Vail Resorts (MTN) Warns EBITDA May Fall Below $842M Due to Warm Weather
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MTN?
Source: seekingalpha
- Visitor Decline: As of January 4, Vail Resorts reported a 20% drop in skier visits compared to last year, leading to a 15% decline in ski school and dining revenue, and a 6% drop in retail/rental revenue, highlighting the significant negative impact of unseasonably warm weather on business.
- EBITDA Warning: Management cautioned that if weather conditions do not normalize by mid-February, the EBITDA for the 2025/2026 ski season could fall below the low end of $842 million guidance, reflecting the potential financial threat posed by climate variability.
- Historic Low Snowfall: The snowfall at Vail's western U.S. resorts was only half of the 30-year average, with Rocky Mountain snowfall down 60%, severely limiting terrain openings and negatively impacting visitation and ancillary spending.
- Regional Disparities: While the eastern snowfall provided favorable skiing conditions that somewhat mitigated the impact of poor conditions out west, overall business remains challenged, particularly in regions like Tahoe and Whistler.
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Analyst Views on MTN
Wall Street analysts forecast MTN stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 136.930
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
Current: 136.930
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
About MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a network of destination and close-to-home ski resorts in the world including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America; Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland; and Perisher, Hotham, and Falls Creek in Australia - all available on the Company's Epic Pass. The Company's segments include Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate. It also provides ancillary services, primarily including ski school, dining and retail/rental operations. The Company owns and/or manages a collection of elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand, a portfolio of vacation rentals, condominiums and branded hotels located in close proximity to its mountain destinations, as well as the Grand Teton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Company operates more than 250 retail and rental locations across North America. It owns, develops and sells real estate in and around its resort communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: Oasis Management acquired 833,500 shares of Vail Resorts (MTN) in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, indicating confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: As of February 12, 2026, Oasis's total stake in Vail was valued at $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, reflecting a positive market outlook for ski resorts.
- Market Performance Analysis: Vail Resorts shares were priced at $136.93, down approximately 12.24% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.14 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the current ski season.
- Investor Confidence: Despite a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's increased stake suggests strong belief in Vail Resorts' ability to normalize operations in the future, particularly supported by geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the fiscal second quarter 2026, ending January 31, on March 9, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will review the financial results, providing in-depth analysis for investors.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information.
- Company Overview: Vail Resorts operates a network of ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, ending January 31, 2026, after market close on March 9, 2026, reflecting the company's performance in the ski resort sector.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will provide a detailed review of the financial results, likely attracting significant attention from investors and analysts.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, 2026, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information, thereby enhancing transparency.
- Company Background: Vail Resorts operates and manages several renowned ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its dedication to sustainability.
See More
High Dividend Stocks Favored Amid Market Turbulence
- Investor Preference: During turbulent and uncertain market conditions, many investors are turning to high dividend-yielding stocks, which typically possess high free cash flows and reward shareholders with substantial dividends, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Analyst Ratings: Analysts have provided accurate ratings for three high-yielding stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, including Bloomin’ Brands Inc (NASDAQ:BLMN), Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:MTN), and Wendy’s Co (NASDAQ:WEN), indicating strong market confidence in these companies.
- Market Trends: As economic uncertainty intensifies, investors are increasingly focusing on companies that can provide stable cash flows and dividends, a trend that may drive demand and prices for these stocks higher.
- Dividend Appeal: High dividend stocks not only offer investors a stable income source but may also provide a relatively safe investment option during market volatility, attracting more investors seeking to preserve capital.
See More
Lack of Snowfall Leads Us to Reassess Our Vail Resorts Stock Recommendation
- Stock Price Prediction: Predicting stock prices is inherently challenging due to market volatility and numerous influencing factors.
- Weather Pattern Prediction: Forecasting weather patterns proves to be even more complex, highlighting the difficulties in making accurate predictions in both fields.
See More
Western U.S. Snow Shortage Raises Water Supply Concerns
- Ski Industry Impacted: The unusually warm and dry winter has significantly reduced snowfall in major ski areas like Park City and Vail, sidelining skiing and snowmobiling activities, which adversely affects tourism revenue and related industries.
- Water Supply Crisis: Snow cover across the West is near record lows, leading to insufficient snowpack that directly impacts water supply for cities, agriculture, and reservoirs, complicating the long-standing drought issues in the Colorado River basin.
- Agricultural Risks: The low snowpack has resulted in irrigation shortages, raising concerns among farmers about winter wheat crops suffering from cold snaps without protective snow cover, potentially leading to costly replanting.
- Increased Cloud Seeding Investment: States and ski operators are investing more in cloud seeding to enhance snowfall, although experts note that results are uneven; the snowpack situation in Colorado is particularly critical, affecting water supplies for approximately 40 million people in the U.S. and Mexico.
See More
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: Oasis Management acquired 833,500 shares of Vail Resorts (MTN) in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, indicating confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: As of February 12, 2026, Oasis's total stake in Vail was valued at $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, reflecting a positive market outlook for ski resorts.
- Market Performance Analysis: Vail Resorts shares were priced at $136.93, down approximately 12.24% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.14 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the current ski season.
- Investor Confidence: Despite a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's increased stake suggests strong belief in Vail Resorts' ability to normalize operations in the future, particularly supported by geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the fiscal second quarter 2026, ending January 31, on March 9, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will review the financial results, providing in-depth analysis for investors.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information.
- Company Overview: Vail Resorts operates a network of ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, ending January 31, 2026, after market close on March 9, 2026, reflecting the company's performance in the ski resort sector.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will provide a detailed review of the financial results, likely attracting significant attention from investors and analysts.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, 2026, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information, thereby enhancing transparency.
- Company Background: Vail Resorts operates and manages several renowned ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its dedication to sustainability.
See More
High Dividend Stocks Favored Amid Market Turbulence
- Investor Preference: During turbulent and uncertain market conditions, many investors are turning to high dividend-yielding stocks, which typically possess high free cash flows and reward shareholders with substantial dividends, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Analyst Ratings: Analysts have provided accurate ratings for three high-yielding stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, including Bloomin’ Brands Inc (NASDAQ:BLMN), Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:MTN), and Wendy’s Co (NASDAQ:WEN), indicating strong market confidence in these companies.
- Market Trends: As economic uncertainty intensifies, investors are increasingly focusing on companies that can provide stable cash flows and dividends, a trend that may drive demand and prices for these stocks higher.
- Dividend Appeal: High dividend stocks not only offer investors a stable income source but may also provide a relatively safe investment option during market volatility, attracting more investors seeking to preserve capital.
See More
Lack of Snowfall Leads Us to Reassess Our Vail Resorts Stock Recommendation
- Stock Price Prediction: Predicting stock prices is inherently challenging due to market volatility and numerous influencing factors.
- Weather Pattern Prediction: Forecasting weather patterns proves to be even more complex, highlighting the difficulties in making accurate predictions in both fields.
See More
Western U.S. Snow Shortage Raises Water Supply Concerns
- Ski Industry Impacted: The unusually warm and dry winter has significantly reduced snowfall in major ski areas like Park City and Vail, sidelining skiing and snowmobiling activities, which adversely affects tourism revenue and related industries.
- Water Supply Crisis: Snow cover across the West is near record lows, leading to insufficient snowpack that directly impacts water supply for cities, agriculture, and reservoirs, complicating the long-standing drought issues in the Colorado River basin.
- Agricultural Risks: The low snowpack has resulted in irrigation shortages, raising concerns among farmers about winter wheat crops suffering from cold snaps without protective snow cover, potentially leading to costly replanting.
- Increased Cloud Seeding Investment: States and ski operators are investing more in cloud seeding to enhance snowfall, although experts note that results are uneven; the snowpack situation in Colorado is particularly critical, affecting water supplies for approximately 40 million people in the U.S. and Mexico.
See More
