JPM Maintains Overweight Rating on MENGNIU DAIRY, Lowers Target Price to HKD20, Anticipates Sales and Earnings Recovery This Year
JPMorgan's Forecast: JPMorgan predicts MENGNIU DAIRY's sales and adjusted earnings will rebound by 2% and 17% YoY in 2026, following declines in 2025.
Market Environment: The competitive landscape is expected to improve, with MENGNIU DAIRY optimizing its product mix and expanding channels despite moderate demand and competition from other beverages.
Citi's Target Price Adjustment: Citi has raised MENGNIU DAIRY's target price to HKD21.1, expecting the operating profit margin to increase this year.
JPMorgan's Rating: JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on MENGNIU DAIRY but has lowered its target price from HKD22 to HKD20, citing strong sales during the Chinese New Year as a potential short-term catalyst.
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HSI Rises 138 Points in Half-Day Trading as CMOC/LAOPU GOLD Jumps 6% After Blue Chip Inclusion; Overall HSI Increases 32% in Year of the Snake
Hong Kong Stock Performance: On February 16, Hong Kong stocks saw a positive half-day session, with the HSI closing up 138 points (0.5%) at 26,705, marking a strong overall performance in the Year of the Snake with a 32% gain.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: The quarterly review of the HSI included the addition of CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD, which saw significant gains, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed from the index.
Individual Stock Movements: Notable stock movements included SANDS CHINA LTD rising 2.7% despite a slight decline in property EBITDA, while ANTA SPORTS experienced a minor drop after shareholder approval for a significant acquisition.
US Department of War Update: The US Department of War's withdrawal of the "List of Chinese Military Companies" impacted stock prices, with BABA-W declining 0.5% and BIDU-SW increasing by 1.3%.
HSI Declines by 65 Points at Opening; CATL and CMOC Start Strong Among Blue Chips; Alibaba and Baidu Struggle
US Inflation and Stock Market Update: US inflation was below expectations while core inflation met them; the DJIA rose by 0.1% last Friday.
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse opened lower, with the HSI down 0.2% and other indices also showing declines.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD were added to the HSI, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed; CATL and CMOC saw slight increases in their stock prices.
Notable Stock Movements: Stocks like BABA-W and BIDU-SW dropped significantly after being listed as Chinese military companies, while ANTA SPORTS received approval for a stake acquisition in PUMA.
BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W Join HSCEI; CHINA RES BEER and MENGNIU DAIRY Excluded
Index Review Announcement: Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review for the Hang Seng Family of Indexes, effective from March 9, 2026.
Additions and Deletions: BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W will be added to the HSCEI, while CHINA RES BEER and MENGNIU DAIRY will be removed, keeping the total number of constituents at 50.
Short Selling Data: The short selling data indicates significant activity for the stocks involved, with BEKE-W showing a short selling ratio of 34.793%.
Market Impact: Changes will take effect after market close on March 6, 2026, potentially influencing trading strategies and market dynamics.
<JPM Research> Highlights Top LNY Consumption Choices (Table)
Stock Performance: Several stocks, including Tencent, Laopu Gold, and MGM China, experienced declines in their prices, with short selling ratios indicating significant market activity.
Investment Ratings: Most of the stocks listed, such as Tencent and Laopu Gold, are rated as "Overweight," suggesting a positive outlook from analysts despite recent price drops.
Short Selling Data: The short selling data reveals varying levels of market skepticism, with Laopu Gold showing the highest short selling ratio at 22.243%.
Market Updates: BOCI has raised the target price for Luk Fook Holdings to HKD 35.9, highlighting it as an industry top pick amidst the current market conditions.
JPM Selects TENCENT, LAOPU GOLD, MGM CHINA, and TRIP.COM-S as Preferred Stocks; Maintains Optimism on Chinese Stock Market
JPMorgan's Trading Strategy: JPMorgan has recommended an upside options trading strategy focused on the Chinese consumer market ahead of the Chinese New Year, highlighting high-end baijiu, premium proteins, major condiments, gold, and tourism as key sectors.
Stock Market Outlook: The firm remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market but advises investors to be selective, naming TENCENT, LAOPU GOLD, MGM CHINA, TAL Education, TRIP.COM, HAITIAN FLAV, KWEICHOW MOUTAI, MENGNIU DAIRY, and WULIANGYE as top stock picks.
<Full-day Summary> HSI Falls 325 Points; HSTI Declines 59 Points; AIA Drops More Than 5%; ZTO EXPRESS-W, BOC HONG KONG, SHK PPT, REALORD GROUP, SANY INT'L Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 325 points (1.2%) to 26,559, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines, with market turnover reaching $247.87 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent saw significant drops, with Alibaba closing down 2.9% at $155, while Xiaomi and CCB managed slight gains.
Notable Movers: AIA experienced a sharp decline of 5.5%, while Li Auto and Mengniu Dairy saw increases of 3.6% and 3%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were noted for several companies, including Ping An and CCB, indicating increased market speculation and potential bearish sentiment.
HSI Rises 138 Points in Half-Day Trading as CMOC/LAOPU GOLD Jumps 6% After Blue Chip Inclusion; Overall HSI Increases 32% in Year of the Snake
Hong Kong Stock Performance: On February 16, Hong Kong stocks saw a positive half-day session, with the HSI closing up 138 points (0.5%) at 26,705, marking a strong overall performance in the Year of the Snake with a 32% gain.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: The quarterly review of the HSI included the addition of CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD, which saw significant gains, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed from the index.
Individual Stock Movements: Notable stock movements included SANDS CHINA LTD rising 2.7% despite a slight decline in property EBITDA, while ANTA SPORTS experienced a minor drop after shareholder approval for a significant acquisition.
US Department of War Update: The US Department of War's withdrawal of the "List of Chinese Military Companies" impacted stock prices, with BABA-W declining 0.5% and BIDU-SW increasing by 1.3%.
HSI Declines by 65 Points at Opening; CATL and CMOC Start Strong Among Blue Chips; Alibaba and Baidu Struggle
US Inflation and Stock Market Update: US inflation was below expectations while core inflation met them; the DJIA rose by 0.1% last Friday.
Hong Kong Stock Market Performance: The Hong Kong bourse opened lower, with the HSI down 0.2% and other indices also showing declines.
HSI Quarterly Review Changes: CATL, CMOC, and LAOPU GOLD were added to the HSI, while ZHONGSHENG HLDG was removed; CATL and CMOC saw slight increases in their stock prices.
Notable Stock Movements: Stocks like BABA-W and BIDU-SW dropped significantly after being listed as Chinese military companies, while ANTA SPORTS received approval for a stake acquisition in PUMA.
BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W Join HSCEI; CHINA RES BEER and MENGNIU DAIRY Excluded
Index Review Announcement: Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of its quarterly review for the Hang Seng Family of Indexes, effective from March 9, 2026.
Additions and Deletions: BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W will be added to the HSCEI, while CHINA RES BEER and MENGNIU DAIRY will be removed, keeping the total number of constituents at 50.
Short Selling Data: The short selling data indicates significant activity for the stocks involved, with BEKE-W showing a short selling ratio of 34.793%.
Market Impact: Changes will take effect after market close on March 6, 2026, potentially influencing trading strategies and market dynamics.
<JPM Research> Highlights Top LNY Consumption Choices (Table)
Stock Performance: Several stocks, including Tencent, Laopu Gold, and MGM China, experienced declines in their prices, with short selling ratios indicating significant market activity.
Investment Ratings: Most of the stocks listed, such as Tencent and Laopu Gold, are rated as "Overweight," suggesting a positive outlook from analysts despite recent price drops.
Short Selling Data: The short selling data reveals varying levels of market skepticism, with Laopu Gold showing the highest short selling ratio at 22.243%.
Market Updates: BOCI has raised the target price for Luk Fook Holdings to HKD 35.9, highlighting it as an industry top pick amidst the current market conditions.
JPM Selects TENCENT, LAOPU GOLD, MGM CHINA, and TRIP.COM-S as Preferred Stocks; Maintains Optimism on Chinese Stock Market
JPMorgan's Trading Strategy: JPMorgan has recommended an upside options trading strategy focused on the Chinese consumer market ahead of the Chinese New Year, highlighting high-end baijiu, premium proteins, major condiments, gold, and tourism as key sectors.
Stock Market Outlook: The firm remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market but advises investors to be selective, naming TENCENT, LAOPU GOLD, MGM CHINA, TAL Education, TRIP.COM, HAITIAN FLAV, KWEICHOW MOUTAI, MENGNIU DAIRY, and WULIANGYE as top stock picks.
<Full-day Summary> HSI Falls 325 Points; HSTI Declines 59 Points; AIA Drops More Than 5%; ZTO EXPRESS-W, BOC HONG KONG, SHK PPT, REALORD GROUP, SANY INT'L Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 325 points (1.2%) to 26,559, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines, with market turnover reaching $247.87 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent saw significant drops, with Alibaba closing down 2.9% at $155, while Xiaomi and CCB managed slight gains.
Notable Movers: AIA experienced a sharp decline of 5.5%, while Li Auto and Mengniu Dairy saw increases of 3.6% and 3%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were noted for several companies, including Ping An and CCB, indicating increased market speculation and potential bearish sentiment.
