Advance Auto Parts sees stock rise amid restructuring efforts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 08 2024
0mins
Should l Buy AAP?
Source: TipRanks
Shares of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) rose by 7.99%, reaching a 20-day high, as the company implements restructuring strategies aimed at improving profitability and market competitiveness.
The recent restructuring under CEO Shane O'Kelly, which includes closing over 700 locations and plans to open 100 new stores by 2027, has shown early signs of success, attracting investor interest. Despite facing competitive pressures, the company reported a 3% comparable sales growth in Q3 and raised its full-year earnings guidance, indicating potential for its aftermarket auto parts business.
The market's positive response to these developments suggests that investors are optimistic about the company's turnaround efforts, especially in a sector that typically performs well in weak economic conditions.
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Analyst Views on AAP
Wall Street analysts forecast AAP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAP is 55.23 USD with a low forecast of 40.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
14 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 52.930
Low
40.00
Averages
55.23
High
65.00
Current: 52.930
Low
40.00
Averages
55.23
High
65.00
About AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, as well as independently owned operators. The Company's stores and branches offer a range selection of brand names, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and owned brand automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy-duty trucks. The Company operates approximately 4,788 stores primarily within the United States (U.S.), with additional locations in Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Company also serves approximately 934 independently owned Carquest branded stores across these locations in addition to Mexico and various Caribbean islands. Its stores operate primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade names.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
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- Economic Data Release: The delayed January jobs report will be released on Wednesday, with economists forecasting the addition of 70,000 jobs in the U.S., providing the market with the latest dynamics on the labor market.
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- Key Companies Listed: The list includes Advance Auto Parts (AAP), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Peabody Energy (BTU), The Chemours Company (CC), and Dana (DAN), all of which exhibit poor dividend growth performance, potentially undermining investor confidence.
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- Investment Risk Advisory: Companies rated D+ or below are considered a Sell, prompting investors to carefully assess the risks associated with these low-rated stocks, particularly in the context of economic volatility.
See More
Advance Auto Parts Restructuring Shows Promise
- Stock Price Surge: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) shares spiked 5.2% this morning, reflecting market recognition of its deep value opportunity, with a year-to-date increase of over 28%, indicating investor confidence in the company's restructuring plan.
- Comprehensive Restructuring: CEO Shane O'Kelly's restructuring plan is the most extensive yet, having closed over 700 locations and opened new stores in areas where Advance Auto holds a leadership position, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and profit margins to strengthen market competitiveness.
- Loyalty Program Launch: The company has introduced a loyalty program for DIY customers, designed to boost customer loyalty and optimize inventory management for same-day delivery, addressing a long-standing challenge faced by auto parts retailers.
- Cautious Market Outlook: While 3M has a pessimistic view on the auto aftermarket outlook for 2026, if O'Kelly's strategic restructuring succeeds, it could provide significant upside potential for AAP, attracting the attention of value investors.
See More
Advance Auto Parts Stock Rises 5.2% Amid Value Opportunity
- Strong Stock Performance: Advance Auto Parts stock surged 5.2% today, and as of 11 a.m., it has risen over 28% year-to-date, indicating market recognition of its deep value opportunity and reflecting investor optimism about the company's future performance.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite a bleak market outlook, with 3M describing a weak auto aftermarket entering 2026, Advance Auto Parts' EBITDA margin is significantly lower than peers AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, resulting in a notably low price-to-sales ratio compared to competitors, highlighting potential for profitability improvement.
- Strategic Restructuring Plans: CEO Shane O'Kelly's strategic restructuring involves closing over 700 locations and opening new stores in areas where Advance Auto has a strong leadership position, while also launching larger market hub stores to tackle inventory management challenges and enhance customer satisfaction.
- Customer Loyalty Program: The company has introduced a loyalty program aimed at rewarding its DIY customers, which seeks to enhance customer retention through incentives; although O'Kelly's success is not guaranteed, his restructuring efforts are viewed as the most fundamental shift the company has undertaken, attracting increasing interest from value investors.
See More
Pursue Wealth Partners Fully Exits Advance Auto Parts Stake
- Stake Change: Pursue Wealth Partners LLC reported on January 26 that it fully sold its 65,664 shares of Advance Auto Parts, valued at approximately $4 million, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Asset Management Impact: This position accounted for 2.2% of the fund's $182 million in assets under management at the end of Q3, and the complete exit may affect the diversification of its investment portfolio.
- Performance Comparison: While Advance Auto Parts achieved a 3% increase in same-store sales in the latest quarter, its stock price has declined by 1.8% over the past year, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's total return of 15.4%, reflecting market concerns about its prospects.
- Competitive Pressure: The company is executing a turnaround plan by closing underperforming stores and opening new ones, but in a highly competitive market, investors should monitor sustained same-store sales growth before deciding to invest further in the company.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
Next Week's Market Focus: Super Bowl and Earnings Reports
- Super Bowl Event: This Sunday, the Patriots will face the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, expected to attract a large audience and boost related advertising revenues, further solidifying the significance of sporting events in the market.
- Earnings Season Arrives: Companies like Coinbase, Ford, McDonald's, and Moderna will report earnings next week, with analysts focusing on McDonald's same-store sales, which are expected to rise due to promotional activities, reflecting consumer demand for value products.
- Economic Data Release: The delayed January jobs report will be released on Wednesday, with economists forecasting the addition of 70,000 jobs in the U.S., providing the market with the latest dynamics on the labor market.
- Inflation Indicator Focus: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Friday, with the market closely monitoring this key indicator's impact on future economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy, potentially influencing interest rate decisions.
See More
List of Mid-Cap Stocks with Lowest Dividend Growth Grades
- Low Dividend Growth Ratings: Amid unpredictable market conditions, several mid-cap stocks have received an F grade for dividend growth, spanning sectors such as automotive retail, apparel retail, and coal, indicating a lack of commitment to shareholder returns.
- Key Companies Listed: The list includes Advance Auto Parts (AAP), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Peabody Energy (BTU), The Chemours Company (CC), and Dana (DAN), all of which exhibit poor dividend growth performance, potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Rating Standards Explained: Seeking Alpha's comprehensive dividend scoring system rates companies from A+ to F, with an F indicating a poor track record in increasing dividend payments, raising concerns about future performance among investors.
- Investment Risk Advisory: Companies rated D+ or below are considered a Sell, prompting investors to carefully assess the risks associated with these low-rated stocks, particularly in the context of economic volatility.
See More
Advance Auto Parts Restructuring Shows Promise
- Stock Price Surge: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) shares spiked 5.2% this morning, reflecting market recognition of its deep value opportunity, with a year-to-date increase of over 28%, indicating investor confidence in the company's restructuring plan.
- Comprehensive Restructuring: CEO Shane O'Kelly's restructuring plan is the most extensive yet, having closed over 700 locations and opened new stores in areas where Advance Auto holds a leadership position, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and profit margins to strengthen market competitiveness.
- Loyalty Program Launch: The company has introduced a loyalty program for DIY customers, designed to boost customer loyalty and optimize inventory management for same-day delivery, addressing a long-standing challenge faced by auto parts retailers.
- Cautious Market Outlook: While 3M has a pessimistic view on the auto aftermarket outlook for 2026, if O'Kelly's strategic restructuring succeeds, it could provide significant upside potential for AAP, attracting the attention of value investors.
See More
Advance Auto Parts Stock Rises 5.2% Amid Value Opportunity
- Strong Stock Performance: Advance Auto Parts stock surged 5.2% today, and as of 11 a.m., it has risen over 28% year-to-date, indicating market recognition of its deep value opportunity and reflecting investor optimism about the company's future performance.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite a bleak market outlook, with 3M describing a weak auto aftermarket entering 2026, Advance Auto Parts' EBITDA margin is significantly lower than peers AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, resulting in a notably low price-to-sales ratio compared to competitors, highlighting potential for profitability improvement.
- Strategic Restructuring Plans: CEO Shane O'Kelly's strategic restructuring involves closing over 700 locations and opening new stores in areas where Advance Auto has a strong leadership position, while also launching larger market hub stores to tackle inventory management challenges and enhance customer satisfaction.
- Customer Loyalty Program: The company has introduced a loyalty program aimed at rewarding its DIY customers, which seeks to enhance customer retention through incentives; although O'Kelly's success is not guaranteed, his restructuring efforts are viewed as the most fundamental shift the company has undertaken, attracting increasing interest from value investors.
See More
Pursue Wealth Partners Fully Exits Advance Auto Parts Stake
- Stake Change: Pursue Wealth Partners LLC reported on January 26 that it fully sold its 65,664 shares of Advance Auto Parts, valued at approximately $4 million, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Asset Management Impact: This position accounted for 2.2% of the fund's $182 million in assets under management at the end of Q3, and the complete exit may affect the diversification of its investment portfolio.
- Performance Comparison: While Advance Auto Parts achieved a 3% increase in same-store sales in the latest quarter, its stock price has declined by 1.8% over the past year, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's total return of 15.4%, reflecting market concerns about its prospects.
- Competitive Pressure: The company is executing a turnaround plan by closing underperforming stores and opening new ones, but in a highly competitive market, investors should monitor sustained same-store sales growth before deciding to invest further in the company.
See More
