Graphic Packaging Under Investigation for Securities Fraud Amid Lowered EBITDA Guidance of $1.38 to $1.43 Billion
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GPK?
Source: Globenewswire
- Securities Fraud Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating whether Graphic Packaging Holding Company has engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, which could undermine investor confidence and lead to stock price volatility.
- Earnings Guidance Downgrade: The company announced on December 8, 2025, that its adjusted EBITDA outlook was lowered from $1.40 to $1.45 billion to a range of $1.38 to $1.43 billion, indicating a decline in profitability that may affect future investment decisions.
- Significant Stock Drop: Following the earnings warning, Graphic Packaging's stock price fell by $1.53, or 8.66%, to close at $14.23 per share on December 9, 2025, reflecting market concerns about the company's outlook.
- Potential Legal Consequences: Should the investigation confirm misconduct by the company and its executives, it may face class action lawsuits, exacerbating investor losses and increasing market uncertainty.
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Analyst Views on GPK
Wall Street analysts forecast GPK stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 12.210
Low
12.00
Averages
17.00
High
23.00
Current: 12.210
Low
12.00
Averages
17.00
High
23.00
About GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a consumer packaging provider. It produces consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. It designs and manufactures packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, cups and bowls made from unbleached paperboard, recycled paperboard, and bleached paperboard. Its segments include Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage, and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants (QSR) in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside the Americas.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Financial Warning: Graphic Packaging projects a decline in Adjusted EBITDA for 2026, primarily due to a $130 million negative impact from inventory reduction efforts, which could undermine investor confidence and lead to further stock price declines.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the February 3, 2026 earnings report, Graphic Packaging's stock fell by $2.36, or 15.97%, closing at $12.42 per share, reflecting market concerns over the company's future financial health.
- Legal Investigation: Pomerantz LLP is investigating whether Graphic Packaging and its executives have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices, which could expose the company to legal liabilities and damage its reputation.
- Investor Alert: Pomerantz LLP advises affected investors to contact their attorneys to join the class action, indicating a rising concern among investors regarding corporate governance and financial transparency.
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- Leadership Transition: New CEO Robbert Rietbroek emphasized the establishment of a transformation office and organizational changes to enhance transparency and accountability, aiming to drive operational improvements and cost savings without disrupting customer service, thereby strengthening the company's competitive position.
- Financial Performance: Fourth-quarter net sales reached $2.1 billion, remaining flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA at $311 million; despite pressures from declining prices and volumes, a $40 million foreign exchange benefit partially offset these impacts.
- Future Outlook: The company expects net sales for 2026 to range between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $1.050 billion to $1.250 billion, reflecting confidence in innovation-driven sales growth while planning to reduce capital expenditures to approximately $450 million.
- Inventory Management: Management plans to reduce inventory levels from 20% to 15%-16% of sales, emphasizing strict cost control and operational efficiency to navigate market uncertainties, ensuring sustainable growth for the company in the future.
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- Stock Performance: Graphic Packaging shares fell by 3.3% following the announcement of their Q4 earnings.
- Earnings Report: The decline in stock price was attributed to a miss in earnings expectations for the fourth quarter.
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- Earnings Performance: Graphic Packaging reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, missing expectations by $0.06, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Results: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year but beating market expectations by $70 million, demonstrating some sales resilience in a stable market environment.
- 2026 Guidance: The company expects 2026 net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, both below consensus, reflecting negative impacts from inventory reduction and cash flow generation efforts.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Anticipated capital spending for 2026 is approximately $450 million, while expected Adjusted Free Cash Flow ranges from $700 million to $800 million, indicating a cautious approach to cost control and investment.
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