Following the S&P 500's significant turnaround in November, historical trends indicate December is expected to be positive as well.
S&P 500 Monthly Performance: The S&P 500 achieved its longest monthly win streak since August 2021, ending November with a slight gain of +0.1% after a significant reversal from a mid-month low of -4.4%.
Investor Sentiment and Economic Data: Investor sentiment improved during the Thanksgiving week, driven by favorable economic data suggesting a potential interest rate cut in December, alongside historical trading patterns indicating a typical market bottom around November 20.
December Outlook: Market strategist Ryan Detrick noted that December is historically the most likely month for the S&P 500 to be positive, with a probability of over 73%, although it is rarely the best month of the year.
November's Market Dynamics: November's +0.1% gain was the smallest monthly advance for the S&P 500 in 2023, contrasting with a strong performance in May (+6.2%) and a decline in March (-5.8%).
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Top Income Opportunities for 2026: Dividend Stocks, Energy Pipelines, and More Recommended Choices
- Bond Market Performance: The bond market experienced its best year since 2020, surprising income investors who were losing hope.
- Future Outlook: Despite some emerging risks, the outlook for the bond market in 2026 remains positive.
Trump attributes GDP growth to tariffs and urges prayers for SCOTUS.
Trump's Economic Claims: President Trump attributed the strong U.S. Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% to his tariffs, asserting that they contribute to economic improvement and national security.
Supreme Court Reference: Trump urged prayers for the Supreme Court as it prepares to rule on the legality of his "Liberation Day" tariffs, which have significantly increased government revenue.
Revenue Increase: The U.S. government collected $194.87 billion in customs duties for fiscal year 2025, marking a 153% year-over-year increase, largely due to the tariffs.
Market Reactions: Following the GDP report, Wall Street saw slight gains as traders analyzed the data, with various exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500 index.
Experts identify significant misjudgment in November CPI report, describe it as 'whacky'
CPI Report Overview: The November consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation at +2.7% year-over-year, lower than the expected +3.1%, but data collection issues due to the U.S. government shutdown raised concerns about the accuracy of the figures.
Data Collection Issues: The report lacked October data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics carried over September numbers, which likely understated housing inflation, a significant contributor to overall inflation.
Expert Opinions: Economists highlighted that the BLS's methodology for calculating shelter costs may have led to significant errors, with some suggesting that the data should be viewed skeptically due to the reliance on imputed figures.
Market Reaction: Despite the concerns regarding the CPI report, Wall Street responded positively, ending higher as investors processed the data, with some strategists suggesting a potential Santa Claus rally for 2026.
Trump Signs Executive Order to Prevent State Control Over AI Legislation
Executive Order on AI Regulations: President Trump signed an executive order to create a unified national framework for artificial intelligence, aiming to limit state-level regulations and establish "one rulebook" for AI.
Central Approval Source: The order emphasizes the need for a central source of approval for AI regulations, preventing states from creating conflicting laws that could hinder the tech industry's growth.
AI Litigation Task Force: The order directs the U.S. attorney general to form an "AI Litigation Task Force" to challenge state laws that are inconsistent with the new national policy.
Evaluation of State Laws: The secretary of commerce is tasked with evaluating existing state AI laws within 90 days to identify those that conflict with the federal policy, potentially leading to litigation and funding cuts.
Fed's rate decision faces highest number of dissenting opinions since September 2019
Federal Reserve Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points, with three dissenters in the vote, marking the highest number of dissenters since September 2019.
Dissenting Opinions: Stephen Miran advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change at all.
Market Reaction: Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stocks rose, indicating a positive market response to the rate cut.
Future Economic Outlook: Despite signs of a slowing U.S. economy, the risk of recession remains low, with forecasts suggesting underestimated equity upside through 2026.
Trump prepares $12 billion assistance package for farmers affected by tariffs - report
Aid Package Announcement: The Trump administration plans to unveil a $12 billion aid package for U.S. farmers impacted by trade tariffs and low crop prices, focusing on commodities like soybeans and pork.
Event Details: The announcement will take place at an event attended by various farmers and key officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
Financial Assistance Structure: The aid will consist of up to $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with additional funds for other crops not covered by this program.
Funding Authorization: The funds for the aid package are authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be managed by the Farm Service Agency.
Top Income Opportunities for 2026: Dividend Stocks, Energy Pipelines, and More Recommended Choices
- Bond Market Performance: The bond market experienced its best year since 2020, surprising income investors who were losing hope.
- Future Outlook: Despite some emerging risks, the outlook for the bond market in 2026 remains positive.
Trump attributes GDP growth to tariffs and urges prayers for SCOTUS.
Trump's Economic Claims: President Trump attributed the strong U.S. Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% to his tariffs, asserting that they contribute to economic improvement and national security.
Supreme Court Reference: Trump urged prayers for the Supreme Court as it prepares to rule on the legality of his "Liberation Day" tariffs, which have significantly increased government revenue.
Revenue Increase: The U.S. government collected $194.87 billion in customs duties for fiscal year 2025, marking a 153% year-over-year increase, largely due to the tariffs.
Market Reactions: Following the GDP report, Wall Street saw slight gains as traders analyzed the data, with various exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500 index.
Experts identify significant misjudgment in November CPI report, describe it as 'whacky'
CPI Report Overview: The November consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation at +2.7% year-over-year, lower than the expected +3.1%, but data collection issues due to the U.S. government shutdown raised concerns about the accuracy of the figures.
Data Collection Issues: The report lacked October data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics carried over September numbers, which likely understated housing inflation, a significant contributor to overall inflation.
Expert Opinions: Economists highlighted that the BLS's methodology for calculating shelter costs may have led to significant errors, with some suggesting that the data should be viewed skeptically due to the reliance on imputed figures.
Market Reaction: Despite the concerns regarding the CPI report, Wall Street responded positively, ending higher as investors processed the data, with some strategists suggesting a potential Santa Claus rally for 2026.
Trump Signs Executive Order to Prevent State Control Over AI Legislation
Executive Order on AI Regulations: President Trump signed an executive order to create a unified national framework for artificial intelligence, aiming to limit state-level regulations and establish "one rulebook" for AI.
Central Approval Source: The order emphasizes the need for a central source of approval for AI regulations, preventing states from creating conflicting laws that could hinder the tech industry's growth.
AI Litigation Task Force: The order directs the U.S. attorney general to form an "AI Litigation Task Force" to challenge state laws that are inconsistent with the new national policy.
Evaluation of State Laws: The secretary of commerce is tasked with evaluating existing state AI laws within 90 days to identify those that conflict with the federal policy, potentially leading to litigation and funding cuts.
Fed's rate decision faces highest number of dissenting opinions since September 2019
Federal Reserve Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points, with three dissenters in the vote, marking the highest number of dissenters since September 2019.
Dissenting Opinions: Stephen Miran advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change at all.
Market Reaction: Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stocks rose, indicating a positive market response to the rate cut.
Future Economic Outlook: Despite signs of a slowing U.S. economy, the risk of recession remains low, with forecasts suggesting underestimated equity upside through 2026.
Trump prepares $12 billion assistance package for farmers affected by tariffs - report
Aid Package Announcement: The Trump administration plans to unveil a $12 billion aid package for U.S. farmers impacted by trade tariffs and low crop prices, focusing on commodities like soybeans and pork.
Event Details: The announcement will take place at an event attended by various farmers and key officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
Financial Assistance Structure: The aid will consist of up to $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with additional funds for other crops not covered by this program.
Funding Authorization: The funds for the aid package are authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be managed by the Farm Service Agency.
