Investment Outlook for Amazon and MercadoLibre
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy AMZN?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Amazon's Cloud Computing Edge: Although Amazon's cloud division, AWS, only accounted for 18% of the company's revenue in 2025, it generated the majority of operating income, highlighting its critical role in profitability; however, the $200 billion capital expenditure plan may unsettle investors.
- MercadoLibre's Fintech Challenges: MercadoLibre's fintech arm has become a growth driver amid Latin America's shift from cash to digital payments, but the provision for bad loans surged 58% to over $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, significantly slowing profit growth.
- Liquidity and Investment Capacity: Amazon generated $11 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and holds $123 billion in liquidity, enabling it to support its massive investment plans, demonstrating strong financial resilience despite high expenditures.
- Risk and Return Trade-off: When choosing between investing in Amazon or MercadoLibre, risk tolerance is crucial; Amazon's liquidity and potential as a hidden AI winner make it suitable for risk-averse investors, while MercadoLibre's smaller size and rapid growth potential appeal to those willing to take on higher risks.
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Analyst Views on AMZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMZN stock price to rise
47 Analyst Rating
46 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
About AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. provides a range of products and services to customers. The products offered through its stores include merchandise and content it has purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, Ring, Blink, and eero, and develops and produces media content. It serves developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through AWS, which offers a set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning, and other services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Accelerating Cloud Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 24% revenue increase in Q4, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, with CEO Andy Jassy noting that the custom chip business has surpassed a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield returns.
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See More
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- Revenue Growth Concerns: The Amazon e-commerce platform saw a revenue increase of about 10% in 2025, matching the previous year but lower than 2023 and 2022, indicating the impact of tariffs on sellers and buyers, raising investor concerns.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, representing over a 50% increase from 2025, which may further deplete free cash flow already down 71% to $11.2 billion.
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- Policy Response Measures: The Trump administration has signed a pact with several states urging major tech companies to finance $15 billion for new power plants to alleviate the strain data centers place on the grid, demonstrating proactive government intervention in energy policy.
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- Intensified Market Competition: The rapid advancement of AI technology raises questions about the value of enterprise software, leading investors to adopt a pessimistic view on the future of traditional software companies, especially in labor-intensive areas that may face workforce reductions due to AI adoption.
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See More
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- Stock Decline: Amazon's stock has dropped 14% year-to-date and has faced a nine-day losing streak, the longest since July 2006, although Wall Street believes the stock is undervalued with a median target price of $285, indicating a potential 43% upside.
- Strong Financial Results: Despite narrowly missing earnings expectations, Amazon reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $213 billion in Q4, driven by robust growth in advertising and cloud computing, highlighting the company's competitive position in rapidly growing markets.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to increase capital expenditures to $200 billion by 2026, a 56% rise from $128 billion in 2025, raising investor concerns about the company's financial health, particularly regarding its significant investments in AI infrastructure.
- Accelerating Cloud Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 24% revenue increase in Q4, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, with CEO Andy Jassy noting that the custom chip business has surpassed a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield returns.
See More
Amazon's AWS Shows Strong Performance, Stock Recovery Potential
- AWS Growth Acceleration: Amazon's cloud computing platform, AWS, grew at a pace of 24% in Q4, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters, highlighting its critical role in AI model development and enhancing Amazon's competitive position in the market.
- Valuation Pullback Justified: Despite significant revenue and earnings growth, Amazon's stock has declined by approximately 7% since 2025, with its PE ratio dropping to 26.5 times, reflecting a market reassessment of its valuation, potentially providing a reasonable buying opportunity for investors.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for data center construction, which may impact cash flows; however, if AI computing demand continues to grow, this investment will support future business expansion.
- Investor Confidence Recovery: Although the Motley Fool analyst team did not include Amazon in their current best stock picks, analysts believe that Amazon is poised for a stock rebound in 2026, indicating a recovery in market confidence regarding its future performance.
See More
Amazon Stock Presents Strong Buying Opportunity Amidst Short-Term Concerns
- Stock Price Decline: Amazon's stock has dropped approximately 11% year-to-date, with a current P/E ratio of 28, the lowest in a decade, presenting a buying opportunity for investors at a cheaper valuation, with a potential 39% return expected.
- Analyst Consensus: A significant 92% of Wall Street analysts rate Amazon stock as a buy, with a median price target of $285 per share, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth despite the current price of $205.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, which will likely further deplete free cash flow but is deemed essential for maintaining market leadership.
- AWS Growth Potential: While AWS's net sales grew by 20%, it faces competition from Microsoft and Alphabet; however, its backlog of $244 billion, up 40% year-over-year, indicates strong future earnings potential.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Amazon Stock
- Stock Valuation Decline: Amazon's stock has dropped approximately 11% year-to-date, with a current P/E ratio of around 28, the lowest in a decade, presenting a buying opportunity for investors with a potential 39% return ahead.
- Revenue Growth Concerns: The Amazon e-commerce platform saw a revenue increase of about 10% in 2025, matching the previous year but lower than 2023 and 2022, indicating the impact of tariffs on sellers and buyers, raising investor concerns.
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, representing over a 50% increase from 2025, which may further deplete free cash flow already down 71% to $11.2 billion.
- Securing Market Leadership: Despite short-term challenges, the capital expenditures are essential for maintaining Amazon's leadership in cloud computing, with AWS's $244 billion backlog indicating strong future revenue potential.
See More
White House Considers Cost Burden on Data Centers
- Cost Internalization for Data Centers: White House trade advisor Peter Navarro stated that data center builders must absorb costs related to electricity and water usage, highlighting the government's concern over economic pressures that could impact companies like Meta.
- Rising Electricity Prices: With electricity prices spiking 6.9% year-over-year in 2025, public anxiety about the economy is increasing, as Navarro attempts to blame former President Biden, indicating the current administration's challenges in addressing inflation.
- Policy Response Measures: The Trump administration has signed a pact with several states urging major tech companies to finance $15 billion for new power plants to alleviate the strain data centers place on the grid, demonstrating proactive government intervention in energy policy.
- Election Outlook Impact: As the November 2026 midterms approach, polls show Democrats leading by 5.2 points, reflecting voter concerns over economic issues that could affect Trump's and the Republican Party's electoral prospects.
See More
Anthropic Leads AI Revolution, Software Industry Faces Challenges
- AI Disrupts Traditional Software: The rise of Anthropic poses significant challenges to traditional software companies like Workday and Salesforce, particularly in the application of AI technology, threatening their market share and customer loyalty.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Tech giants like Amazon and Google have significantly raised their capital expenditure outlooks, with Amazon projecting spending to reach $200 billion, far exceeding the $147 billion consensus, which could impact stock performance and investor confidence.
- Intensified Market Competition: The rapid advancement of AI technology raises questions about the value of enterprise software, leading investors to adopt a pessimistic view on the future of traditional software companies, especially in labor-intensive areas that may face workforce reductions due to AI adoption.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite significant advancements by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI space, market confidence in traditional software companies is waning, resulting in poor stock performance over the past six months and raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
