UBS: Hong Kong Office Market Could Be Approaching a Turning Point; Decline in Grade A Office Rents Expected to Slow
Improvement in Office Market: The financial sector's recruitment boost has led to improved net absorption in Hong Kong's Grade A office market, particularly in Central, indicating a potential recovery.
Rent Decline Projections: Rent declines for Grade A offices are expected to narrow significantly, with a forecast of 5% this year and a stable outlook for next year, compared to a 12% decline last year.
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<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong Property Developers and Landlords (Table)
Property Developers Performance: Various property developers showed mixed performance with SHK PPT and Henderson Land rated as neutral, while CK Asset and Sino Land received buy ratings. New World Development was rated underperform.
Landlords Overview: Hysan Development and Swire Properties experienced declines, but all listed landlords, including Wharf REIC and Hang Lung Properties, received buy ratings, indicating positive market sentiment.
REITs Market Status: LINK REIT saw a significant increase in share price and was rated a buy, reflecting optimism in the REIT sector.
Conglomerates Insights: MTR Corporation and CKH Holdings were rated underperform and buy respectively, with short selling activity indicating varying investor confidence in these conglomerates.
G Sachs' Recommended Buy List for H Shares According to ERLI (Table)
Goldman Sachs Buy Stocks: Goldman Sachs released a list of Buy stocks in Hong Kong based on the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI), including notable companies like AIA, Xiaomi, and HKEX.
Stock Performance: The report highlighted various stocks with their respective short selling data, showing significant short selling ratios for companies like Ping An and JD Logistics.
Market Reactions: AIA received positive outlook from Haitong International, which raised its target price, indicating optimism about its growth prospects for 2026/2027.
Short Selling Trends: The report detailed short selling activities across multiple stocks, with varying ratios indicating market sentiment and potential investor strategies.
HSI Jumps 54 Points at Midday, Weighed Down by TENCENT and KUAISHOU; Banks and Homebuilders Rise
Market Overview: The HSI rose by 54 points (0.2%) to 26,830, while the HSCEI fell by 19 points (0.2%) to 9,060, and the HSTECH dropped by 72 points (1.3%) to 5,453, with a total half-day turnover of $195.285 billion.
Tech Sector Performance: Major tech stocks like TENCENT and BIDU-SW saw significant declines of 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively, with TENCENT's turnover nearing $26 billion, while other tech companies also experienced losses.
Banking Sector Gains: Banks such as HSBC and BOC HONG KONG reported gains of 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, contributing to a positive trend in the banking sector, alongside notable increases in Chinese insurers.
Commodity and Real Estate Stocks: Commodity prices rose, with companies like ZIJIN GOLD INTL and CMOC increasing by over 4%, while Hong Kong homebuilders also saw gains, with HENDERSON LAND and SHK PPT rising by 2.1% and 1.7%.
UBS Names CKH HOLDINGS and SWIRE PACIFIC A as Preferred Choices Among Conglomerates
Stock Performance Overview: Hong Kong conglomerates' stock performance in 2025 was influenced by asset sales and capital recovery, according to a UBS report.
Investor Valuation Shift: Investors are increasingly valuing companies based on price-to-book (P/B) ratios rather than dividend yields, with expectations of Fed rate cuts promoting further asset sales.
Top Stock Picks: UBS identified Jardine Matheson, CKH Holdings, and Swire Pacific A as top stock picks, with CKH Holdings receiving a Buy rating and an increased target price.
Target Price Adjustments: CKH Holdings' target price was raised from HKD58.8 to HKD67, while Swire Pacific A's target price was lowered from HKD74 to HKD72.7.
HSI Falls 147 Points at Midday as TRIP.COM-S Plummets Nearly 20%; NEW WORLD DEV Rises 12%
Market Performance: The HSI fell 0.5% to 26,852, with the HSCEI down 0.7% and HSTECH dropping 1.8%, while total half-day turnover reached $163.897 billion.
TRIP.COM-S Decline: TRIP.COM-S shares plummeted 19.6% to $457.6 amid an antitrust investigation, with significant short selling activity reported.
Baidu's Potential Listing Upgrade: BIDU-SW saw a slight increase of 0.3% as rumors circulated about its potential upgrade to a primary listing in Hong Kong.
Positive Outlook for Hong Kong Property: BofA Securities predicts a 5-10% rise in Hong Kong residential property prices this year, with an additional 5% increase expected next year, positively impacting local homebuilders.
G Sachs Provides Stock Buy Recommendations for HK Following ERLI (Table)
Earnings Outlook: Goldman Sachs reports a 1.3% month-over-month increase in the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI) for December 2025, with a total gain of 6.9% over the past three months, indicating the strongest growth since 2021.
Stock Recommendations: Based on the ERLI, Goldman Sachs has issued Buy recommendations for several Hong Kong stocks, including AIA, Ping An, and ZTO Express, highlighting potential earnings uplift driven by improvements in technology and manufacturing.
Market Performance: The report includes various stock performance metrics, showing fluctuations in share prices and short selling ratios for companies like Xiaomi, HKEX, and CHALCO, reflecting market sentiment and trading activity.
Future Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates that the earnings uplift trend may continue into early 2026, supported by ongoing advancements in the technology and manufacturing sectors.
<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong Property Developers and Landlords (Table)
Property Developers Performance: Various property developers showed mixed performance with SHK PPT and Henderson Land rated as neutral, while CK Asset and Sino Land received buy ratings. New World Development was rated underperform.
Landlords Overview: Hysan Development and Swire Properties experienced declines, but all listed landlords, including Wharf REIC and Hang Lung Properties, received buy ratings, indicating positive market sentiment.
REITs Market Status: LINK REIT saw a significant increase in share price and was rated a buy, reflecting optimism in the REIT sector.
Conglomerates Insights: MTR Corporation and CKH Holdings were rated underperform and buy respectively, with short selling activity indicating varying investor confidence in these conglomerates.
G Sachs' Recommended Buy List for H Shares According to ERLI (Table)
Goldman Sachs Buy Stocks: Goldman Sachs released a list of Buy stocks in Hong Kong based on the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI), including notable companies like AIA, Xiaomi, and HKEX.
Stock Performance: The report highlighted various stocks with their respective short selling data, showing significant short selling ratios for companies like Ping An and JD Logistics.
Market Reactions: AIA received positive outlook from Haitong International, which raised its target price, indicating optimism about its growth prospects for 2026/2027.
Short Selling Trends: The report detailed short selling activities across multiple stocks, with varying ratios indicating market sentiment and potential investor strategies.
HSI Jumps 54 Points at Midday, Weighed Down by TENCENT and KUAISHOU; Banks and Homebuilders Rise
Market Overview: The HSI rose by 54 points (0.2%) to 26,830, while the HSCEI fell by 19 points (0.2%) to 9,060, and the HSTECH dropped by 72 points (1.3%) to 5,453, with a total half-day turnover of $195.285 billion.
Tech Sector Performance: Major tech stocks like TENCENT and BIDU-SW saw significant declines of 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively, with TENCENT's turnover nearing $26 billion, while other tech companies also experienced losses.
Banking Sector Gains: Banks such as HSBC and BOC HONG KONG reported gains of 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, contributing to a positive trend in the banking sector, alongside notable increases in Chinese insurers.
Commodity and Real Estate Stocks: Commodity prices rose, with companies like ZIJIN GOLD INTL and CMOC increasing by over 4%, while Hong Kong homebuilders also saw gains, with HENDERSON LAND and SHK PPT rising by 2.1% and 1.7%.
UBS Names CKH HOLDINGS and SWIRE PACIFIC A as Preferred Choices Among Conglomerates
Stock Performance Overview: Hong Kong conglomerates' stock performance in 2025 was influenced by asset sales and capital recovery, according to a UBS report.
Investor Valuation Shift: Investors are increasingly valuing companies based on price-to-book (P/B) ratios rather than dividend yields, with expectations of Fed rate cuts promoting further asset sales.
Top Stock Picks: UBS identified Jardine Matheson, CKH Holdings, and Swire Pacific A as top stock picks, with CKH Holdings receiving a Buy rating and an increased target price.
Target Price Adjustments: CKH Holdings' target price was raised from HKD58.8 to HKD67, while Swire Pacific A's target price was lowered from HKD74 to HKD72.7.
HSI Falls 147 Points at Midday as TRIP.COM-S Plummets Nearly 20%; NEW WORLD DEV Rises 12%
Market Performance: The HSI fell 0.5% to 26,852, with the HSCEI down 0.7% and HSTECH dropping 1.8%, while total half-day turnover reached $163.897 billion.
TRIP.COM-S Decline: TRIP.COM-S shares plummeted 19.6% to $457.6 amid an antitrust investigation, with significant short selling activity reported.
Baidu's Potential Listing Upgrade: BIDU-SW saw a slight increase of 0.3% as rumors circulated about its potential upgrade to a primary listing in Hong Kong.
Positive Outlook for Hong Kong Property: BofA Securities predicts a 5-10% rise in Hong Kong residential property prices this year, with an additional 5% increase expected next year, positively impacting local homebuilders.
G Sachs Provides Stock Buy Recommendations for HK Following ERLI (Table)
Earnings Outlook: Goldman Sachs reports a 1.3% month-over-month increase in the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI) for December 2025, with a total gain of 6.9% over the past three months, indicating the strongest growth since 2021.
Stock Recommendations: Based on the ERLI, Goldman Sachs has issued Buy recommendations for several Hong Kong stocks, including AIA, Ping An, and ZTO Express, highlighting potential earnings uplift driven by improvements in technology and manufacturing.
Market Performance: The report includes various stock performance metrics, showing fluctuations in share prices and short selling ratios for companies like Xiaomi, HKEX, and CHALCO, reflecting market sentiment and trading activity.
Future Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates that the earnings uplift trend may continue into early 2026, supported by ongoing advancements in the technology and manufacturing sectors.
