Oscar Health Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy OSCR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: Oscar Health reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$1.24, missing expectations by $0.38, indicating challenges in profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Weak Revenue Growth: Despite a 17.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.81 billion, the figure fell short of market expectations by $310 million, reflecting competitive pressures that may impact future market share.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: Oscar Health projects total revenue for 2026 between $18.7 billion and $19.0 billion, significantly above the $12.76 billion consensus, demonstrating confidence in future growth, though feasibility remains a concern.
- Medical Loss Ratio Forecast: The company anticipates a medical loss ratio between 82.4% and 83.4%, indicating challenges in cost control that could affect overall profitability and long-term investor confidence.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy OSCR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on OSCR
Wall Street analysts forecast OSCR stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.710
Low
11.00
Averages
15.75
High
25.00
Current: 13.710
Low
11.00
Averages
15.75
High
25.00
About OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc. is a healthcare technology company built around a full stack technology platform. The Company's offerings include its insurance business and +Oscar Platform. Its health plans are offered in the individual market. The individual market primarily consists of policies purchased by individuals and families through health insurance marketplaces, established by the ACA and operated by the federal government, as well as other marketplaces operated by individual states. Individuals and families may also purchase policies in the individual market off-exchange. Employees whose employers have chosen to offer an Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangement (ICHRA) are also able to purchase its health plans. It offers health plans in the individual market under the five metal plan categories defined by the ACA: Catastrophic, Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum. Through the +Oscar platform, the Company deploys its technology to help others throughout the healthcare system.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Oscar Health Stock Gains: Key Insights
- Earnings Report: Oscar Health reported a quarterly loss of $1.24 per share, which was wider than the expected $0.89 loss and a significant decline from last year's $0.62 loss; however, revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $2.81 billion, albeit below the consensus of $3.12 billion.
- Guidance Outlook: The company provided a revenue guidance for 2026 of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $12.565 billion, indicating strong growth potential, while expecting a medical loss ratio between 82.4% and 83.4% and operating earnings between $250 million and $450 million.
- Upgrade Impact: Raymond James anticipates Oscar will achieve approximately 2% EBIT margin in 2026, increasing to around 4% in 2027 due to improvements in medical loss ratio and operational efficiencies, with much of the uncertainty regarding ACA subsidies already reflected in the stock price.
- Stock Movement: As of Thursday, Oscar Health shares rose by 0.96% to $13.73, reflecting market confidence in the company's growth potential despite the disappointing short-term earnings report, while the long-term EPS target remains at $2.25, indicating investor optimism about future performance.
See More
Major Wall Street Rating Updates
- Apple Siri Upgrade Delay: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform, suggesting that reports of delays in Siri upgrades are overstated, with expectations for a multi-phase rollout of AI features this year, emphasizing the importance of privacy protection and seamless integration.
- Shopify Attractiveness Upgrade: TD Cowen upgrades Shopify from hold to buy, citing its strong quarterly performance and continued growth momentum as compelling reasons for investors to consider the stock, especially given its recent price decline.
- Fastly's Stellar Performance: William Blair upgrades Fastly from market perform to outperform following impressive earnings, driven by a significant increase in AI traffic contributions, indicating substantial growth potential in this emerging sector.
- MercadoLibre's Improved Competitive Landscape: JPMorgan upgrades MercadoLibre from neutral to overweight, noting a reduction in competitive pressures in the Latin American online marketplace, with expectations for sustained growth in the coming quarters.
See More
Analysis of Oscar Health's Recent Earnings Report
- Earnings Overview: Oscar Health's recent earnings report indicates a stock price of OSCR+1.42% on February 10, 2026, reflecting a neutral market response to its financial performance.
- Video Content: The video provides a detailed analysis of key financial metrics and insights, aimed at helping investors better understand the company's financial health and future outlook.
- Subscription Recommendation: The video encourages viewers to subscribe to the channel for more financial analyses on Oscar Health and other companies, indicating the company's strategy to enhance its market influence through investor education.
- Special Offer Link: A special offer link is provided in the video, potentially attracting viewers to engage or invest, showcasing the company's proactive approach in customer and investor engagement.
See More
Oscar Health Reports Optimistic Guidance Boosting Stock
- Earnings Highlights: Oscar Health reported total revenue of $2.8 billion for Q4 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of analysts' expectations of $3.1 billion, indicating potential for revenue growth.
- Deepening Net Loss: The company's net loss under GAAP widened to nearly $353 million ($1.24 per share), compared to a loss of approximately $154 million in Q4 2024, reflecting challenges in profitability.
- Significant Membership Growth: By the end of the quarter, Oscar's total membership surpassed 2 million, up from under 1.7 million a year ago, demonstrating success in market penetration and customer attraction.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Oscar projects total revenue between $18.7 billion and $19 billion for 2026, with operational earnings expected to range from $250 million to $450 million, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $12.8 billion, showcasing management's confidence in future growth.
See More
Oscar Health Sets 2026 Revenue Outlook Above Consensus
- 2026 Revenue Outlook: Oscar Health projects its 2026 revenue to be between $18.7 billion and $19 billion, exceeding the consensus of $12.8 billion, reflecting strong confidence in future growth driven by record membership and AI efficiencies.
- 2025 Financial Performance: Despite achieving $11.7 billion in revenue for 2025, representing an approximately 28% year-over-year growth, the company reported a GAAP loss of $1.24 per share, missing consensus by $310 million, highlighting challenges in the individual market reset.
- Improvement in Medical Loss Ratio: Oscar anticipates an improvement in its medical loss ratio to 82.4%-83.4% for 2026, indicating a 450-basis point enhancement year-over-year, showcasing the company's efforts in controlling medical costs and enhancing operational efficiency.
- Churn Risk: With the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, Oscar expects elevated churn rates in its Obamacare plans for 2026, despite implementing measures to mitigate this risk, underscoring the complexities of the market environment.
See More
Oscar Health Reports Q4 Revenue Miss, Sees Growth Ahead
- Revenue Shortfall: Oscar Health reported fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $2.81 billion, an increase from $2.39 billion year-over-year, yet it fell short of the consensus estimate of $3.12 billion, indicating challenges in revenue growth.
- Rising Medical Loss Ratio: The medical loss ratio for the quarter was 95.4%, up from 88.1% a year ago, primarily driven by increased market morbidity and higher utilization, which led to an increase in net risk adjustment transfer accrual, negatively impacting profitability.
- Membership Growth: Total membership surged from 1.68 million to 2.04 million, reflecting the successful appeal of new affordable products and AI features, positioning the company for improved financial performance in the future.
- Financing Enhancement: Last week, Oscar announced a $475 million three-year revolving credit facility, with the CFO noting that the transaction was well-supported by top-tier banks, further optimizing the capital structure and providing flexibility for long-term growth.
See More
Oscar Health Stock Gains: Key Insights
- Earnings Report: Oscar Health reported a quarterly loss of $1.24 per share, which was wider than the expected $0.89 loss and a significant decline from last year's $0.62 loss; however, revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $2.81 billion, albeit below the consensus of $3.12 billion.
- Guidance Outlook: The company provided a revenue guidance for 2026 of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $12.565 billion, indicating strong growth potential, while expecting a medical loss ratio between 82.4% and 83.4% and operating earnings between $250 million and $450 million.
- Upgrade Impact: Raymond James anticipates Oscar will achieve approximately 2% EBIT margin in 2026, increasing to around 4% in 2027 due to improvements in medical loss ratio and operational efficiencies, with much of the uncertainty regarding ACA subsidies already reflected in the stock price.
- Stock Movement: As of Thursday, Oscar Health shares rose by 0.96% to $13.73, reflecting market confidence in the company's growth potential despite the disappointing short-term earnings report, while the long-term EPS target remains at $2.25, indicating investor optimism about future performance.
See More
Major Wall Street Rating Updates
- Apple Siri Upgrade Delay: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform, suggesting that reports of delays in Siri upgrades are overstated, with expectations for a multi-phase rollout of AI features this year, emphasizing the importance of privacy protection and seamless integration.
- Shopify Attractiveness Upgrade: TD Cowen upgrades Shopify from hold to buy, citing its strong quarterly performance and continued growth momentum as compelling reasons for investors to consider the stock, especially given its recent price decline.
- Fastly's Stellar Performance: William Blair upgrades Fastly from market perform to outperform following impressive earnings, driven by a significant increase in AI traffic contributions, indicating substantial growth potential in this emerging sector.
- MercadoLibre's Improved Competitive Landscape: JPMorgan upgrades MercadoLibre from neutral to overweight, noting a reduction in competitive pressures in the Latin American online marketplace, with expectations for sustained growth in the coming quarters.
See More
Analysis of Oscar Health's Recent Earnings Report
- Earnings Overview: Oscar Health's recent earnings report indicates a stock price of OSCR+1.42% on February 10, 2026, reflecting a neutral market response to its financial performance.
- Video Content: The video provides a detailed analysis of key financial metrics and insights, aimed at helping investors better understand the company's financial health and future outlook.
- Subscription Recommendation: The video encourages viewers to subscribe to the channel for more financial analyses on Oscar Health and other companies, indicating the company's strategy to enhance its market influence through investor education.
- Special Offer Link: A special offer link is provided in the video, potentially attracting viewers to engage or invest, showcasing the company's proactive approach in customer and investor engagement.
See More
Oscar Health Reports Optimistic Guidance Boosting Stock
- Earnings Highlights: Oscar Health reported total revenue of $2.8 billion for Q4 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of analysts' expectations of $3.1 billion, indicating potential for revenue growth.
- Deepening Net Loss: The company's net loss under GAAP widened to nearly $353 million ($1.24 per share), compared to a loss of approximately $154 million in Q4 2024, reflecting challenges in profitability.
- Significant Membership Growth: By the end of the quarter, Oscar's total membership surpassed 2 million, up from under 1.7 million a year ago, demonstrating success in market penetration and customer attraction.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Oscar projects total revenue between $18.7 billion and $19 billion for 2026, with operational earnings expected to range from $250 million to $450 million, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $12.8 billion, showcasing management's confidence in future growth.
See More
Oscar Health Sets 2026 Revenue Outlook Above Consensus
- 2026 Revenue Outlook: Oscar Health projects its 2026 revenue to be between $18.7 billion and $19 billion, exceeding the consensus of $12.8 billion, reflecting strong confidence in future growth driven by record membership and AI efficiencies.
- 2025 Financial Performance: Despite achieving $11.7 billion in revenue for 2025, representing an approximately 28% year-over-year growth, the company reported a GAAP loss of $1.24 per share, missing consensus by $310 million, highlighting challenges in the individual market reset.
- Improvement in Medical Loss Ratio: Oscar anticipates an improvement in its medical loss ratio to 82.4%-83.4% for 2026, indicating a 450-basis point enhancement year-over-year, showcasing the company's efforts in controlling medical costs and enhancing operational efficiency.
- Churn Risk: With the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, Oscar expects elevated churn rates in its Obamacare plans for 2026, despite implementing measures to mitigate this risk, underscoring the complexities of the market environment.
See More
Oscar Health Reports Q4 Revenue Miss, Sees Growth Ahead
- Revenue Shortfall: Oscar Health reported fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $2.81 billion, an increase from $2.39 billion year-over-year, yet it fell short of the consensus estimate of $3.12 billion, indicating challenges in revenue growth.
- Rising Medical Loss Ratio: The medical loss ratio for the quarter was 95.4%, up from 88.1% a year ago, primarily driven by increased market morbidity and higher utilization, which led to an increase in net risk adjustment transfer accrual, negatively impacting profitability.
- Membership Growth: Total membership surged from 1.68 million to 2.04 million, reflecting the successful appeal of new affordable products and AI features, positioning the company for improved financial performance in the future.
- Financing Enhancement: Last week, Oscar announced a $475 million three-year revolving credit facility, with the CFO noting that the transaction was well-supported by top-tier banks, further optimizing the capital structure and providing flexibility for long-term growth.
See More
