Microsoft Shares Drop Following Analyst Downgrade
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Stock Price Decline: Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell nearly 5% on Thursday, closing at $393.58 with a market cap of $3.1 trillion, reflecting heightened negative sentiment towards software stocks.
- Analyst Rating Change: Stifel's analyst Brad Reback downgraded Microsoft's rating from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and significantly reduced the price target from $540 to $392, indicating a bearish outlook on the company's future financial performance.
- Increased Capex Forecast: Reback raised his forecast for Microsoft's capital expenditures to $200 billion for fiscal 2027, well above the $160 billion average expected by analysts, which could pressure the company's profitability.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The sell-off of Microsoft is largely driven by panic and herd behavior, yet despite short-term challenges, the company maintains diverse revenue streams, suggesting a positive long-term growth outlook.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
See More
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- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
See More
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- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, which will likely further deplete free cash flow but is deemed essential for maintaining market leadership.
- AWS Growth Potential: While AWS's net sales grew by 20%, it faces competition from Microsoft and Alphabet; however, its backlog of $244 billion, up 40% year-over-year, indicates strong future earnings potential.
See More
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- Microsoft's Value Rebound: Microsoft's operating profit valuation is nearing its lowest level outside of the 2023 sell-off, and despite recent weakness, its strong growth in the latest earnings report highlights a rare buying opportunity for investors.
- Trade Desk's Slowing Growth: The Trade Desk reported an 18% year-over-year growth in Q3, facing challenges due to reduced political ad spending; however, with a projected 17% revenue growth for 2026, its current low valuation presents a compelling entry point for investors.
- Nvidia's Undervalued Stock: Nvidia trades at a mere 24 times forward earnings, despite a projected 64% growth in FY 2027, and with global data center capital expenditures potentially reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, investors should seize this undervalued opportunity.
- Sustained AI Spending Growth: As AI spending is expected to continue increasing over the next few years, Nvidia stands out as a must-buy stock in the current market environment, making it essential for investors not to miss this opportunity.
See More
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- Microsoft Valuation Drop: Microsoft's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to its lowest level outside of the 2023 sell-off, while still maintaining a dominant industry position, and recent earnings reports indicate growth potential, making this a rare buying opportunity for investors.
- Ad Platform Challenges: The Trade Desk reported an 18% year-over-year growth in Q3, but faced headwinds from reduced political ad spending, with a projected 17% revenue growth for 2026, indicating its long-term growth potential remains intact.
- Nvidia Investment Opportunity: Nvidia's stock is currently trading at a mere 24 times forward earnings, despite being projected to grow at a 64% pace in FY 2027, highlighting its investment value amid ongoing increases in AI spending.
- Market Rebound Potential: The recent weakness in the stock market has opened up buying opportunities for investors, particularly in stocks like Microsoft, The Trade Desk, and Nvidia, which could yield outsized returns in the future, prompting investors to act swiftly to capitalize on these opportunities.
See More
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- Microsoft Valuation Drop: Microsoft's price-to-earnings ratio has significantly decreased in recent months due to general weakness in the tech sector, now nearing its lowest level outside of the 2023 sell-off, providing a rare buying opportunity for investors despite its continued dominance in the industry.
- Ad Platform Challenges: The Trade Desk reported an 18% year-over-year growth in Q3, but faced headwinds from reduced political ad spending, with Wall Street projecting a 17% revenue growth for 2026; its current price-to-earnings ratio of just 13 times indicates an exceptional value for investors.
- Nvidia's Investment Opportunity: Nvidia's stock trades at a mere 24 times forward earnings, despite a projected 64% growth in FY 2027, and with global data center capital expenditures expected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, this presents a compelling buying opportunity for investors.
- AI Spending Growth Outlook: With AI spending expected to continue rising over the next few years, Nvidia is viewed as an ideal investment choice; although it did not make the Motley Fool's top ten stock list, its potential returns remain a significant draw for investors.
See More
