Record $30 Billion in NFL Bets Expected from Americans This Season
NFL Sports Betting Forecast
- Projected Betting Amount: Americans are expected to place around $30 billion in legal sports bets during the 2025 NFL season, marking an 8.5% increase from the previous season's estimated handle of $27.6 billion.
- Scope of Betting: This estimate encompasses preseason games, futures bets made as early as March, playoffs, and Super Bowl LX scheduled for February 2026.
Legal Sports Betting Landscape
- Availability: As of the 2025 NFL season kickoff, legal sports betting is operational in 38 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Missouri is the only new state approved for legal sports betting, but its launch on December 1 will occur after the season starts.
- Market Growth: The growth in the U.S. sports betting market is expected to be primarily organic, given the limited number of new states entering the market.
Market Share of Sportsbooks
- Leading Operators: As of July, FanDuel holds a dominant 39.0% share of the U.S. online sports betting market, followed by DraftKings at 34.4%. Fanatics/PointsBet and Bet MGM hold 7.9% and 7.0% respectively, while Caesars Sportsbook, Bet365, and ESPN Bet each have over 2% market share.
- Betting Margins: Online sports betting operators have recently increased their hold rates, with sportsbooks typically enjoying higher margins on parlays and prop bets, while facing lower margins when heavy favorites win.
Overall Sports Betting Trends
- Total Handle Projection: The total legal sports betting handle in the U.S. is projected to reach approximately $164 billion across all sports in 2025, reflecting a 9.5% increase from 2024. Football, including both NFL and college games, remains the primary driver of wagering activity.
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Gaming companies make a final push to overturn law taxing 'phantom' earnings.
Gambling Loss Deductibility Changes: A new law set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will limit the deductibility of gambling losses to 90%, prompting concerns from lawmakers and industry groups about the potential negative impact on high-volume and professional bettors.
Phantom Income Tax Concerns: Gamblers who break even could still face taxes on "phantom" winnings, which may drive high-stakes gamblers to illegal offshore operators and discourage overall participation in legal betting, potentially harming casino and sportsbook revenues.
Legislative Efforts for Repeal: Representative Dina Titus has introduced the FAIR BET Act to restore full deductibility of gambling losses, arguing that the 90% cap forces taxpayers to pay taxes on income they do not actually retain.
Industry Support for Repeal: Major casino CEOs have collaborated with the American Gaming Association to rally support against the 90% cap, emphasizing the need to prevent it from becoming law during year-end tax negotiations.
New York City Takes Center Stage as Casino License Decision Day Approaches
Casino License Awards: New York is set to award up to three casino licenses for the NYC region on December 1, with a public meeting scheduled at the CUNY Graduate Center.
Community Review Impact: High-profile bids like Caesars Palace Times Square withdrew due to local opposition, leading to only three remaining contenders: Resorts World New York City, Bally's Bronx project, and the Metropolitan Park casino.
Projected Opening Dates: If awarded a license, Resorts World could start gambling by mid-2026, while the other two projects are not expected to open until around 2030.
Market Context: The article also touches on the performance of casino stocks and the broader gaming market, including the recovery in Macau and the launch of sports betting in Missouri.
Missouri Introduces Sports Betting Amid Growing Pressure on Remaining Holdouts
Missouri Sports Betting Launch: Missouri officially launched legal sports betting on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, supported by national brands and local partnerships.
Regulatory Framework: The legalization, driven by voter-approved Amendment 2, allows for up to 14 online licenses, with the Missouri Gaming Commission overseeing licensing and compliance.
Market Competition: Major online operators like bet365, BetMGM, and DraftKings are expected to launch, utilizing aggressive promotions to capture market share during a busy sports calendar.
Future of Sports Betting: Analysts predict that all 50 states may legalize sports betting within five years, influenced by the rise of prediction market platforms and ongoing legislative efforts in various states.
From Favorites to Longshots: Introducing the Key Contenders in Missouri's Sports Betting Competition
Launch of Legal Sports Betting: Missouri will launch legal sports betting statewide on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, driven by competitive online markets and aggressive promotions from major brands.
Licensing and Market Access: The Missouri Gaming Commission will oversee up to 14 online licenses and numerous retail licenses, with major players like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM expected to lead the market, leveraging partnerships with local teams and casinos.
Key Players and Strategies: DraftKings and Circa Sports hold untethered licenses, allowing them to operate without casino partnerships, while FanDuel is anticipated to dominate market share through its national presence and innovative betting options.
Emerging Competitors: Other notable entrants include bet365, Fanatics, and Underdog Sports, each employing unique strategies such as merchandise integration and modern tech to enhance user experience in the competitive landscape.
MoviePass Reimagined: Now a Prediction Market-Style Platform
MoviePass Launches Mogul Platform: MoviePass has introduced the Mogul platform, allowing users to create movie teams and compete in contests based on box office results and critical ratings, resembling a fantasy sports experience in the film industry.
Unique Entertainment Proposition: The platform aims to redefine the moviegoing experience by leveraging audience sentiment and film performance, distinguishing itself from traditional prediction markets and sports betting.
Company's Evolution and History: After a tumultuous past, including a shutdown in 2019, MoviePass has achieved profitability in 2023 and is now backed by significant investments, marking a successful turnaround.
Industry Impact: The evolution of MoviePass and its new offerings could attract attention from major players in the film sector, potentially influencing the broader entertainment landscape.
Concerns About Kalshi in the Sports Betting Industry Might Be Exaggerated
Analyst Insights: Texas Capital Securities analyst David Bain believes that fears regarding prediction markets are exaggerated, noting that Kalshi's reported trading volume may not be as significant as it appears.
Market Outlook: Bain anticipates a strong U.S. online sports market handle of over $17 billion in September and suggests that the current stock weakness in online gaming presents a buying opportunity for investors.
Gaming companies make a final push to overturn law taxing 'phantom' earnings.
Gambling Loss Deductibility Changes: A new law set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will limit the deductibility of gambling losses to 90%, prompting concerns from lawmakers and industry groups about the potential negative impact on high-volume and professional bettors.
Phantom Income Tax Concerns: Gamblers who break even could still face taxes on "phantom" winnings, which may drive high-stakes gamblers to illegal offshore operators and discourage overall participation in legal betting, potentially harming casino and sportsbook revenues.
Legislative Efforts for Repeal: Representative Dina Titus has introduced the FAIR BET Act to restore full deductibility of gambling losses, arguing that the 90% cap forces taxpayers to pay taxes on income they do not actually retain.
Industry Support for Repeal: Major casino CEOs have collaborated with the American Gaming Association to rally support against the 90% cap, emphasizing the need to prevent it from becoming law during year-end tax negotiations.
New York City Takes Center Stage as Casino License Decision Day Approaches
Casino License Awards: New York is set to award up to three casino licenses for the NYC region on December 1, with a public meeting scheduled at the CUNY Graduate Center.
Community Review Impact: High-profile bids like Caesars Palace Times Square withdrew due to local opposition, leading to only three remaining contenders: Resorts World New York City, Bally's Bronx project, and the Metropolitan Park casino.
Projected Opening Dates: If awarded a license, Resorts World could start gambling by mid-2026, while the other two projects are not expected to open until around 2030.
Market Context: The article also touches on the performance of casino stocks and the broader gaming market, including the recovery in Macau and the launch of sports betting in Missouri.
Missouri Introduces Sports Betting Amid Growing Pressure on Remaining Holdouts
Missouri Sports Betting Launch: Missouri officially launched legal sports betting on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, supported by national brands and local partnerships.
Regulatory Framework: The legalization, driven by voter-approved Amendment 2, allows for up to 14 online licenses, with the Missouri Gaming Commission overseeing licensing and compliance.
Market Competition: Major online operators like bet365, BetMGM, and DraftKings are expected to launch, utilizing aggressive promotions to capture market share during a busy sports calendar.
Future of Sports Betting: Analysts predict that all 50 states may legalize sports betting within five years, influenced by the rise of prediction market platforms and ongoing legislative efforts in various states.
From Favorites to Longshots: Introducing the Key Contenders in Missouri's Sports Betting Competition
Launch of Legal Sports Betting: Missouri will launch legal sports betting statewide on December 1, 2024, with an expected first-year handle of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion, driven by competitive online markets and aggressive promotions from major brands.
Licensing and Market Access: The Missouri Gaming Commission will oversee up to 14 online licenses and numerous retail licenses, with major players like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM expected to lead the market, leveraging partnerships with local teams and casinos.
Key Players and Strategies: DraftKings and Circa Sports hold untethered licenses, allowing them to operate without casino partnerships, while FanDuel is anticipated to dominate market share through its national presence and innovative betting options.
Emerging Competitors: Other notable entrants include bet365, Fanatics, and Underdog Sports, each employing unique strategies such as merchandise integration and modern tech to enhance user experience in the competitive landscape.
MoviePass Reimagined: Now a Prediction Market-Style Platform
MoviePass Launches Mogul Platform: MoviePass has introduced the Mogul platform, allowing users to create movie teams and compete in contests based on box office results and critical ratings, resembling a fantasy sports experience in the film industry.
Unique Entertainment Proposition: The platform aims to redefine the moviegoing experience by leveraging audience sentiment and film performance, distinguishing itself from traditional prediction markets and sports betting.
Company's Evolution and History: After a tumultuous past, including a shutdown in 2019, MoviePass has achieved profitability in 2023 and is now backed by significant investments, marking a successful turnaround.
Industry Impact: The evolution of MoviePass and its new offerings could attract attention from major players in the film sector, potentially influencing the broader entertainment landscape.
Concerns About Kalshi in the Sports Betting Industry Might Be Exaggerated
Analyst Insights: Texas Capital Securities analyst David Bain believes that fears regarding prediction markets are exaggerated, noting that Kalshi's reported trading volume may not be as significant as it appears.
Market Outlook: Bain anticipates a strong U.S. online sports market handle of over $17 billion in September and suggests that the current stock weakness in online gaming presents a buying opportunity for investors.
