M Stanley Predicts HKEX Will Report 2% Lower Earnings Last Quarter; Positive Outlook Remains
Morgan Stanley's Earnings Prediction: Morgan Stanley forecasts a decline in HKEX's revenue and earnings for 4Q25, estimating a 2% year-over-year decrease due to cost increases and higher tax rates.
Market Activity Outlook: The report suggests that active market conditions in January will positively influence trends for the year, with expectations of improved performance in the second half of 2026 as PPI pressures ease.
Broker Rating and Target Price: Despite the anticipated decline, Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for HKEX, setting a target price of HKD508.
Short Selling Data: As of February 12, 2026, HKEX has reported significant short selling activity amounting to $90.70 million, with a short selling ratio of 14.136%.
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<Midday Update> HSI Ends Midday at 26,705, Gaining 138 Points; HSTI Reaches 5,367, Up 7 Points; ZIJIN MINING Surges Over 4%; HK & CHINA GAS, CK ASSET, WH GROUP, TIANGONG INT'L, and CONCH VENTURE Achieve New Record Highs
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 138 points (0.5%) to 26,705, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also saw slight gains.
Active Heavyweights: Notable movements included HKEX (+0.9%), PING AN (+0.4%), and TENCENT (+0.2%), while XIAOMI, BABA, and MEITUAN experienced minor declines.
Significant Movers: ZIJIN MINING surged by 4.7%, CHINAHONGQIAO increased by 3.9%, and CNOOC rose by 3.7%, while YUM CHINA fell by 4.6%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, with YUM CHINA at 47.6% and MEITUAN at 25.8%, indicating significant market speculation.
G Sachs: HKEX (00388.HK) Lagging Behind HSI Year-to-Date; Rating Maintained at Buy
HKEX Share Performance: The share price of HKEX (00388.HK) has remained flat year-to-date, underperforming the HSI, with a short selling amount of $614.31 million and a ratio of 17.107%.
Investor Concerns: Goldman Sachs attributes the underperformance to investor worries about the pace of new listings and the quality of listing documents, alongside concerns regarding valuation and moderate earnings growth outlook for FY2026.
Earnings Forecast: Goldman Sachs anticipates HKEX's 4Q25 net profit to be $3.9 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from previous forecasts and a 2% year-over-year growth, with earnings excluding investment income expected to rise by 14% YoY to $2.9 billion.
Analyst Rating: Despite the concerns, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on HKEX, keeping the target price unchanged at $546.
Carlson Tong: HKEX to Accelerate Efforts in the Year of the Horse
Lunar New Year Greetings: HKEX Chairman Carlson Tong and CEO Bonnie Chan shared a video greeting for the Lunar New Year, emphasizing the horse's symbolism of strength and determination for the exchange's future.
Market Developments: Chan highlighted HKEX's progress over the past year, including reforms and a diverse product ecosystem that have brought opportunities to the Hong Kong market, inspiring confidence for the upcoming year.
BIDU-SW's Kunlunxin Reportedly Set to Begin Roadshow Following Lunar New Year
Investor Roadshow Announcement: Baidu's subsidiary Kunlunxin is set to launch an investor roadshow after the Lunar New Year, focusing on existing institutional shareholders.
Listing Application: Kunlunxin has submitted a confidential Main Board listing application to HKEX earlier this year.
Short Selling Data: The short selling for BIDU-SW is reported at $492.08 million with a ratio of 24.610%, while another figure shows $614.31 million and a ratio of 17.107%.
Valuation Update: Following its Series D financing in July 2025, Kunlunxin's post-investment valuation is reported to be RMB21 billion.
HSI Closes 465 Points Lower; AIA and Stanchart Drop 4%; Commodity Stocks Decline
Market Overview: The DJIA fell 1.3% as tech stocks were sold off, leading to a similar decline in the Hong Kong stock market, where the HSI ended down 1.7% at 26,567.
Financial Sector Performance: Major financial stocks like HSBC and HKEX dropped by 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively, while Bank of East Asia plunged 11% after reporting a significant profit drop and dividend cut.
Commodity and Gold Prices: Gold prices fell below USD 5,000/oz, impacting gold mining stocks, which saw declines of 5.9-7.6%. Oil prices also dropped nearly 3%, affecting major oil companies.
Tech Sector Decline: The tech sector experienced minor declines, with Tencent and Alibaba seeing drops of around 0.7% to 2.0%, while other tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu fell over 3%.
<Full-day Summary> HSI Falls by 465 Points; HSTI Declines by 48 Points; MEITUAN Drops More Than 3%; WH GROUP, SHK PPT, TIANGONG INT'L, MINTH GROUP, and CH OVS G OCEANS Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 465 points (1.7%) to close at 26,567, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines, with market turnover reaching $257.58 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Meituan, Ping An, and HKEX saw significant drops, with Meituan down 3.2% and Ping An down 2.2%. Xiaomi was the only heavyweight to gain, closing up 0.9%.
Notable Declines: Several constituents of the HSI and HSCEI, including Zijin Mining and Sinopec Corp, experienced substantial losses, with Zijin Mining dropping 7.6% and Sinopec Corp down 5.1%.
Gainers and New Highs: Despite the overall market decline, some stocks like Haidilao and WH Group saw gains, with Haidilao up 3.1% and WH Group hitting a new high, closing up 0.9%.
<Midday Update> HSI Ends Midday at 26,705, Gaining 138 Points; HSTI Reaches 5,367, Up 7 Points; ZIJIN MINING Surges Over 4%; HK & CHINA GAS, CK ASSET, WH GROUP, TIANGONG INT'L, and CONCH VENTURE Achieve New Record Highs
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 138 points (0.5%) to 26,705, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also saw slight gains.
Active Heavyweights: Notable movements included HKEX (+0.9%), PING AN (+0.4%), and TENCENT (+0.2%), while XIAOMI, BABA, and MEITUAN experienced minor declines.
Significant Movers: ZIJIN MINING surged by 4.7%, CHINAHONGQIAO increased by 3.9%, and CNOOC rose by 3.7%, while YUM CHINA fell by 4.6%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, with YUM CHINA at 47.6% and MEITUAN at 25.8%, indicating significant market speculation.
G Sachs: HKEX (00388.HK) Lagging Behind HSI Year-to-Date; Rating Maintained at Buy
HKEX Share Performance: The share price of HKEX (00388.HK) has remained flat year-to-date, underperforming the HSI, with a short selling amount of $614.31 million and a ratio of 17.107%.
Investor Concerns: Goldman Sachs attributes the underperformance to investor worries about the pace of new listings and the quality of listing documents, alongside concerns regarding valuation and moderate earnings growth outlook for FY2026.
Earnings Forecast: Goldman Sachs anticipates HKEX's 4Q25 net profit to be $3.9 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from previous forecasts and a 2% year-over-year growth, with earnings excluding investment income expected to rise by 14% YoY to $2.9 billion.
Analyst Rating: Despite the concerns, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on HKEX, keeping the target price unchanged at $546.
Carlson Tong: HKEX to Accelerate Efforts in the Year of the Horse
Lunar New Year Greetings: HKEX Chairman Carlson Tong and CEO Bonnie Chan shared a video greeting for the Lunar New Year, emphasizing the horse's symbolism of strength and determination for the exchange's future.
Market Developments: Chan highlighted HKEX's progress over the past year, including reforms and a diverse product ecosystem that have brought opportunities to the Hong Kong market, inspiring confidence for the upcoming year.
BIDU-SW's Kunlunxin Reportedly Set to Begin Roadshow Following Lunar New Year
Investor Roadshow Announcement: Baidu's subsidiary Kunlunxin is set to launch an investor roadshow after the Lunar New Year, focusing on existing institutional shareholders.
Listing Application: Kunlunxin has submitted a confidential Main Board listing application to HKEX earlier this year.
Short Selling Data: The short selling for BIDU-SW is reported at $492.08 million with a ratio of 24.610%, while another figure shows $614.31 million and a ratio of 17.107%.
Valuation Update: Following its Series D financing in July 2025, Kunlunxin's post-investment valuation is reported to be RMB21 billion.
HSI Closes 465 Points Lower; AIA and Stanchart Drop 4%; Commodity Stocks Decline
Market Overview: The DJIA fell 1.3% as tech stocks were sold off, leading to a similar decline in the Hong Kong stock market, where the HSI ended down 1.7% at 26,567.
Financial Sector Performance: Major financial stocks like HSBC and HKEX dropped by 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively, while Bank of East Asia plunged 11% after reporting a significant profit drop and dividend cut.
Commodity and Gold Prices: Gold prices fell below USD 5,000/oz, impacting gold mining stocks, which saw declines of 5.9-7.6%. Oil prices also dropped nearly 3%, affecting major oil companies.
Tech Sector Decline: The tech sector experienced minor declines, with Tencent and Alibaba seeing drops of around 0.7% to 2.0%, while other tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu fell over 3%.
<Full-day Summary> HSI Falls by 465 Points; HSTI Declines by 48 Points; MEITUAN Drops More Than 3%; WH GROUP, SHK PPT, TIANGONG INT'L, MINTH GROUP, and CH OVS G OCEANS Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 465 points (1.7%) to close at 26,567, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines, with market turnover reaching $257.58 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Meituan, Ping An, and HKEX saw significant drops, with Meituan down 3.2% and Ping An down 2.2%. Xiaomi was the only heavyweight to gain, closing up 0.9%.
Notable Declines: Several constituents of the HSI and HSCEI, including Zijin Mining and Sinopec Corp, experienced substantial losses, with Zijin Mining dropping 7.6% and Sinopec Corp down 5.1%.
Gainers and New Highs: Despite the overall market decline, some stocks like Haidilao and WH Group saw gains, with Haidilao up 3.1% and WH Group hitting a new high, closing up 0.9%.
