Parsons Shares Plummet Following FAA Mega Upgrade Loss to Peraton
Parsons Corporation's Stock Decline: Shares of Parsons Corporation fell 21.32% after Peraton was selected to lead the FAA's air traffic control modernization, diminishing expectations for Parsons' involvement in the project.
Peraton's Role and Capabilities: Peraton aims to enhance air traffic control systems by leveraging its expertise in AI, secure communications, and large-scale federal missions, positioning itself as a "pure-play" systems integrator.
Parsons' Response and Commitment: Despite the setback, Parsons emphasized its long-standing support for the FAA and expressed readiness to assist in air traffic control modernization efforts through existing contracts and potential partnerships.
New Contract Opportunity: Parsons secured a position on the DTRA's Cooperative Threat Reduction Integration Contract IV, which could lead to future opportunities in WMD-related task orders, although it does not guarantee revenue.
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- Defense Budget Increase: Congress has passed an $839 billion defense spending bill, marking the Pentagon's first full-year appropriation since fiscal 2024, with $9.8 billion specifically allocated for the development of autonomous and unmanned systems, highlighting a commitment to modern military technology.
- AI Market Outlook: The global AI market in defense and aerospace is projected to grow from $4.2 billion in 2026 to $42.8 billion by 2036, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.4%, indicating that defense budgets are driving rapid advancements in related technologies.
- Accelerated Corporate Investment: The DoD's IT budget for fiscal 2026 reached $66 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from 2025, with every service branch boosting its AI allocations, and the Navy's AI spending alone rising by 22.7% year-over-year, reflecting a strong demand for intelligent technologies.
- Strategic Partnership Opportunities: VisionWave Holdings' subsidiary Solar Drone held meetings in Italy with potential customers in the Middle East to discuss drone cleaning solutions, indicating the company's pursuit of new business opportunities in the rapidly growing solar market in the region.
- Defense Budget Increase: The U.S. Congress has passed an $839 billion defense spending bill, marking the Pentagon's first full-year appropriation since fiscal 2024, with $9.8 billion allocated specifically for the development of autonomous and unmanned systems, which is expected to drive investment and market growth for related companies.
- AI Market Outlook: The global AI market in defense and aerospace is projected to grow from $4.2 billion in 2026 to $42.8 billion by 2036, at a compound annual growth rate of 26.4%, indicating a rapid acceleration in demand for autonomous platforms and intelligent command systems, attracting significant institutional capital.
- Howmet's Strong Performance: Howmet Aerospace reported $2.2 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, a 15% year-over-year increase, with full-year revenue reaching a record $8.3 billion and adjusted EPS rising 40% to $3.77, reflecting robust growth in commercial and defense aerospace sectors.
- Curtiss-Wright Contract Win: Curtiss-Wright has been selected by Boeing to supply mission computers for the U.S. Air Force's C-17 Globemaster III, with an estimated contract value exceeding $400 million, enhancing the operational life of this critical military platform and reinforcing Curtiss-Wright's pivotal role in defense modernization.
- Earnings Miss: Parsons' Q4 report revealed adjusted earnings per share of $0.75 and sales of $1.6 billion, both falling short of Wall Street expectations, resulting in a 14.4% drop in stock price, indicating investor disappointment with the company's performance.
- Revenue Decline: Overall revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year, with organic revenue down 10%, although growth was noted in space and defense services, transportation, and critical infrastructure protection; however, a decline in sales volume from a key confidential contract negatively impacted overall results.
- Cautious Outlook: Parsons anticipates a return to growth in 2026, targeting sales between $6.5 billion and $6.8 billion, which would represent a 4.5% annual revenue increase if the midpoint is achieved, yet investors express concerns over potential adverse effects from shifts in confidential contracts.
- Market Reaction: Following the earnings report, Parsons experienced significant stock volatility, with a current market cap of $7.5 billion and a trading volume of 4.7 million shares, reflecting heightened investor scrutiny and anxiety regarding the company's future prospects.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Parsons Corporation reported a 12% total revenue growth and an 8% organic revenue growth in Q4 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to a record 9.6%, indicating strong market demand and effective business execution.
- Outstanding Cash Flow Performance: The company achieved a 100% free cash flow conversion for fiscal year 2025, exceeding the high end of its cash flow guidance range, reflecting a healthy financial position that supports future investments and acquisitions.
- Strategic Contract Wins: In Q4, Parsons secured several key contracts, including a $392 million ten-year federal customer contract, showcasing its strong competitiveness in critical infrastructure and defense sectors, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Acquisitions and Expansion: The company acquired Applied Sciences Consulting and Altamira Technologies, enhancing its capabilities in national security and intelligence, indicating Parsons' strategic decisions in technology and market expansion aimed at boosting long-term growth potential.
- Revenue Decline: Parsons Corporation's fourth-quarter revenue fell 8% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, missing Wall Street's expectation of $1.63 billion, indicating challenges in the government services and infrastructure sectors.
- Profitability Fluctuations: Although net income slightly increased to $56 million with earnings per share at $0.51, adjusted earnings per share dropped to $0.75, below the market estimate of $0.79, reflecting pressure on profitability.
- Cash Flow and Order Status: Operating cash flow surged 32% to $168 million, yet net bookings decreased by 10% to $1.5 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 0.9 times, signaling signs of weakening market demand.
- Future Outlook: Parsons forecasts revenue between $6.5 billion and $6.8 billion for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $615 million to $675 million, indicating optimism about future contract opportunities despite uncertainties.
- Stock Performance: Parson shares experienced a significant decline of 9.2% following the release of their Q4 results.
- Market Reaction: The drop in share price indicates a negative market reaction to the company's quarterly performance.







