Alcoa Stock Declines Amid Downgrade and Market Weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 18 2024
0mins
Should l Buy AA?
Alcoa Corp (AA) saw its stock price drop by 5.01% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting broader market weakness with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.59% and the S&P 500 down 0.29%.
The decline comes after Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa from Overweight to Equal Weight, citing a more balanced risk-reward following a nearly 50% rise in the stock since December. Despite a strong Q4 earnings report where Alcoa exceeded expectations with a net income of $226 million, concerns about near-term pressures on earnings and cash flow have led to a negative market reaction. Analysts remain optimistic about Alcoa's long-term prospects, but the immediate outlook appears challenging amid market conditions.
Investors are weighing the potential for a rebound against the backdrop of a tightening aluminum market and ongoing productivity initiatives. While the downgrade may have contributed to the stock's decline, the overall market sentiment and sector dynamics are also influencing investor decisions.
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Analyst Views on AA
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AA is 46.00 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 58.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 56.380
Low
33.00
Averages
46.00
High
58.00
Current: 56.380
Low
33.00
Averages
46.00
High
58.00
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, which generally include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company’s aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company’s energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of 26 operating locations across nine countries on six continents.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dollar Weakness Impact: Trump's comments expressing indifference towards the dollar's decline intensified bearish sentiment in the market, leading to price increases in aluminum and other base metals, with copper up 1.5% and zinc up 1.9%.
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- Slight Revenue Decline: Q4 revenues slipped 1% year-over-year to $3.45 billion, yet remained slightly above analyst consensus, driven by a 3% increase in alumina segment revenues and a 21% rise in aluminum business, reflecting resilient market demand.
- Future Production Outlook: Alcoa anticipates total alumina production of 9.7 to 9.9 million metric tons in FY 2026, an increase from 2025, indicating positive progress in productivity improvements that may further strengthen market competitiveness.
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See More
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See More
