Microsoft's Stock Decline: Should Investors Consider Buying Now?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.3 billion, with its cloud business shining as Azure revenue surged by 39%, indicating robust market demand despite the stock's decline.
- Surging Capital Expenditures: The company's capital expenditures reached $37.5 billion during this period, up nearly 66% year-over-year; while spending is high, Azure's growth appears to be stabilizing, with third-quarter guidance projecting a growth rate of 37% to 38%.
- Market Expectations Impact: Despite Microsoft's solid performance, the stock has continued to decline as the market's expectation for accelerating growth means that any performance perceived as
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- User Growth Data: Microsoft revealed that Copilot reached 15 million paying users in its latest earnings call, reflecting a 160% year-over-year growth, although this figure appears small compared to its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, indicating potential market demand.
- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
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- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
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- Analyst Consensus: A significant 92% of Wall Street analysts rate Amazon stock as a buy, with a median price target of $285 per share, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth despite the current price of $205.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, which will likely further deplete free cash flow but is deemed essential for maintaining market leadership.
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- Microsoft's Value Rebound: Microsoft's operating profit valuation is nearing its lowest level outside of the 2023 sell-off, and despite recent weakness, its strong growth in the latest earnings report highlights a rare buying opportunity for investors.
- Trade Desk's Slowing Growth: The Trade Desk reported an 18% year-over-year growth in Q3, facing challenges due to reduced political ad spending; however, with a projected 17% revenue growth for 2026, its current low valuation presents a compelling entry point for investors.
- Nvidia's Undervalued Stock: Nvidia trades at a mere 24 times forward earnings, despite a projected 64% growth in FY 2027, and with global data center capital expenditures potentially reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, investors should seize this undervalued opportunity.
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See More
Microsoft's Copilot User Growth and Market Potential
- User Growth Data: Microsoft revealed that Copilot reached 15 million paying users in its latest earnings call, reflecting a 160% year-over-year growth, although this figure appears small compared to its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, indicating potential market demand.
- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
See More
Microsoft Faces Intensifying Competition in Cloud Computing
- Cloud Competition: Microsoft faces fierce competition in the cloud computing sector from Amazon and Alphabet, with Azure's revenue growth of 39% lagging behind Google Cloud's 48%, indicating market share pressures.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
See More
Harvard Management Co. Establishes New Position in Ethereum ETF
- New Position Established: Harvard Management Co. has established a new position in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF by acquiring 3,870,900 shares, with an estimated transaction value of $86.82 million, indicating a sustained interest in the digital asset market.
- Asset Allocation Proportion: This investment represents 4.18% of Harvard Management's reportable U.S. equity assets as of December 31, 2025, highlighting its significance within a diversified investment portfolio.
- ETF Performance Analysis: As of February 14, 2026, the Ethereum ETF's share price stands at $15.44, reflecting a 23.90% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 35%, which indicates market caution towards this asset.
- Long-term Investment Strategy: Harvard's investment portfolio includes 19 positions with total reportable assets of $2.08 billion, demonstrating a strategic focus on diversification and long-term growth potential.
See More
Harvard Management Acquires ETHA Shares
- Significant Investment: Harvard Management recently acquired 3.87 million shares of the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA), with an estimated transaction value of $86.82 million, indicating its ongoing commitment to the digital asset market.
- Diversified Asset Allocation: This investment represents 4.18% of Harvard Management's 13F reportable assets, highlighting its focus on cryptocurrency, particularly the potential of Ethereum within a diversified investment portfolio.
- Market Performance Comparison: Despite ETHA's 41.32% decline since inception, while the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has risen approximately 40% since January 2024, Harvard Management remains optimistic about the long-term outlook of the crypto market, viewing ETHA as a viable investment option.
- Portfolio Management Expertise: Harvard's investment portfolio holds only 19 assets across various sectors, including commodities, real estate, technology, and cryptocurrencies, demonstrating its professional capabilities in risk management and yield optimization.
See More
Amazon Stock Presents Strong Buying Opportunity Amidst Short-Term Concerns
- Stock Price Decline: Amazon's stock has dropped approximately 11% year-to-date, with a current P/E ratio of 28, the lowest in a decade, presenting a buying opportunity for investors at a cheaper valuation, with a potential 39% return expected.
- Analyst Consensus: A significant 92% of Wall Street analysts rate Amazon stock as a buy, with a median price target of $285 per share, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth despite the current price of $205.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, which will likely further deplete free cash flow but is deemed essential for maintaining market leadership.
- AWS Growth Potential: While AWS's net sales grew by 20%, it faces competition from Microsoft and Alphabet; however, its backlog of $244 billion, up 40% year-over-year, indicates strong future earnings potential.
See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Market Weakness
- Microsoft's Value Rebound: Microsoft's operating profit valuation is nearing its lowest level outside of the 2023 sell-off, and despite recent weakness, its strong growth in the latest earnings report highlights a rare buying opportunity for investors.
- Trade Desk's Slowing Growth: The Trade Desk reported an 18% year-over-year growth in Q3, facing challenges due to reduced political ad spending; however, with a projected 17% revenue growth for 2026, its current low valuation presents a compelling entry point for investors.
- Nvidia's Undervalued Stock: Nvidia trades at a mere 24 times forward earnings, despite a projected 64% growth in FY 2027, and with global data center capital expenditures potentially reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, investors should seize this undervalued opportunity.
- Sustained AI Spending Growth: As AI spending is expected to continue increasing over the next few years, Nvidia stands out as a must-buy stock in the current market environment, making it essential for investors not to miss this opportunity.
See More
