Goldman Sachs Identifies Key Factor That Could Transform Rally into a Bubble
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 08 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NIO?
Source: MarketWatch
Market Outlook: Stocks are poised for a rebound following a selloff attributed to concerns over big tech and AI spending, as highlighted in a Bank of England report.
Goldman Sachs Perspective: Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that the current bull run for stocks and leading tech companies is not nearing an end, despite concerns about a potential bubble.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NIO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NIO
Wall Street analysts forecast NIO stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.950
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
Current: 4.950
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
About NIO
NIO Inc is a holding company mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company offers premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand. The Company focuses on building in-house capabilities including battery swapping, assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrain and battery, vehicle engineering and design, among others, to control the design and development of the vehicle software and hardware architecture and the critical components.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nio Reports Delivery Growth and Profit Expectations
- Significant Delivery Growth: Nio's deliveries approached 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a 71.7% year-over-year increase, with December deliveries reaching 48,135 units, up 54.6% from the previous year, indicating strong sales momentum driven by its new brands Onvo and Firefly, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Rising Gross Margins: Nio's gross profit margins have steadily improved over the past few years, and despite its new brands being priced lower than the flagship brand, the company anticipates achieving an adjusted operating profit of between $100 million and $172 million in Q4 2025, signaling a positive shift in financial health.
- Battery Swap Network Challenges: While Nio's battery swapping network could potentially become a competitive advantage, its significant upfront investment and ongoing operational costs currently weigh on financials, especially as alternative fast-charging options gain traction in the market, posing profitability challenges.
- Investor Confidence Boost: Nio's announcement of its first adjusted operating profit has bolstered investor optimism about its future, particularly as the company aims for breakeven in 2026, despite the competitive pressures it faces from rivals in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Morgan Stanley Reshuffles EV Portfolio Amid Market Volatility
- Nio Stake Reduction: Morgan Stanley cut its Nio stake by approximately 6% in Q4, ending with about 15.3 million shares valued near $75 million, reflecting a cautious approach amid market volatility following new SUV launches.
- Tesla Continued Trim: The firm reduced its Tesla holdings for the third consecutive quarter, finishing with roughly 35.8 million shares, the lowest since 2023, despite maintaining a value exceeding $14 billion, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Rivian Stake Increase: Morgan Stanley boosted its Rivian stake by nearly 47% in Q4, raising holdings to about 12.2 million shares, signaling renewed confidence ahead of the R2 mid-size SUV launch and a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on social media showed Nio as ‘bearish’, Tesla as ‘bullish’, while Rivian garnered ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment, indicating investor optimism about its future performance amidst changing market dynamics.
See More
Nio and AST SpaceMobile Growth Prospects Analysis
- Nio's Sales Surge: Nio's deliveries reached 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 39% increase, with expectations to rise 58% to 351,221 vehicles in 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market, particularly driven by its premium ET-series sedans and Onvo SUVs.
- Market Expansion Strategy: Nio is actively expanding into the European market to reduce reliance on the saturated Chinese EV market, a strategy that not only enhances its international market share but also may alleviate macro pressures from ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.
- AST Satellite Network Development: AST SpaceMobile plans to deploy 45-60 LEO satellites by the end of 2026, with revenue projected to surge from $4 million to $699 million by 2027, showcasing significant growth potential in the satellite communications market.
- Government Contract Opportunities: AST's selection as a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program not only diversifies its business model but also may provide stable government contract revenue, further enhancing its profitability prospects.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in High-Growth Stocks
- Nio's Growth Potential: Nio is projected to deliver 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 39% increase from 2023, and expects a further 58% growth to 351,221 vehicles in 2025, showcasing strong growth potential in the EV market despite macro pressures in China.
- Profit Expectations: Nio anticipates achieving its first profit in Q4 2025, a pivotal moment that could attract more investor attention and elevate its stock price, especially given its current valuation of less than 1 times this year's sales.
- AST SpaceMobile's Market Expansion: AST plans to deploy 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026 and aims to expand to 243 satellites in the coming years, with revenue expected to surge from $4 million in 2024 to $699 million by 2027, indicating significant potential in the low-earth orbit satellite market.
- Government Contract Opportunities: AST's selection as a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program suggests diversification beyond telecom contracts, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
See More
Analysis of Current Electric Vehicle Market Trends
- Sales Growth: Global EV sales surged 21% in 2025, with a notable 33% increase in Europe, indicating strong demand that could enhance market share for related companies.
- China's Market Dominance: EV sales in China grew by 19%, with Tesla holding a 4.4% market share, surpassing Nio, which highlights increasing competitive pressure on Nio in a rapidly consolidating market.
- Challenges for Nio: Nio reported a 15% year-over-year increase in vehicle sales in the latest quarter, yet its net losses reached $488.9 million, indicating a precarious position amid market consolidation and a lack of profitability.
- Rivian's Market Opportunity: Rivian ranks sixth in the U.S. market, achieving an 8% revenue growth in 2025, and while still unprofitable, it is approaching profitability faster than Nio, suggesting a stronger competitive position.
See More
Nio Anticipates First Adjusted Profit Amidst Challenges
- First Adjusted Profit: Nio anticipates reporting its first adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving at least breakeven for the full year 2026.
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, Nio's sales surged 71.7% year-over-year to nearly 125,000 vehicles, with December deliveries also rising 54.6% to a new high of 48,135 units, indicating strong traction for its new brands Onvo and Firefly.
- Improving Gross Margins: Despite the financial strain from its battery swapping network, Nio has consistently improved its gross profit margin, currently at 11.25%, which lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nio's gross margins are improving, its operating margins lag behind competitors due to the high operational costs of its battery swapping network, which may impact its long-term profitability.
See More
Nio Reports Delivery Growth and Profit Expectations
- Significant Delivery Growth: Nio's deliveries approached 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a 71.7% year-over-year increase, with December deliveries reaching 48,135 units, up 54.6% from the previous year, indicating strong sales momentum driven by its new brands Onvo and Firefly, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Rising Gross Margins: Nio's gross profit margins have steadily improved over the past few years, and despite its new brands being priced lower than the flagship brand, the company anticipates achieving an adjusted operating profit of between $100 million and $172 million in Q4 2025, signaling a positive shift in financial health.
- Battery Swap Network Challenges: While Nio's battery swapping network could potentially become a competitive advantage, its significant upfront investment and ongoing operational costs currently weigh on financials, especially as alternative fast-charging options gain traction in the market, posing profitability challenges.
- Investor Confidence Boost: Nio's announcement of its first adjusted operating profit has bolstered investor optimism about its future, particularly as the company aims for breakeven in 2026, despite the competitive pressures it faces from rivals in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Morgan Stanley Reshuffles EV Portfolio Amid Market Volatility
- Nio Stake Reduction: Morgan Stanley cut its Nio stake by approximately 6% in Q4, ending with about 15.3 million shares valued near $75 million, reflecting a cautious approach amid market volatility following new SUV launches.
- Tesla Continued Trim: The firm reduced its Tesla holdings for the third consecutive quarter, finishing with roughly 35.8 million shares, the lowest since 2023, despite maintaining a value exceeding $14 billion, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Rivian Stake Increase: Morgan Stanley boosted its Rivian stake by nearly 47% in Q4, raising holdings to about 12.2 million shares, signaling renewed confidence ahead of the R2 mid-size SUV launch and a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on social media showed Nio as ‘bearish’, Tesla as ‘bullish’, while Rivian garnered ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment, indicating investor optimism about its future performance amidst changing market dynamics.
See More
Nio and AST SpaceMobile Growth Prospects Analysis
- Nio's Sales Surge: Nio's deliveries reached 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 39% increase, with expectations to rise 58% to 351,221 vehicles in 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market, particularly driven by its premium ET-series sedans and Onvo SUVs.
- Market Expansion Strategy: Nio is actively expanding into the European market to reduce reliance on the saturated Chinese EV market, a strategy that not only enhances its international market share but also may alleviate macro pressures from ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.
- AST Satellite Network Development: AST SpaceMobile plans to deploy 45-60 LEO satellites by the end of 2026, with revenue projected to surge from $4 million to $699 million by 2027, showcasing significant growth potential in the satellite communications market.
- Government Contract Opportunities: AST's selection as a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program not only diversifies its business model but also may provide stable government contract revenue, further enhancing its profitability prospects.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in High-Growth Stocks
- Nio's Growth Potential: Nio is projected to deliver 221,970 vehicles in 2024, a 39% increase from 2023, and expects a further 58% growth to 351,221 vehicles in 2025, showcasing strong growth potential in the EV market despite macro pressures in China.
- Profit Expectations: Nio anticipates achieving its first profit in Q4 2025, a pivotal moment that could attract more investor attention and elevate its stock price, especially given its current valuation of less than 1 times this year's sales.
- AST SpaceMobile's Market Expansion: AST plans to deploy 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026 and aims to expand to 243 satellites in the coming years, with revenue expected to surge from $4 million in 2024 to $699 million by 2027, indicating significant potential in the low-earth orbit satellite market.
- Government Contract Opportunities: AST's selection as a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program suggests diversification beyond telecom contracts, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
See More
Analysis of Current Electric Vehicle Market Trends
- Sales Growth: Global EV sales surged 21% in 2025, with a notable 33% increase in Europe, indicating strong demand that could enhance market share for related companies.
- China's Market Dominance: EV sales in China grew by 19%, with Tesla holding a 4.4% market share, surpassing Nio, which highlights increasing competitive pressure on Nio in a rapidly consolidating market.
- Challenges for Nio: Nio reported a 15% year-over-year increase in vehicle sales in the latest quarter, yet its net losses reached $488.9 million, indicating a precarious position amid market consolidation and a lack of profitability.
- Rivian's Market Opportunity: Rivian ranks sixth in the U.S. market, achieving an 8% revenue growth in 2025, and while still unprofitable, it is approaching profitability faster than Nio, suggesting a stronger competitive position.
See More
Nio Anticipates First Adjusted Profit Amidst Challenges
- First Adjusted Profit: Nio anticipates reporting its first adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving at least breakeven for the full year 2026.
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, Nio's sales surged 71.7% year-over-year to nearly 125,000 vehicles, with December deliveries also rising 54.6% to a new high of 48,135 units, indicating strong traction for its new brands Onvo and Firefly.
- Improving Gross Margins: Despite the financial strain from its battery swapping network, Nio has consistently improved its gross profit margin, currently at 11.25%, which lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nio's gross margins are improving, its operating margins lag behind competitors due to the high operational costs of its battery swapping network, which may impact its long-term profitability.
See More
