Ark Invest Increases Stake in Bullish Shares
Bullish shares fell 5.79% and hit a 52-week low amid broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 down 1.12% and the S&P 500 down 0.71%.
Ark Invest recently increased its stake in Bullish, acquiring approximately $2.98 million worth of shares through its ETFs, reflecting confidence in the digital asset platform. Despite a decline in digital asset sales, Bullish reported impressive third-quarter earnings of $76.5 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $71.2 million, indicating strong operational momentum. This investment showcases Ark's ongoing commitment to emerging technologies and digital assets.
The increase in Ark's holdings may provide some support for Bullish's stock in the long term, especially as retail sentiment shifts positively. However, the current price drop highlights the challenges the company faces amid broader market conditions.
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- Price Target Adjustment: JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington lowered Bullish's (NYSE:BLSH) price target from $45 to $42 while maintaining a Neutral rating, reflecting tempered near-term expectations but indicating a balanced valuation relative to operational trends.
- Institutional Investment Dynamics: Cathie Wood's Ark Invest added approximately $6 million worth of Bullish shares, signaling confidence in the company's long-term positioning within the digital asset ecosystem, highlighting Bullish's role as core infrastructure that could benefit from stabilizing market activity.
- Compliance Advantage: Founded in 2020 and headquartered in George Town, Cayman Islands, Bullish operates a regulated cryptocurrency exchange with licenses across major jurisdictions including Germany, Hong Kong, Gibraltar, and New York State, showcasing its differentiated competitive edge in the evolving digital asset market.
- Market Outlook Analysis: While Bullish is viewed as a potential investment, analysts believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk, suggesting that Bullish's investment appeal may be limited in the current market environment.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Bullish achieved record SS&O revenue of $54.6 million in Q4 2025, representing a 284% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA reached $44.5 million, reflecting a 55% quarter-over-quarter growth, indicating strong momentum in the institutional client market.
- Market Expansion Strategy: CEO Thomas Farley emphasized that Bullish will continue to focus on expanding its influence in the regulated derivatives market, with a target of SS&O revenue between $220 million and $250 million for 2026, aiming for approximately 50% year-over-year growth.
- Record Customer Activity: Bullish reported all-time highs in customer activity during Q4, including monthly active customers, total customer funds on the platform, and open interest for futures and options, with the options platform exceeding $2 billion in open interest by year-end, becoming the global #2 in Bitcoin options.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Despite facing macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties, CFO David Bonanno stated that Bullish's guidance for 2026 reflects optimistic expectations for continued strong business momentum and increasing customer demand.
- Wider Loss Reported: Bullish's Q4 GAAP EPS of -$3.73 significantly missed the analyst estimate of -$2.04, marking a sharp decline from a profit of $0.14 in Q3, indicating increasing financial pressure on the company.
- Lower Revenue Guidance: The company projects 2026 subscription and services revenue midpoint at $225M, below the Wall Street consensus of $229M, reflecting market concerns about future growth and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Declining Trading Volume: Total trading volume for Q4 was $222B, a notable increase from $142B in the previous quarter, yet January's volume dropped to $22.5B from $25.9B in December, suggesting weakened market activity that could affect future revenues.
- Adjusted Net Income Growth: Despite the losses, Bullish reported an adjusted net income of $28.9M for Q4, exceeding the $24.3M consensus and significantly up from $14.1M in the prior quarter, demonstrating improved profitability in certain areas.
- Earnings Highlights: Bullish's Q4 earnings report reveals a GAAP EPS of -$3.73, missing expectations by $1.69, while revenue reached $92.5 million, reflecting a robust 67.6% year-over-year growth and exceeding estimates by $5.24 million, indicating strong market performance.
- Digital Asset Sales: In Q4 2025, digital asset sales amounted to $64.3 billion, although the net income was -$563.6 million, highlighting the dual challenges and opportunities Bullish faces in the digital asset sector.
- Options Trading Volume: Bullish surpassed $9 billion in options trading volume with an open interest of $4 billion, demonstrating significant investor interest and activity on the Bullish platform, which may lay the groundwork for future growth.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: Management provided guidance for 2026, projecting subscription, services, and other revenue (non-IFRS) between $220 million and $250 million, with adjusted operating expenses (non-IFRS) estimated at $210 million to $230 million, offering investors a clear outlook for the future.
- Strong Financial Performance: Bullish achieved adjusted revenue of $92.5 million in Q4 2025, a 67.5% increase compared to Q4 2024, demonstrating robust performance and expanding operational leverage in the digital asset market.
- Reduced Net Loss: The net loss of $563.6 million, while significant, shows a marked improvement from a net income of $158.5 million in 2024, indicating progress in cost control and business optimization efforts.
- Positive Future Outlook: Management is optimistic about 2026, expecting continued revenue growth, particularly in digital asset trading and information services, which will further solidify Bullish's leadership position in the industry.
- Enhanced Market Infrastructure: Bullish strengthens its competitive edge in the global digital asset market through its exchange and subsidiaries like CoinDesk, providing comprehensive market infrastructure and information services, especially in the rapidly growing European and Asia-Pacific regions.
- Trading Volume Overview: In January 2026, Bullish reported a Bitcoin trading volume of $3.46 billion, reflecting a decline from December but still indicating robust market activity and sustained interest from institutional investors in digital assets.
- Average Trading Spread: The average trading spread for Bitcoin was 2.14 basis points, demonstrating stable trading costs that could attract more traders and enhance the platform's competitiveness in the digital asset market.
- Volatility Analysis: The monthly average volatility for Bitcoin stood at 48%, showing a decrease from previous months, yet indicating ongoing market uncertainty that may influence investor trading decisions.
- Platform Service Expansion: As the parent company of CoinDesk, Bullish continues to strengthen its leadership position in the digital asset space by providing market infrastructure and information services, which is expected to attract more institutional clients.








