Modi's Momentum: Achieving Balance in India's Ideal Economic Conditions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 14 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HDB?
Source: Marketbeat
Investment Landscape in 2026: Investors entering 2026 are navigating a complex landscape marked by political uncertainty and policy shifts, leading to significant volatility in U.S. equities. In contrast, India is emerging as a primary destination for capital seeking stability and economic growth.
India's Economic Metrics: India's economic environment is characterized by a projected GDP growth of approximately 6.7% and a low inflation rate of 1.33%, which is significantly below the Reserve Bank of India's target. This stability supports purchasing power and allows businesses to maintain healthy profit margins.
HDFC Bank's Growth and Market Position: HDFC Bank has successfully pivoted back to aggressive growth following its merger, reporting a 13% year-over-year increase in loan growth and an 11.5% rise in deposits. This positions the bank favorably in a low-rate environment, enhancing its lending capabilities.
Strategic Diversification Opportunities: The combination of the broad INDA ETF and HDFC Bank's revitalized growth presents a compelling opportunity for investors looking to diversify away from U.S. political risks, with India offering a stable growth narrative backed by strong economic fundamentals.
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Analyst Views on HDB
About HDB
HDFC Bank Limited (the Bank) is a private bank. The Bank, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in providing a range of banking and financial services, including retail banking, wholesale banking, treasury operations, insurance, asset management, stockbroking and other financial services businesses. Its segment includes treasury, retail banking, wholesale banking, and other banking operations. The treasury segment consists of net interest earnings from the Bank’s investment portfolio, money market borrowing and lending, and gains or losses on investment operations. The retail banking segment consists of digital banking and other retail banking. The wholesale banking segment provides loans, non-fund facilities and transaction services to corporates, emerging corporates, public sector units, government bodies, and others. The other banking operations segment includes parabanking activities such as credit cards, debit cards, third-party product distribution, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Credit Expansion Context: While the bank reported healthy credit expansion leveraging its enhanced distribution network and customer base, the lagging deposit growth may force it to rely on higher-cost alternative funding sources, which could compress profit margins.
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See More
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- Deposit-Loan Growth Gap: Following its merger with HDFC Limited, HDFC Bank has experienced significant loan growth, yet deposit growth has lagged, leading to an expanding gap that impacts the bank's funding sources and profitability.
- Credit Expansion Dynamics: While HDFC Bank has reported healthy credit expansion leveraging its enhanced distribution network and customer base post-merger, the lagging deposit growth may force the bank to rely on higher-cost alternative funding sources.
- Market Reaction: After the release of the latest business update, HDFC Bank's shares fell over 5%, underperforming both the Nifty 50 index and banking sector benchmarks, indicating increased market focus on liquidity metrics.
- Investor Attention: Trading volumes surged as institutional investors adjusted their portfolios, with large block deals recorded, reflecting growing concerns about the bank's deposit mobilization challenges.
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- Emerging Market Potential: Emerging market stocks are expected to return 12.8% annually, primarily supported by robust earnings growth in China and India, highlighting the significance and appeal of these markets in the global economy.
- Vanguard ETF Advantages: The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF boasts an expense ratio of just 0.06%, significantly lower than the average 0.81% for similar funds, providing investors with a cost-effective avenue for European stock exposure, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- US vs. European Stocks: While US stocks outperformed European stocks over the past decade, Goldman believes that due to high valuations in the US market, European stocks may surpass them in the next decade, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies.
See More
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- Tariff Reductions: Trump announced a U.S.-India trade agreement that eliminates trade barriers for India and reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, significantly enhancing trade relations between the two nations.
- Oil Procurement Agreement: The deal ends the 25% punitive tariff imposed due to India's purchases of Russian oil, with Trump stating that India will cease buying Russian oil and increase imports from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela.
- India's Purchasing Commitment: Prime Minister Modi committed to purchasing over $500 billion worth of American products across energy, technology, agriculture, and coal sectors, indicating India's strong interest in U.S. markets and collaboration.
- Improvement in Trade Relations: This agreement is expected to alleviate trade tensions caused by U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, while India is also exploring a free trade deal with the EU to further diversify its international trade relationships.
See More
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- Deposit-Loan Growth Discrepancy: Following its merger with HDFC Limited, HDFC Bank has experienced significant loan growth, yet deposit growth has lagged, leading to a widening gap that impacts the bank's funding sources and profitability.
- Credit Expansion Context: While the bank reported healthy credit expansion leveraging its enhanced distribution network and customer base, the lagging deposit growth may force it to rely on higher-cost alternative funding sources, which could compress profit margins.
- Market Reaction: Following the release of the latest business update, HDFC Bank's shares fell over 5%, indicating market concern regarding liquidity metrics, especially as deposit growth failed to accelerate.
- Investor Focus: The surge in trading volumes as institutional investors adjusted their portfolios highlights the market's increasing focus on HDFC Bank's deposit mobilization challenges, which could have broader implications for the stability of the overall banking system.
See More
Investigation into HDFC Bank's Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancy
- Deposit-Loan Growth Gap: Following its merger with HDFC Limited, HDFC Bank has experienced significant loan growth, yet deposit growth has lagged, leading to an expanding gap that impacts the bank's funding sources and profitability.
- Credit Expansion Dynamics: While HDFC Bank has reported healthy credit expansion leveraging its enhanced distribution network and customer base post-merger, the lagging deposit growth may force the bank to rely on higher-cost alternative funding sources.
- Market Reaction: After the release of the latest business update, HDFC Bank's shares fell over 5%, underperforming both the Nifty 50 index and banking sector benchmarks, indicating increased market focus on liquidity metrics.
- Investor Attention: Trading volumes surged as institutional investors adjusted their portfolios, with large block deals recorded, reflecting growing concerns about the bank's deposit mobilization challenges.
See More
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- Asset Allocation Shift: This transaction reduced Axalta's representation to 0% of Trinity's 13F AUM, while its top five holdings include Taiwan Semiconductor valued at $293.8 million, or 18.5% of AUM, reflecting a preference for companies with better growth potential.
- Poor Market Performance: As of January 21, 2026, Axalta's share price stood at $33.47, down 9.5% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 23.2 percentage points, highlighting sluggish growth in the coatings sector.
- Investor Strategy: Trinity sold a small position representing about 1.5% of its assets in Q3, possibly for tax-loss harvesting or due to diminished confidence in Axalta's growth, while simultaneously increasing investments in other major holdings like Taiwan Semiconductor, indicating a shift towards companies with higher growth potential.
See More
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