SHOP, GOOS, TRI: Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Interest Rates Steady
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its overnight interest rate at 2.75% during the upcoming policy meeting, with low chances of a rate cut due to recent inflation data and a resilient labor market.
Economic Outlook and Stock Performance: Despite an unexpected job increase in June, the Canadian economy faces challenges such as a potential contraction and ongoing tariff disputes with the U.S., affecting stock performance, particularly for companies like Canada Goose, which has a Moderate Sell rating from analysts.
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Earnings Report Impact: Shopify's stock experienced a significant drop following its earnings report, which may cause concern among investors.
Long-term Potential: Despite the short-term decline, analysts suggest that Shopify's long-term growth prospects remain strong, encouraging investors to stay the course.
Market Reactions: The market's reaction to Shopify's earnings highlights the volatility often seen in tech stocks, particularly after earnings announcements.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to focus on Shopify's fundamentals and growth strategy rather than reacting impulsively to immediate stock price fluctuations.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Shopify's Q4 revenue surged by 31% to $3.67 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.58 billion, demonstrating the company's robust performance in the e-commerce sector despite a declining stock price.
- Strong GMV Performance: The platform's gross merchandise volume (GMV) also rose by 31% to $123.84 billion, with Europe showing a remarkable 45% increase, indicating the company's strong expansion capabilities in international markets.
- AI-Driven Innovations: Shopify has launched AI-powered tools like Sidekick and Sidekick Pulse, aimed at enhancing merchant operational efficiency through automation and data-driven advice, showcasing the company's proactive approach to technological innovation.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company forecasts Q1 revenue growth in the low 30% range, significantly above the 25.1% growth analysts anticipated, and has initiated a $2 billion stock buyback program, reflecting management's confidence in future growth prospects.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Shopify reported a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $3.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.58 billion, indicating robust performance in the e-commerce software sector.
- Significant GMV Increase: The platform's gross merchandise volume (GMV) also rose by 31% to $123.84 billion, with Europe showing a 45% increase in GMV, reflecting strong demand in international markets.
- AI-Driven Innovations: Shopify is actively leveraging artificial intelligence by launching tools like Sidekick for task automation and developing a universal commerce protocol (UCP) in collaboration with Alphabet to standardize AI agent connections with brands, further driving business growth.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company forecasts Q1 revenue growth in the low 30% range, well above the 25.1% growth analysts expected, and has initiated a $2 billion stock buyback program, demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Price Range Analysis: QQQI ETF's 52-week low is $41.1701 per share and high is $55.93, with the last trade at $52.51, indicating stability and potential investment opportunities in the current market.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the underlying holdings of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), allowing for assessment of their impact on underlying assets.
- Market Decline: The S&P North American Technology Software Index has fallen 30% since its record high in September, entering bear market territory primarily due to investor concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt the software industry, raising doubts about the durability of current software products and business models.
- Nvidia CEO's Perspective: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes the market has misread AI's impact, stating that many software companies are under pressure due to fears of AI replacement, which he calls 'the most illogical thing in the world,' suggesting that the current market situation may present opportunities for patient investors.
- Shopify's Investment Potential: Analysts have set a median target price of $162.50 per share for Shopify, indicating a 55% upside from the current price of $105; despite a high P/E ratio of 75, earnings are projected to grow by 30% in 2026, with sales expected to increase by 26%, highlighting strong growth potential.
- AppLovin's Competitive Edge: AppLovin's median target price is $710 per share, suggesting a 92% upside from the current price of $370; with its Axon machine learning ad engine and Max mediation platform, AppLovin delivers higher ad spending returns than Meta and other platforms, showcasing a durable competitive advantage.
- Market Reaction to Software Stocks: The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined by 30% since reaching a record high in September, entering bear market territory, reflecting investor concerns that AI may disrupt the software industry, leading to significant pressure on many software companies' stock prices.
- Nvidia CEO's Perspective: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes the market's reaction to AI is irrational, stating that many software companies will not be replaced by AI, and he describes the current market sentiment as 'the most illogical thing in the world,' presenting an opportunity for patient investors.
- Shopify's AI Integration: Shopify has integrated its merchants' product catalogs into AI tools like ChatGPT and Gemini, resulting in a 15-fold increase in orders from AI searches since January 2025, showcasing its innovative capabilities and adaptability in the e-commerce sector.
- AppLovin's Advertising Tech Advantage: AppLovin's Axon machine learning ad engine delivers a 45% higher return on ad spend compared to Meta and a 115% higher return compared to platforms like TikTok, Pinterest, and YouTube, highlighting its competitive edge in the advertising technology space.







