UK's GDP Increases While Trade Deficit Expands
UK GDP Growth: The UK's real GDP increased by 0.1% in August 2025, following a revised 0.1% decline in July, with a year-over-year decrease in monthly GDP from 1.50% to 1.30%.
Trade Deficit and Imports/Exports: The UK trade deficit widened to £3.39 billion in August, with exports falling by 1.2% and imports decreasing by 0.7%, despite a rise in imports of certain goods from the EU.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on EWU
About the author
UK's GDP Grows by 0.1% in Q3, Aligning with Projections
UK GDP Growth: The UK's GDP grew by 0.10% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, aligning with estimates, and saw a year-over-year increase of 1.30%.
Market Tracking ETFs: Several ETFs are available to track the UK market, including FXB, EWU, FKU, EWUS, and FLGB.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Soft inflation in October strengthens the argument for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December.
European Market Trends: European indexes rose following significant decisions from major banks, while the ECB is preparing for a digital Euro, pending approval.
UK PMI Data Indicates Expansion in Business Activity
S&P Global Flash UK PMI: The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI rose to 52.1 in December from 51.2 in November, indicating a moderate increase in output levels across both manufacturing and service sectors.
Manufacturing and Services Growth: The Flash UK Manufacturing PMI reached a 15-month high of 51.2, while the Flash UK Services PMI increased to a 2-month high of 52.1, reflecting faster business activity despite subdued growth compared to long-term trends.
Economic Growth Outlook: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the PMI data suggests GDP growth could accelerate to 0.2% in December, although a modest 0.1% gain is expected for the fourth quarter overall.
Market Reactions: European markets showed positive movement ahead of a week filled with central bank announcements, indicating a revived risk appetite among investors.
UK Composite and Services PMIs Decline in November Yet Exceed Forecasts
UK Composite PMI: The Composite PMI in the UK fell to 51.20 in November from 52.20 in October 2025, although it exceeded expectations.
Services PMI: The Services PMI also decreased, dropping to 51.30 in November from 52.30 in October 2025.
Market Sentiment: European markets experienced a decline as global risk-off sentiment returned, with investors seeking new catalysts.
Stock Performance: There is a widening volatility spread in tech stocks, with the Mag-10 stocks underperforming compared to the broader market.
UK Banks Pass Bank of England's Stress Tests
Bank Stress Test Results: Large UK banks have successfully passed the Bank of England's stress tests, indicating they have enough capital to handle adverse economic scenarios.
Participating Banks: The banks that cleared the tests include Barclays, HSBC Holdings, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group, Banco Santander's UK unit, and Standard Chartered.
Regulatory Compliance: All participating banks maintained capital levels above the minimum regulatory requirements as per the stress test results.
Market Context: The article also mentions related topics such as UK inflation trends and the performance of European markets amid economic uncertainties.
UK Manufacturing PMI Increases to 50.2 in November
UK Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI in the UK rose to 50.20 in November 2025, up from 49.70 in October, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Market Sentiment: European indexes experienced a decline as global sentiment weakened, coinciding with a significant rise in bond yields.
Inflation Trends: July's UK CPI data showed rising inflation, but the Bank of England may choose to overlook short-term fluctuations.
Investment Outlook: There are expectations that UK stocks could outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3-5 years, as indicated by recent analyses.
UK Private Sector Growth Slows Down in November
Manufacturing and Services PMI Trends: The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash rose to 50.2 in November, while the Services PMI fell to 50.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and a decline in new work for the first time since July.
Economic Growth and Business Activity: The adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index recorded 50.5, suggesting continued but slowing growth in the private sector, with average cost burdens increasing and inflation rates accelerating.
Economic Outlook and Job Market: Chris Williamson from S&P Global noted that the PMI data indicates stalled economic growth, accelerated job losses, and deteriorating business confidence, aligning with a minimal GDP growth forecast for November.
Potential Policy Shifts: The current economic conditions may lead to a shift in policy focus from inflation concerns to supporting the economy, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December.
UK's GDP Grows by 0.1% in Q3, Aligning with Projections
UK GDP Growth: The UK's GDP grew by 0.10% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, aligning with estimates, and saw a year-over-year increase of 1.30%.
Market Tracking ETFs: Several ETFs are available to track the UK market, including FXB, EWU, FKU, EWUS, and FLGB.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Soft inflation in October strengthens the argument for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December.
European Market Trends: European indexes rose following significant decisions from major banks, while the ECB is preparing for a digital Euro, pending approval.
UK PMI Data Indicates Expansion in Business Activity
S&P Global Flash UK PMI: The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI rose to 52.1 in December from 51.2 in November, indicating a moderate increase in output levels across both manufacturing and service sectors.
Manufacturing and Services Growth: The Flash UK Manufacturing PMI reached a 15-month high of 51.2, while the Flash UK Services PMI increased to a 2-month high of 52.1, reflecting faster business activity despite subdued growth compared to long-term trends.
Economic Growth Outlook: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the PMI data suggests GDP growth could accelerate to 0.2% in December, although a modest 0.1% gain is expected for the fourth quarter overall.
Market Reactions: European markets showed positive movement ahead of a week filled with central bank announcements, indicating a revived risk appetite among investors.
UK Composite and Services PMIs Decline in November Yet Exceed Forecasts
UK Composite PMI: The Composite PMI in the UK fell to 51.20 in November from 52.20 in October 2025, although it exceeded expectations.
Services PMI: The Services PMI also decreased, dropping to 51.30 in November from 52.30 in October 2025.
Market Sentiment: European markets experienced a decline as global risk-off sentiment returned, with investors seeking new catalysts.
Stock Performance: There is a widening volatility spread in tech stocks, with the Mag-10 stocks underperforming compared to the broader market.
UK Banks Pass Bank of England's Stress Tests
Bank Stress Test Results: Large UK banks have successfully passed the Bank of England's stress tests, indicating they have enough capital to handle adverse economic scenarios.
Participating Banks: The banks that cleared the tests include Barclays, HSBC Holdings, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group, Banco Santander's UK unit, and Standard Chartered.
Regulatory Compliance: All participating banks maintained capital levels above the minimum regulatory requirements as per the stress test results.
Market Context: The article also mentions related topics such as UK inflation trends and the performance of European markets amid economic uncertainties.
UK Manufacturing PMI Increases to 50.2 in November
UK Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI in the UK rose to 50.20 in November 2025, up from 49.70 in October, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Market Sentiment: European indexes experienced a decline as global sentiment weakened, coinciding with a significant rise in bond yields.
Inflation Trends: July's UK CPI data showed rising inflation, but the Bank of England may choose to overlook short-term fluctuations.
Investment Outlook: There are expectations that UK stocks could outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3-5 years, as indicated by recent analyses.
UK Private Sector Growth Slows Down in November
Manufacturing and Services PMI Trends: The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash rose to 50.2 in November, while the Services PMI fell to 50.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and a decline in new work for the first time since July.
Economic Growth and Business Activity: The adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index recorded 50.5, suggesting continued but slowing growth in the private sector, with average cost burdens increasing and inflation rates accelerating.
Economic Outlook and Job Market: Chris Williamson from S&P Global noted that the PMI data indicates stalled economic growth, accelerated job losses, and deteriorating business confidence, aligning with a minimal GDP growth forecast for November.
Potential Policy Shifts: The current economic conditions may lead to a shift in policy focus from inflation concerns to supporting the economy, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December.
