Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug
Market Signals: U.S. markets are showing mixed signals regarding a potential recession, with small-cap stocks and bond yields indicating higher risks while credit markets remain optimistic, suggesting only a 9-12% chance of recession according to JPMorgan analysis.
Nasdaq Decline: The recent drop in the Nasdaq is attributed more to quant fund positioning and tariff uncertainties rather than direct economic downturn fears, indicating that if credit markets are correct, the current market correction may be overblown.
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Fed's Goolsbee: US Is Not on Track to Achieve 2% Inflation, Rate Cuts Rely on Reduced Inflation
U.S. Consumer Prices: U.S. consumer prices rose lower than expected in January, with a 0.2% increase according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, indicating a cooling labor market.
Inflation Expectations: U.S. citizens expect lower inflation in the near term, with one-year inflation expectations standing at 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December.
Federal Reserve Insights: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggested that further rate cuts could occur if inflation trends towards the 2% target, although current inflation remains around 3%.
Market Reactions: U.S. equities ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 ETF slightly declining while other ETFs, like the Invesco QQQ Trust, saw minor gains, reflecting bearish retail sentiment around the S&P 500.
FED'S GOOLSBEE: INTEREST RATES COULD DECREASE, BUT INFLATION PROGRESS IS ESSENTIAL
- Federal Reserve's Goals: The Federal Reserve aims to manage interest rates effectively to combat inflation.
- Current Economic Outlook: While rates can still decrease, there is a need for visible progress in reducing inflation.
Supreme Court Expected to Announce Next Opinion Day on February 20 in Ongoing Trump Tariffs Case — Latest Prediction Market Odds Revealed
Supreme Court Schedule: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to return on February 20 after a four-week recess, with significant cases including President Trump's tariff policy on the agenda.
Upcoming Opinions: The Court is expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20.
Betting Markets Insights: Prediction markets indicate that bets regarding the Supreme Court's potential decisions are valued at over $9 million, with varying expectations on rulings favoring Trump.
Probability of Rulings: Data shows a 29% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs by 2028, with PolyMarket bettors slightly more optimistic at 30%.
CPI Report: January's Annual Inflation Rate Hits 2.4%, Falling Short of Wall Street Projections
Core CPI Increase: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in January, up from a 0.2% increase in December, with an annual rate of 2.5%, aligning with expectations.
Food and Energy Costs: Food costs increased by 0.2% in January, while energy costs decreased by 1.5%, indicating mixed trends in consumer prices.
Market Reactions: Following the CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.062%, while the 30-year yield declined to 4.699%, reflecting market adjustments to inflation data.
Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF was described as "bearish," with mixed performance observed in U.S. equities during the trading session.
Bessent Claims Trump Administration Aims to Mitigate Risks Rather Than Sever Ties with China: Report
Treasury Secretary's Statement: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that the Trump administration prefers to de-risk rather than decouple from China, emphasizing a dual strategy of engagement and fair trade.
Concerns Over Free Trade: Bessenet highlighted that free trade with China has been unfair, resulting in American workers being adversely affected in the process.
Experts Caution That CPI May Exceed Expectations: 'The Details Will Be Crucial'
January Inflation Trends: January inflation has historically been higher, with the Boston Fed noting that seasonal factors and frequent price resets can distort inflation data, potentially leading to elevated readings.
Market Expectations: Analysts anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January may exceed expectations, with predictions of a 0.3% increase, while annual growth rates are forecasted at 2.5%.
Investor Caution: Market experts warn investors to be aware of the potential for unexpectedly high inflation, emphasizing the importance of understanding underlying inflation trends as the CPI report approaches.
Broader Market Impact: The CPI report comes amid a broader market sell-off, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experiencing declines, reflecting investor sentiment and concerns over inflation.
Fed's Goolsbee: US Is Not on Track to Achieve 2% Inflation, Rate Cuts Rely on Reduced Inflation
U.S. Consumer Prices: U.S. consumer prices rose lower than expected in January, with a 0.2% increase according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, indicating a cooling labor market.
Inflation Expectations: U.S. citizens expect lower inflation in the near term, with one-year inflation expectations standing at 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December.
Federal Reserve Insights: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggested that further rate cuts could occur if inflation trends towards the 2% target, although current inflation remains around 3%.
Market Reactions: U.S. equities ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 ETF slightly declining while other ETFs, like the Invesco QQQ Trust, saw minor gains, reflecting bearish retail sentiment around the S&P 500.
FED'S GOOLSBEE: INTEREST RATES COULD DECREASE, BUT INFLATION PROGRESS IS ESSENTIAL
- Federal Reserve's Goals: The Federal Reserve aims to manage interest rates effectively to combat inflation.
- Current Economic Outlook: While rates can still decrease, there is a need for visible progress in reducing inflation.
Supreme Court Expected to Announce Next Opinion Day on February 20 in Ongoing Trump Tariffs Case — Latest Prediction Market Odds Revealed
Supreme Court Schedule: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to return on February 20 after a four-week recess, with significant cases including President Trump's tariff policy on the agenda.
Upcoming Opinions: The Court is expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20.
Betting Markets Insights: Prediction markets indicate that bets regarding the Supreme Court's potential decisions are valued at over $9 million, with varying expectations on rulings favoring Trump.
Probability of Rulings: Data shows a 29% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs by 2028, with PolyMarket bettors slightly more optimistic at 30%.
CPI Report: January's Annual Inflation Rate Hits 2.4%, Falling Short of Wall Street Projections
Core CPI Increase: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in January, up from a 0.2% increase in December, with an annual rate of 2.5%, aligning with expectations.
Food and Energy Costs: Food costs increased by 0.2% in January, while energy costs decreased by 1.5%, indicating mixed trends in consumer prices.
Market Reactions: Following the CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.062%, while the 30-year yield declined to 4.699%, reflecting market adjustments to inflation data.
Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF was described as "bearish," with mixed performance observed in U.S. equities during the trading session.
Bessent Claims Trump Administration Aims to Mitigate Risks Rather Than Sever Ties with China: Report
Treasury Secretary's Statement: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that the Trump administration prefers to de-risk rather than decouple from China, emphasizing a dual strategy of engagement and fair trade.
Concerns Over Free Trade: Bessenet highlighted that free trade with China has been unfair, resulting in American workers being adversely affected in the process.
Experts Caution That CPI May Exceed Expectations: 'The Details Will Be Crucial'
January Inflation Trends: January inflation has historically been higher, with the Boston Fed noting that seasonal factors and frequent price resets can distort inflation data, potentially leading to elevated readings.
Market Expectations: Analysts anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January may exceed expectations, with predictions of a 0.3% increase, while annual growth rates are forecasted at 2.5%.
Investor Caution: Market experts warn investors to be aware of the potential for unexpectedly high inflation, emphasizing the importance of understanding underlying inflation trends as the CPI report approaches.
Broader Market Impact: The CPI report comes amid a broader market sell-off, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experiencing declines, reflecting investor sentiment and concerns over inflation.
