M Stanley Maintains Overweight Rating on WYNN MACAU; 4Q Results Below Expectations but Consistent

4Q25 Financial Results: WYNN MACAU reported a net revenue of US$968 million for 4Q25, a 4% increase year-over-year, but adjusted property EBITDA fell 7% to US$271 million, below market expectations.

Future Performance Outlook: CICC forecasts strong performance for WYNN MACAU during the 2026 Lunar New Year, driven by the new premium gaming area at Wynn Palace, with positive business trends anticipated to continue into 2026.

Brokerage Ratings: M Stanley has maintained an Overweight rating on WYNN MACAU, keeping its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged, along with a target price of $7.2.

Market Activity: The stock has seen short selling of $19.38 million, with a short selling ratio of 21.606%, indicating some market caution despite the overall positive outlook.

WYNN MACAU's Financial Performance: WYNN MACAU's 4Q25 property EBITDA fell by 12% QoQ and 7% YoY to USD271 million, with adjusted EBITDA at USD287 million, showing slight growth QoQ but a decline YoY, aligning with broker expectations but missing market forecasts.

Market Context and Comparisons: Despite Macau's increasing GGR, WYNN MACAU's corporate EBITDA decreased by 7% YoY, underperforming compared to its peers, and higher capital expenditures for 2026-27 are expected to limit free cash flow.

Analyst Rating and Target Price: Morgan Stanley has rated WYNN MACAU as Overweight, setting a target price of HKD7.4 for the stock.

Short Selling Activity: The stock has seen short selling of $8.04 million, with a short selling ratio of 15.395%, indicating a significant level of bearish sentiment among investors.

Earnings Performance: WYNN MACAU's 4Q25 results met JPMorgan's expectations with an EBITDA of USD287 million, aligning closely with the forecast of USD285 million.

Valuation and Rating: Despite the earnings announcement being deemed non-significant, JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on WYNN MACAU, citing its attractive valuation metrics and a target price of HKD8.

4Q25 Results: WYNN MACAU's fourth quarter results fell slightly below expectations due to rising costs and a less favorable gaming revenue mix, with property EBITDA at USD271 million.

Analyst Ratings: Goldman Sachs has maintained a Neutral rating on WYNN MACAU, setting a target price of HKD7, while JPMorgan remains Overweight, citing attractive valuation despite unremarkable quarterly results.

Wynn Macau Reopening: Wynn Macau will reopen its premium Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace for Lunar New Year after receiving government approvals.

Expansion Details: The Chairman’s Club will expand to nearly 100,000 square feet, tripling its previous size, catering to high-value customers.

Financial Performance: WYNN MACAU's 4Q25 property EBITDA fell by 7% YoY to $2.113 billion, aligning with CLSA's expectations but falling 10% short of market consensus due to lower VIP and mass win rates.

Capital Expenditure Guidance: The company reduced its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $450-500 million to $400-450 million, with plans to complete renovations of the Chairman's Club at Wynn Palace before the Lunar New Year.

Market Rating: CLSA has rated WYNN MACAU as "Outperform" with a target price set at $8.2, indicating a positive outlook despite recent performance declines.

Short Selling Activity: The stock experienced short selling of $2.25 million, with a short selling ratio of 11.826%, reflecting investor sentiment towards the company's current financial situation.