US Stocks Close Slightly Lower Despite Better-Than-Expected Economic Data
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy C?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Economic Data: The October S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 1.3% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 0.1% and 1.1%, indicating resilience in the housing market and potentially boosting investor confidence.
- PMI Index Recovery: The December MNI Chicago PMI increased by 9.2 to 43.5, significantly surpassing the expected 40.0, suggesting an improvement in manufacturing activity that could positively impact the stock market.
- Cautious Market Sentiment: Despite a rally in European stocks, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.14%, reflecting a cautious attitude among investors during year-end trading, particularly as the 10-year T-note yield rose to 4.13%.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: The market is pricing in only a 15% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's January meeting, indicating a cautious outlook on future monetary policy that may influence investor risk appetite.
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Analyst Views on C
Wall Street analysts forecast C stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 111.150
Low
87.00
Averages
125.50
High
146.00
Current: 111.150
Low
87.00
Averages
125.50
High
146.00
About C
Citigroup Inc. is a global diversified financial services holding company. The Company’s segments include Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth and U.S. Personal Banking (USPB). The Services segment includes Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and securities services. TTS provides an integrated suite of tailored cash management, trade and working capital solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions and public sector organizations. The Markets segment provides corporate, institutional and public sector clients around the world with a full range of sales and trading services across equities, foreign exchange, rates, spread products and commodities. The Banking segment includes investment banking, which supports client capital-raising needs to help strengthen and grow their businesses. The Wealth segment includes Private Bank, Wealth at Work and Citigold and provides financial services to a range of client segments. USPB segment includes branded cards and retail services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Short-Term Rebound Signs: As of 3:00 p.m. ET, Solana has rebounded 9% from its recent low, suggesting a potential reversal that has caught the attention of some investors, although the overall market remains unstable.
- Liquidation Pressure Fuels Buying: Nearly $16 million of the $18.7 million liquidated in Solana over the past 24 hours was tied to bearish bets, and this forced liquidation has increased buying pressure, potentially accelerating the formation of a rebound, reflecting the leverage effects in the digital asset space.
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- Political Resistance Emerges: Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina has vowed to block Warsh's nomination unless the Department of Justice halts its probe into Powell, a stance that could further delay the nomination process and impact the stability of Fed policies.
- Investigation Status Unclear: Bessent noted that the investigation into Powell centers on his testimony regarding cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation, and while subpoenas have been issued, the investigation's outcome remains uncertain, potentially affecting public trust in the Fed.
- White House Position Clear: Bessent emphasized that the White House has no influence over the U.S. Attorney's investigation, indicating a firm government stance on the matter, which may affect Senate confidence in Fed leadership and future policy formulation.
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- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
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Stocks Reverse Early Gains as All Indexes Decline Over 1%.
- Market Performance: The market experienced fluctuations, starting positively but ultimately closing lower for all three major indexes.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a sense of confusion among investors due to the market's inconsistent behavior, often referred to as "head fakes."
See More
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- Strong Performance: In 2025, Citigroup achieved record revenues across all five core businesses, with net income rising 13% year-over-year, indicating significant progress in market competitiveness and boosting investor confidence.
- Compliance and Simplification Strategy: The board highlighted Fraser's advancements in regulatory compliance and key milestones in the simplification strategy, demonstrating the company's ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and reduce risks.
- Detailed Compensation Breakdown: Fraser's compensation package includes a $1.5 billion base salary, a $6.075 million cash award, $14.175 million in deferred stock (vesting over four years), and $20.25 million in performance share units (vesting over three years), reflecting the company's focus on long-term performance.
See More
Citigroup Officer Plans to Sell $7.48 Million in Common Stock, According to Form 144
- Stock Sale Announcement: Officer Torres Cantu intends to sell 67,318 shares of its common stock on February 13.
- Market Value: The total market value of the shares to be sold is approximately $7.48 million.
See More
Solana Investors Experience Significant Volatility
- Increased Market Volatility: Over the past four months, Solana (SOL) has seen a price drop of more than 65%, while the average decline for the entire digital asset market is around 50%, indicating its sensitivity to market fluctuations which may undermine investor confidence.
- Short-Term Rebound Signs: As of 3:00 p.m. ET, Solana has rebounded 9% from its recent low, suggesting a potential reversal that has caught the attention of some investors, although the overall market remains unstable.
- Liquidation Pressure Fuels Buying: Nearly $16 million of the $18.7 million liquidated in Solana over the past 24 hours was tied to bearish bets, and this forced liquidation has increased buying pressure, potentially accelerating the formation of a rebound, reflecting the leverage effects in the digital asset space.
- Institutional Capital Inflow Potential: Citigroup has completed a pilot using the Solana blockchain for global trade finance, indicating Solana's potential to attract significant institutional capital in the future, and combined with other positive market feedback, this could enhance its network effects.
See More
Treasury Secretary Supports Advancing Fed Chair Nomination
- Nomination Hearing Advancement: Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Senate should proceed with the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Fed chair, despite an ongoing criminal investigation into current chair Jerome Powell, indicating the administration's commitment to Fed leadership.
- Political Resistance Emerges: Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina has vowed to block Warsh's nomination unless the Department of Justice halts its probe into Powell, a stance that could further delay the nomination process and impact the stability of Fed policies.
- Investigation Status Unclear: Bessent noted that the investigation into Powell centers on his testimony regarding cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation, and while subpoenas have been issued, the investigation's outcome remains uncertain, potentially affecting public trust in the Fed.
- White House Position Clear: Bessent emphasized that the White House has no influence over the U.S. Attorney's investigation, indicating a firm government stance on the matter, which may affect Senate confidence in Fed leadership and future policy formulation.
See More
2026 S&P 500 Outlook and Risk Analysis
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a sharp decline from 1.2 million in 2024, indicating weak economic growth that may put additional downward pressure on the S&P 500.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
See More
Stocks Reverse Early Gains as All Indexes Decline Over 1%.
- Market Performance: The market experienced fluctuations, starting positively but ultimately closing lower for all three major indexes.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a sense of confusion among investors due to the market's inconsistent behavior, often referred to as "head fakes."
See More
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser's Pay Increased to $42M for 2025
- Compensation Structure Change: Citigroup's board has decided to increase CEO Jane Fraser's pay to $42 million for 2025, with 82% of the compensation tied to stock or performance share units, reflecting high recognition of her performance.
- Strong Performance: In 2025, Citigroup achieved record revenues across all five core businesses, with net income rising 13% year-over-year, indicating significant progress in market competitiveness and boosting investor confidence.
- Compliance and Simplification Strategy: The board highlighted Fraser's advancements in regulatory compliance and key milestones in the simplification strategy, demonstrating the company's ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and reduce risks.
- Detailed Compensation Breakdown: Fraser's compensation package includes a $1.5 billion base salary, a $6.075 million cash award, $14.175 million in deferred stock (vesting over four years), and $20.25 million in performance share units (vesting over three years), reflecting the company's focus on long-term performance.
See More
