Gary Black's The Future Fund Lists Tesla As 3rd-Largest Holding, Behind Nvidia And Alphabet, Despite Delivery Miss
Tesla's Position in The Future Fund: Tesla Inc. has become the third-largest holding in The Future Fund LLC, following NVIDIA and Alphabet, despite recent challenges including a delivery miss and an annual sales decline.
Investment Strategy and Future Outlook: Managing partner Gary Black maintains a disciplined investment approach, with a price target of $380 for Tesla, while acknowledging risks such as potential changes to EV tax credits and mixed analyst opinions on Tesla's future growth prospects.
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- User Growth Comparison: Google's Gemini app has reached 750 million monthly active users, increasing by 100 million from the previous quarter, closely approaching ChatGPT's estimated 800 million users, indicating a significant threat to ChatGPT's market share.
- Revenue Driver: Although Google does not directly attribute revenue to Gemini, its strong growth in cloud and services units suggests that Gemini is a key contributor to the company's overall performance, with annual revenue surpassing $400 billion for the first time in 2025, marking a 15% year-over-year increase.
- Competitive Landscape: OpenAI faces fierce competition from major tech players like Google, as Gemini's rapid rise could erode ChatGPT's market share, forcing OpenAI to increase its infrastructure investments to maintain competitiveness.
- Funding Needs: To address competition and infrastructure commitments, OpenAI is reportedly close to completing a funding round of up to $100 billion, highlighting the financial pressures it faces in sustaining innovation and market expansion.
- AI Trade Stalling: According to David Woo, the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) has shown no significant movement since last October, with its 100-day rolling return rapidly approaching zero, indicating a potential leadership erosion and the risk of a deeper market correction.
- Earnings Momentum Weakening: During the fourth-quarter earnings season, the combined EBIT four-quarter moving average of the Magnificent Seven fell to its lowest level since 2023, and despite a rebound at Apple, the overall fading earnings growth momentum raises concerns about profit-taking risks for investors.
- Capex Correlation Breakdown: Woo noted that for the first time since the launch of ChatGPT, the strong correlation between AI stocks and hyperscaler capital expenditures has turned negative, suggesting a loss of market trust in capex as a signal for higher returns, which could lead to over-investment risks.
- Market Psychology Shift: As AI-related capex grows much faster than AI-related revenue, Woo warns that this unsustainable gap may indicate a shift in investment cycles outpacing revenue cycles, posing significant risks for the market, especially with an uncertain outlook heading into 2026.
- Market Volatility Analysis: The S&P 500 index was nearly flat last week, closing at a level first reached 112 calendar days ago, reflecting a blend of optimism for economic recovery and the intertwining of an AI investment boom, despite mini-crashes in some sectors indicating internal market turbulence and uncertainty.
- AI Investment Outlook: With significant growth expected in AI capital expenditures for 2026, Nvidia's stock price remains flat compared to six months ago, and its forward P/E ratio has dropped to the lowest level since 2015, suggesting a cautious market sentiment regarding the future potential of the AI sector, which may impact investor confidence.
- Consumer Stock Performance: The relative weakness in consumer-exposed stocks contrasts sharply with the performance of traditionally defensive staples, leading to divergent interpretations in the market, which may reflect changes in cyclical demand or deeper economic concerns.
- Corporate Earnings Trends: The S&P 500 is projected to achieve low to mid-teens profit growth in the fourth quarter, surpassing consensus forecasts, yet the continuous outperformance of earnings results may lead to future adjustment risks as the market assumes such margins of victory.
AI Impact Summit in New Delhi: Top tech executives will convene in New Delhi, India, for an AI Impact Summit starting Monday.
Previous Summits: This event follows government-led summits on artificial intelligence that have taken place in the U.K., South Korea, and France.
- End of Traditional Software: Mark Cuban warns on a podcast that the era of static software is ending, as businesses will need to adapt to software limitations, with future solutions being customized to specific business needs in real-time.
- Rise of Implementation Opportunities: While traditional SaaS faces threats, Cuban sees a significant opportunity in providing AI implementation solutions for 33 million small-to-medium-sized businesses, urging students to focus on applying AI in companies rather than just creating new models.
- New Career Prospects: By bridging complex data with real-world problems, young professionals can modernize business economics faster than ever, with Cuban asserting this will be the primary job market for graduates.
- Shift Among Industry Giants: Cuban notes that even industry leaders like Microsoft are recognizing the importance of transitioning to unique usage, indicating a growing demand for personalized solutions in the market.
- Intensifying Tech Competition: Analyst Rory Green warns that China's rapid advancements in AI are breaking the U.S. tech monopoly, with predictions that most of the world may rely on a Chinese tech stack within the next 5 to 10 years, significantly impacting the U.S. market.
- National AI Fund Launched: China launched a 60.06 billion yuan ($8.69 billion) national AI fund last year and initiated the 'AI+' program to integrate AI technology across its economy and society, further accelerating its technological development.
- Cost Advantage Emerges: By leveraging massive Huawei chip clusters and abundant low-cost energy, China is narrowing the gap with the U.S. in AI model development, making its low-cost tech offerings attractive to developing economies and potentially reshaping the global tech landscape.
- U.S. Investment Return Concerns: U.S. tech giants announced capital expenditures of up to $700 billion in AI, raising concerns about returns and leading to a $1 trillion loss in market caps, reflecting growing doubts about the U.S.'s competitive edge against China.










