Incyte signs option deal with Prelude for JH2 inhibitor initiative
Incyte and Prelude Agreement: Incyte has signed a deal with Prelude Therapeutics for an exclusive option license on Prelude's JAK2V617F JH2 inhibitor program, aimed at treating rare blood cancers, valued at up to $935 million.
Financial Details: Prelude will receive a $35 million upfront payment, $25 million in strategic investments, and potential milestone payments totaling $775 million, along with royalties on future sales.
Program Development: The JAK2V617F JH2 inhibitor is in development for myeloproliferative neoplasms, with Prelude set to present preclinical data at the upcoming American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting.
Prelude's Strategic Shift: Prelude will focus on developing its KAT6A degrader for ER+ breast cancer while pausing its SMARCA2 degrader programs, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by approximately 48% in premarket trading.
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- Retail Sales Weakness: US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the +0.4% expectation, indicating weakness in consumer spending that could lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, thereby impacting market confidence and economic growth outlook.
- Employment Cost Index Decline: The US Q4 employment cost index rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected +0.8%, marking the smallest increase in 4.5 years, suggesting easing labor cost pressures that may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high, closing up +0.10%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell by -0.33% and -0.56%, respectively, reflecting divergent market sentiment and uncertainty.
- Focus on Upcoming Economic Data: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, which are expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and market trends.
- Retail Sales Stagnation: US retail sales for December were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the +0.4% expectation, indicating weakness in consumer spending that could lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, thereby impacting overall economic growth forecasts.
- Employment Cost Index Decline: The Q4 employment cost index rose by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected 0.8%, marking the smallest increase in 4.5 years, suggesting easing labor cost pressures that may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, reflecting strong corporate profitability that could support stock market performance.
- Market Focus on Economic Data: This week, the market will concentrate on upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are expected to influence investor expectations regarding future interest rate policies and subsequently affect stock market volatility.
- Sales Performance Exceeds Expectations: Incyte reported total revenues of $1.51 billion in Q4 2025, a 28% increase year-over-year, with annual revenues reaching $5.14 billion, reflecting strong performance in both core business and Jakafi sales, with expectations for continued growth in 2026.
- Core Business Growth Significant: The core business, excluding Jakafi, achieved $1.26 billion in sales in Q4, a 53% year-over-year increase, driven by Opzelura, NiktimVo, and Monjuvi, with projections for over 30% growth in 2026 and potential to reach $3 billion to $4 billion by 2030.
- Strong New Product Sales: Opzelura's net sales totaled $207 million in Q4, up 28%, with full-year sales at $678 million, and 2026 sales expected to reach $750 million to $790 million, indicating rapid growth in international markets.
- Increased R&D Spending: The company reported GAAP R&D expenses of $611 million for Q4, a 31% increase, reflecting ongoing investments in new products and clinical trials, with 2026 R&D and SG&A expenses projected to be $3.495 billion to $3.675 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Amentum Holdings Decline: Amentum Holdings' stock fell approximately 12% after fiscal Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA missed Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates, indicating market concerns over its financial performance and potential future financing capabilities.
- BP Suspends Buyback: BP Plc suspended its stock buyback program to strengthen its balance sheet, resulting in a 6% drop in its ADRs in the U.S., reflecting the company's cautious approach amid market volatility.
- ZoomInfo Downgrade: ZoomInfo Technologies forecasted first-quarter earnings per share between 25 to 27 cents, below analysts' expectations of 27 cents, leading to a 10% decline in its stock price, which may affect market confidence and investor sentiment.
- Ichor Holdings Surge: Ichor Holdings' shares soared 37% to a 52-week high due to strong demand driving a fourth-quarter earnings beat, highlighting the recovery potential in the semiconductor equipment market.
- Disappointing Earnings: Incyte's Q4 2025 financial results revealed a non-GAAP EPS of $1.80, which fell short of market expectations, leading to a ~6% decline in stock price during Tuesday's trading.
- Weak 2026 Revenue Guidance: The company projects 2026 revenues between $4.77B and $4.94B, significantly below the consensus estimate of $5.53B, indicating uncertainty in future growth prospects.
- Sales Growth in Key Products: Despite the overall disappointing performance, Incyte's leading product Jakafi saw a 7% year-over-year sales increase to approximately $828.2M, while Opzelura's sales surged 28% to about $207.3M, demonstrating strong product line performance.
- Increased Cash Reserves: By the end of 2025, the company reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $3.6B, a substantial rise from $2.2B at the end of 2024, enhancing the company's financial stability.
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.15%, indicating market resilience despite weak economic data, although stagnant retail sales may impact consumer spending.
- Economic Data Impact: December retail sales were unchanged, falling short of the expected 0.4%, while the Q4 employment cost index rose by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the anticipated 0.8%, which could lead to a downward revision of Q4 GDP, reflecting potential economic slowdown.
- Earnings Season: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% of the 297 companies exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, indicating strong corporate performance that may support the stock market.
- Rate Expectations: The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting, reflecting cautious optimism among investors regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of the current weak economic data.









