimate of $8.94, reflecting uncertainty in future market conditions.
- Financial Guidance: The company expects an effective tax rate of 23% to 27%, net interest expense of $575 to $625 million, capital expenditures of $1.5 to $1.7 billion, and depreciation and amortization of approximately $975 million for 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future investments.
Market Trends: The software market is experiencing a significant selloff, indicating a downturn in investor confidence.
Company Focus: Anthropic, a key player in the AI sector, is highlighted amidst the broader market challenges.
- Earnings Announcement: Bunge is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 4th before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.82, reflecting a 14.6% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $22.31 billion, a 64.8% increase year-over-year.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Bunge has exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in its financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and five downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced two upward and two downward revisions, highlighting market divergence regarding the company's future outlook.
- Market Reaction: Morgan Stanley upgraded Bunge's rating, suggesting increased market confidence in company-specific drivers, while also noting that the impact of Viterra has been priced in by the market.
- Bunge Shares Decline: Bunge's shares fell by 2.3% following a disappointing earnings report.
- ADM's Profit Forecast: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its profit forecast for 2026, contributing to market concerns.









