What Effect Do Recent Renewable Investments Have on HF Sinclair's 50.6% Stock Price Surge?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 29 2025
0mins
Should l Buy DINO?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Current Stock Performance: HF Sinclair's stock has increased by 50.6% year-to-date and 35.8% over the past year, prompting investors to reassess its future potential amid strategic investments in renewable energy.
Valuation Analysis: The company scores 1 out of 6 on undervalued metrics, indicating it may be overvalued by 37.4% based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, which estimates its intrinsic value at $38.50 per share.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio: HF Sinclair's current PE ratio of 24.9x is above the industry average of 13.4x, suggesting it is overvalued compared to broader industry metrics, although it is lower than some close competitors.
Narratives for Investment Insight: The concept of "Narratives" allows investors to combine personal perspectives with financial data to assess fair value, leading to varied estimates of HF Sinclair's worth, ranging from $42.00 to $98.48 based on different growth expectations.
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Analyst Views on DINO
Wall Street analysts forecast DINO stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.390
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
Current: 57.390
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
About DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent energy company that produces and markets light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel and other specialty products. Its segments include Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The Refining segment includes the operations of its El Dorado, Tulsa, Puget Sound, Navajo, Woods Cross, Parco and Casper Refineries and Asphalt. The Renewables segment includes the operations of the Artesia, Cheyenne and Sinclair RDUs and the Artesia PTU. The Marketing segment includes branded fuel sales. The Lubricants & Specialties segment includes the operations of its Petro-Canada Lubricants, Red Giant Oil and Sonneborn businesses in addition to specialty lubricant products produced at its Tulsa West refinery. The Midstream segment includes petroleum product and crude pipelines, terminal, tankage and loading rack facilities, and refinery processing units that primarily support its refining operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Consumer Spending Data Focus: This week's highlight will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which will provide insights into consumer spending in December and inflation trends, especially following last week's unexpected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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- Value Decline: The firm's quarter-end position in HF Sinclair decreased by $8.37 million, reflecting both the impact of share sales and stock price fluctuations, showcasing a cautious approach towards energy stocks.
- Portfolio Composition: HF Sinclair now represents only 0.85% of DDD Partners' reportable assets, contrasting sharply with its larger investments in mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, highlighting a focus on technology.
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- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: The analyst cut HF Sinclair's Q4 2025 EPS estimate from $0.96 to $0.44, while also lowering EBITDA forecasts from $473 million to $358 million, primarily due to weaker-than-expected West Coast performance.
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- Volatility Analysis: With a calculated annualized volatility of 38% based on the last 250 trading days' closing prices, investors are advised to carefully assess the risk-reward balance under current market conditions.
- Options Trading Dynamics: On Wednesday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 677,356 contracts, while call volume hit 1.41 million, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.48, indicating a preference for call options among investors, which may signal optimism towards HF Sinclair.
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- Increased Market Volatility: Last week, stocks in software, real estate, financial services, and logistics faced selling pressure due to concerns over AI-related disruptions, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.2% and a weekly loss of 2.1%, indicating market sensitivity to AI impacts.
- Consumer Spending Data Focus: This week's highlight will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which will provide insights into consumer spending in December and inflation trends, especially following last week's unexpected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Corporate Earnings in Spotlight: Walmart (WMT) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, marking the first report under new CEO John Furner, making it a key indicator of consumer spending that the market is eagerly anticipating.
- Ongoing AI Impact: As AI tools' potential effects intensify across various sectors, software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant declines, reflecting the market's heightened vigilance regarding AI disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of future industry developments.
See More
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- Shift in Investment Focus: Wall Street is increasingly concerned that artificial intelligence may threaten white-collar jobs, leading to a renewed interest in hard-hat and "real economy" stocks.
- Market Trends: The fear of AI's impact on employment is influencing investment strategies, making traditional industries more appealing to investors.
See More
DDD Partners Reduces Stake in HF Sinclair by $6.45 Million in Q4
- Stake Reduction: DDD Partners sold 125,198 shares of HF Sinclair in Q4, amounting to an estimated $6.45 million transaction, indicating a strategic adjustment despite HF Sinclair's 44.8% price increase over the past year.
- Value Decline: The firm's quarter-end position in HF Sinclair decreased by $8.37 million, reflecting both the impact of share sales and stock price fluctuations, showcasing a cautious approach towards energy stocks.
- Portfolio Composition: HF Sinclair now represents only 0.85% of DDD Partners' reportable assets, contrasting sharply with its larger investments in mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, highlighting a focus on technology.
- Future Outlook: HF Sinclair reported a net income of $403 million in its latest earnings release, demonstrating strong cash generation; while the stake reduction does not indicate a fundamental breakdown, timely rebalancing is crucial amid cyclical fluctuations in the energy market.
See More
HF Sinclair (DINO) Named Among Best Energy Stocks for Dividends in 2026, Price Target Cut to $67
- Price Target Adjustment: Piper Sandler reduced HF Sinclair's price target from $68 to $67, yet this still indicates over a 39% upside potential, reflecting market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: The analyst cut HF Sinclair's Q4 2025 EPS estimate from $0.96 to $0.44, while also lowering EBITDA forecasts from $473 million to $358 million, primarily due to weaker-than-expected West Coast performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: The decline in refining capture rates and throughput on the West Coast is the main reason for the earnings forecast downgrade; however, Piper Sandler views these issues as 'non-recurring' and expects no long-term impact on the company's performance.
- Competitive Analysis: Despite the challenges faced by HF Sinclair, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing it still holds strong investment potential among energy stocks, especially when compared to other AI stocks.
See More
Burry Bets on Valero Energy Amid Venezuelan Oil Revival
- Optimistic Investment Outlook: Burry has held Valero Energy since 2020 and believes that as the U.S. deepens its role in reviving Venezuela's oil industry, the stock's attractiveness is increasing, which is expected to enhance profit margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel products.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Burry's comments, Valero's shares jumped about 10% on Monday, reflecting strong market confidence in its future earnings potential, especially against the backdrop of a possible recovery in Venezuelan oil supply.
- Increased Infrastructure Demand: Venezuela's oil infrastructure has severely deteriorated due to decades of underinvestment, and Burry notes that if large-scale rehabilitation begins, it will create potential demand for U.S. oilfield services companies, further boosting Valero's market position.
- Broad Industry Prospects: Burry also mentioned his holdings in Halliburton and sees potential upside for Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, believing these companies will be involved in rebuilding aging pipelines and refineries, indicating a strong demand for U.S. contractors.
See More
HF Sinclair Corp Projects 4.3% Annualized Dividend Yield Amid Volatility
- Dividend Expectations: HF Sinclair Corp's recent dividend history indicates a projected annualized yield of 4.3%, closely tied to the company's profitability fluctuations, reflecting its stability in an uncertain market environment.
- Volatility Analysis: With a calculated annualized volatility of 38% based on the last 250 trading days' closing prices, investors are advised to carefully assess the risk-reward balance under current market conditions.
- Options Trading Dynamics: On Wednesday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 677,356 contracts, while call volume hit 1.41 million, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.48, indicating a preference for call options among investors, which may signal optimism towards HF Sinclair.
- Market Trends: HF Sinclair's current stock price stands at $46.47, and with a strike price of $52.50 for its call options, investors need to consider whether selling covered calls is worthwhile amid potential future market volatility.
See More
