Reevaluating Qualys (QLYS) Valuation Following Recent 15% Surge in Share Price
Recent Share Price Performance: Qualys (QLYS) has experienced a 15% increase in share price over the past month, indicating a shift in investor sentiment despite a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 8%.
Valuation Insights: Analysts suggest that Qualys is currently undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $142.56, reflecting expectations for steady growth rather than explosive increases.
Innovative Offerings: The adoption of Qualys' new cloud-native risk operations center and Agentic AI platform positions the company as a leader in pre-breach risk management, potentially leading to increased revenue and earnings growth.
Market Risks: Rapid changes in AI security and evolving customer preferences pose risks to Qualys' strategy, which could impact its revenue and competitive standing in the market.
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- Executive Stock Sale: Qualys CFO Joo Mi Kim sold 6,799 shares on February 4, 2026, for approximately $873,369.30, indicating a potential decline in confidence regarding the company's future performance.
- Holding Proportion Impact: This sale represented 7.14% of her direct holdings, significantly higher than the recent median of 1.05%, suggesting that the reduction in available shares may impact shareholder confidence moving forward.
- Market Reaction: Although the weighted average sale price was $128.46, close to the market close of $129.18, the stock price fell to a 52-week low of $107.17 following the company's revenue guidance announcement, reflecting market concerns over slowing growth.
- Future Outlook: Qualys forecasts 2026 sales between $717 million and $725 million, representing 7% to 8% growth, which, while solid, is lower than the 10% year-over-year increase seen in 2025, potentially leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
- Analyst Rating: Qualys (QLYS) has received a hold rating from analysts, indicating a cautious outlook on its future performance, which may influence investor decisions.
- Price Target Setting: The average price target set by analysts is $138.71, reflecting market expectations regarding Qualys's future growth potential and providing a reference point for investors.
- Market Reaction: The hold rating may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach towards Qualys's stock in the short term, potentially affecting its price volatility, especially in times of market uncertainty.
- Investment Strategy Impact: The analysts' rating and price target will influence institutional investors' asset allocation strategies, potentially resulting in capital inflows or outflows for Qualys, thereby impacting its market performance.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Qualys reported Q4 2025 revenues of $175.3 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, with international revenue growth at 15%, showcasing the company's strong performance in the global cybersecurity market and reinforcing its leadership position.
- Enhanced Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA reached $82.6 million with a 47% margin, despite a 14% increase in sales and marketing investments, indicating effective cost control and enhancing the sustainability of future profits.
- Expanded Shareholder Return Program: The Board authorized an additional $200 million to the share repurchase program, bringing the total to $360.5 million, demonstrating confidence in the company's value and providing shareholders with increased return opportunities.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The company projects 2026 revenues between $717 million and $725 million, representing a growth rate of 7% to 8%, with expected EPS ranging from $7.17 to $7.45, reflecting management's confidence in future growth and positive market demand.
- Market Outlook: The outlook for FY ADJ EPS is projected to increase from $7.17 to $7.45.
- Financial Performance: This adjustment indicates a positive trend in the company's financial performance for the fiscal year.
- Earnings Announcement: Qualys (QLYS) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 5th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $1.78, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year increase, and revenue estimates at $173.18 million, up 8.8% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Qualys has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, showcasing the company's robust ability to manage market expectations and maintain stable financial performance.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 21 upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced 20 upward revisions, indicating increased analyst confidence in the company's future performance, which could further drive stock price appreciation.
- Market Focus: Qualys will present at the upcoming UBS Global Technology and AI Conference, drawing significant investor attention, which may lead to new market opportunities and bolster investor confidence.
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: QLYS's 52-week low is $112.61 per share, with a high of $155.47, and the last trade at $135.76 indicates significant price movement within this range, reflecting market interest and investor sentiment changes.
- Market Trend Observation: The current price of $135.76 is near the midpoint of the 52-week range, suggesting a cautious market outlook on QLYS's future performance, which may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Indicator Reference: QLYS's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, potentially attracting more technical analysis investors, which could further drive short-term price volatility.
- Investor Sentiment Assessment: Despite the current price fluctuations within the 52-week range, there is a lack of strong buy signals, prompting investors to closely monitor market dynamics for informed investment decisions.








