Reasons to Keep Ovintiv Stock in Your Portfolio for the Time Being
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 09 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Ovintiv's Stock Performance: Ovintiv Inc. has seen a 5.7% increase in its share price over the past three months, outperforming its sector and sub-industry, indicating strong relative strength and investor interest.
Operational Efficiency and Growth: The company generated $392 million in free cash flow in Q2 2025 and raised its production outlook while reducing capital expenditures, showcasing improved productivity and financial discipline.
Challenges Facing Ovintiv: Despite its strong performance, Ovintiv faces challenges such as a high debt load of $5.3 billion, execution risks related to the integration of Montney assets, and rising transportation costs that could impact margins.
Future Outlook and Recommendations: Analysts project a decline in earnings and revenue for 2025, suggesting a hold stance on OVV stock, making it suitable for investors seeking stability rather than aggressive accumulation.
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Analyst Views on AM
Wall Street analysts forecast AM stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 20.910
Low
19.00
Averages
19.67
High
20.00
Current: 20.910
Low
19.00
Averages
19.67
High
20.00
About AM
Antero Midstream Corporation is a midstream energy company. The Company owns, operates and develops midstream gathering, compression, processing and fractionation assets located in the Appalachian Basin, as well as integrated water assets that primarily service Antero Resources Corporation’s (Antero Resources) properties. The Company’s assets consist of gathering systems and compression facilities, water handling and blending facilities and interests in processing and fractionation plants. The Company’s segments include gathering and processing and water handling. The gathering and processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collect and process production from Antero Resources’ wells in the Appalachian Basin, as well as equity in earnings from its investments in the Joint Venture and Stonewall. The water handling segment includes two independent systems that deliver water from sources and other fluid handling services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Strong Financial Performance: EBITDA grew 7% year-over-year in 2025, reaching $285 million, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth since the 2014 IPO, demonstrating the company's success in capital-efficient organic growth and throughput enhancement.
- Significant Increase in Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow after dividends reached $325 million in 2025, a 30% increase, allowing the company to reduce leverage to 2.7x and repurchase approximately $48 million in shares, thereby enhancing financial stability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with free cash flow projected at $360 million, an 11% increase, while maintaining a balanced return of capital program to ensure a strong balance sheet within a low 3x leverage range.
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- Sustained EBITDA Growth: In 2025, Antero Midstream achieved a 7% EBITDA growth, marking the eleventh consecutive year of growth since its 2014 IPO, while free cash flow after dividends increased by 30%, reflecting improved capital efficiency.
- 2026 Capital Budget: The company plans to invest between $190 million and $220 million in 2026, covering routine and growth-oriented projects, particularly expenditures related to integrating acquired assets, which are expected to enhance downstream deliverability in the dry gas segment.
- Future Growth Expectations: Antero Midstream forecasts EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase, with a planned $360 million in free cash flow after dividends, indicating the company's ability to sustain shareholder returns while maintaining low leverage.
See More
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- Cash Flow Growth: The adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $192 million, showing a decline from 2024, but the company anticipates achieving $755 to $815 million in free cash flow for 2026, reflecting future capital efficiency and financial health.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The 2026 capital budget is projected to be between $190 million and $220 million, with approximately $145 million allocated for gathering and compression infrastructure, aimed at enhancing downstream deliverability of dry gas assets and strengthening market competitiveness.
- Share Repurchase Strategy: In Q4 2025, Antero Midstream repurchased 2.7 million shares for $48 million, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns, while as of December 31, 2025, the remaining repurchase capacity stood at $336 million, boosting market confidence.
See More
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- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $291.82 million, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's ongoing growth potential in the natural gas sector despite market fluctuations.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Antero Midstream has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while surpassing revenue estimates 63% of the time, indicating challenges in managing market expectations.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and one downward revision, suggesting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
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- S&P Global Dividend Increase: The Board of Directors of S&P Global approved a 1.0% increase in the quarterly cash dividend from $0.96 to $0.97 per share, reflecting confidence in the upcoming spin-off of its Mobility division, maintaining a dividend payment record since 1937.
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