Santoli's Monday Market Recap: Stocks Rebound Following 'Risk-On' Surge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: CNBC
Market Overview: Stocks are recovering after a strong "risk-on" rally, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month while maintaining a steady economy.
Index Performance: Small-cap stocks like the Russell 2000 and Dow are lagging behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reversing trends from Friday's rally where small and value stocks outperformed.
Market Sentiment: A significant portion of NYSE volume was positive on Friday, indicating strong buying demand, but this occurred after only a minor dip in the market, raising questions about the reliability of such signals.
Upcoming Events: The market is anticipating Nvidia's earnings report and PCE inflation data later this week, amidst a generally subdued volatility index as it navigates through late-summer market conditions.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 186.940
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 186.940
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Earnings Report to Signal Market Direction
- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
See More
Nvidia Poised for Strong GPU Sales in China Again
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
AI Spending Surge: Data Center Investment Outlook Brightens
- AI Spending Forecast: Global spending on artificial intelligence is projected to reach $300 billion to $400 billion by 2026, reflecting hyperscalers' immense potential and investment willingness in this technology, which is likely to drive stock prices of Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor higher.
- Total Capital Expenditure: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are expected to collectively invest over $500 billion in 2023 for data center construction and equipment procurement, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure and further promoting growth in related industries.
- Surge in Chip Demand: Chips account for nearly half of the costs in data center construction, positioning Nvidia and Broadcom to directly benefit from this trend, while Taiwan Semiconductor, as a major chip manufacturer, will continue to profit, ensuring its significant market position.
- Market Valuation Rationality: Despite Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor being projected to achieve impressive revenue growth rates of 64%, 51%, and 34% respectively, the market has not assigned them significant premiums, indicating that these stocks remain highly attractive investment options at current prices.
See More
Can Sandisk Become the New Nvidia of AI Storage?
- Massive Market Potential: Sandisk generated only $9 billion in revenue last year, while the total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is estimated at $35 billion, expected to grow at a 40% CAGR to $100 billion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Sandisk in the rapidly expanding AI memory market.
- Industry Transformation: Sandisk is pivoting from traditional flash drives to become a key component of AI data centers, with its enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) and NAND flash services becoming integral to hyperscaler data center stacks, mirroring Nvidia's early development in the AI space.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: This year, the
See More
New 401(k) Catch-Up Rule Could Boost Retirement Savings
- Increased Catch-Up Opportunities: Under the SECURE 2.0 Act, individuals aged 60 to 63 can make a 'super catch-up' contribution of up to $11,250, raising the total allowable 401(k) contribution to $35,750, significantly enhancing retirement savings potential.
- Income Limitations Impact: While catch-up options are appealing, lower-income 49-year-olds may find it challenging to take advantage of this opportunity, highlighting the advantages high earners have in retirement savings.
- Tax Benefits: By making a super catch-up in a traditional 401(k), savers can shield additional income from taxes this year, enhancing retirement flexibility, especially for 60-year-olds with $2.5 million saved.
- New Roth Account Rule: Those aged 50 and older with incomes exceeding $150,000 can only make 401(k) catch-ups in a Roth account, and although they lose the immediate tax break of a traditional 401(k), the tax-free growth benefits of a Roth account remain compelling.
See More
Bridgewater Fund Outperforms S&P 500 with 12.41% Gain
- Strong Performance: Bridgewater Associates achieved a 12.41% gain over the past year, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 12%, indicating the effectiveness of its investment strategy in the technology sector and boosting investor confidence.
- Significant Holding Changes: The latest 13F filing reveals that Bridgewater increased its stake in NVIDIA from 3.50 million shares to 3.87 million, an 11% rise, while Salesforce saw a dramatic 285% increase from 502,400 shares to 1.93 million, reflecting a strong bullish outlook on tech stocks.
- Strategic Reductions: In contrast, Alphabet's holdings were significantly reduced by 56%, dropping from 3.62 million shares to 1.59 million, indicating a selective investment strategy in tech stocks that may reflect a reassessment of market prospects.
- Diversified Portfolio: Bridgewater's top five holdings include the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust at 11.08% and NVIDIA at 2.63%, with their quantitative ratings demonstrating robust performance in the market, further solidifying their position in the investment community.
See More
Nvidia's Earnings Report to Signal Market Direction
- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
See More
Nvidia Poised for Strong GPU Sales in China Again
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
AI Spending Surge: Data Center Investment Outlook Brightens
- AI Spending Forecast: Global spending on artificial intelligence is projected to reach $300 billion to $400 billion by 2026, reflecting hyperscalers' immense potential and investment willingness in this technology, which is likely to drive stock prices of Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor higher.
- Total Capital Expenditure: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are expected to collectively invest over $500 billion in 2023 for data center construction and equipment procurement, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure and further promoting growth in related industries.
- Surge in Chip Demand: Chips account for nearly half of the costs in data center construction, positioning Nvidia and Broadcom to directly benefit from this trend, while Taiwan Semiconductor, as a major chip manufacturer, will continue to profit, ensuring its significant market position.
- Market Valuation Rationality: Despite Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor being projected to achieve impressive revenue growth rates of 64%, 51%, and 34% respectively, the market has not assigned them significant premiums, indicating that these stocks remain highly attractive investment options at current prices.
See More
Can Sandisk Become the New Nvidia of AI Storage?
- Massive Market Potential: Sandisk generated only $9 billion in revenue last year, while the total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is estimated at $35 billion, expected to grow at a 40% CAGR to $100 billion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Sandisk in the rapidly expanding AI memory market.
- Industry Transformation: Sandisk is pivoting from traditional flash drives to become a key component of AI data centers, with its enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) and NAND flash services becoming integral to hyperscaler data center stacks, mirroring Nvidia's early development in the AI space.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: This year, the
See More
New 401(k) Catch-Up Rule Could Boost Retirement Savings
- Increased Catch-Up Opportunities: Under the SECURE 2.0 Act, individuals aged 60 to 63 can make a 'super catch-up' contribution of up to $11,250, raising the total allowable 401(k) contribution to $35,750, significantly enhancing retirement savings potential.
- Income Limitations Impact: While catch-up options are appealing, lower-income 49-year-olds may find it challenging to take advantage of this opportunity, highlighting the advantages high earners have in retirement savings.
- Tax Benefits: By making a super catch-up in a traditional 401(k), savers can shield additional income from taxes this year, enhancing retirement flexibility, especially for 60-year-olds with $2.5 million saved.
- New Roth Account Rule: Those aged 50 and older with incomes exceeding $150,000 can only make 401(k) catch-ups in a Roth account, and although they lose the immediate tax break of a traditional 401(k), the tax-free growth benefits of a Roth account remain compelling.
See More
Bridgewater Fund Outperforms S&P 500 with 12.41% Gain
- Strong Performance: Bridgewater Associates achieved a 12.41% gain over the past year, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 12%, indicating the effectiveness of its investment strategy in the technology sector and boosting investor confidence.
- Significant Holding Changes: The latest 13F filing reveals that Bridgewater increased its stake in NVIDIA from 3.50 million shares to 3.87 million, an 11% rise, while Salesforce saw a dramatic 285% increase from 502,400 shares to 1.93 million, reflecting a strong bullish outlook on tech stocks.
- Strategic Reductions: In contrast, Alphabet's holdings were significantly reduced by 56%, dropping from 3.62 million shares to 1.59 million, indicating a selective investment strategy in tech stocks that may reflect a reassessment of market prospects.
- Diversified Portfolio: Bridgewater's top five holdings include the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust at 11.08% and NVIDIA at 2.63%, with their quantitative ratings demonstrating robust performance in the market, further solidifying their position in the investment community.
See More
