D-Wave Quantum's Acquisition of QCI to Propel Development
- Quantum Computing Potential: Quantum computing holds transformative potential across industries such as pharmaceuticals, materials science, finance, and cybersecurity, with expectations for breakthroughs in production and deployment by 2025, addressing problems classical computers cannot solve.
- Acquisition of QCI: D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc. for $550 million, comprising $300 million in stock and $250 million in cash, strategically positions the company to balance its commercial annealing quantum systems with the development of scalable gate-model quantum computers for general-purpose, fault-tolerant computing.
- Financial Health: Despite generating only $22 million in revenue over the first nine months of 2025, D-Wave's revenue has more than tripled year-over-year, and with a cash balance of $836.2 million as of September 30, 2025, the company demonstrates a solid financial foundation.
- Market Volatility: D-Wave's stock experienced a 19% drop in January, highlighting potential volatility; investors should be cautious of possible valuation adjustments if sales growth of the quantum annealing system falters or if progress on the gate-model system is insufficient, making it suitable only for risk-tolerant investors.
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Market Overview: Stocks are under pressure despite cooler-than-expected inflation readings, with investors focusing on valuations, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, as earnings season reveals strong numbers from major players.
AI Impact on Jobs: Concerns are growing about the impact of AI on the job market, leading to a circular debate among investors regarding future interest rate cuts and stock valuations.
Earnings Season Insights: Major companies in the AI trade are posting strong earnings, which may influence stock prices positively, while the overall outlook for stocks remains bullish.
Investment Opportunities: Analysts highlight specific stocks, including those in the insurance and energy sectors, as potential buys, while cautioning investors about the risks associated with tech stocks and the broader market's direction.
- Options Selling Risk: Selling puts on D-Wave Quantum does not provide the same upside potential as owning shares, as the seller only acquires shares if the contract is exercised, meaning the only gain before a 59.1% decline is the 12.4% annualized premium collected.
- Historical Volatility Insight: With a historical volatility of 124%, analyzing D-Wave Quantum's fundamentals alongside this metric can help investors assess whether selling the January 2028 puts at an $8 strike price is a worthwhile risk for the potential return.
- Market Trading Dynamics: As of Friday afternoon, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.33 million contracts, matching call volume, resulting in a put:call ratio of 0.73, indicating a higher-than-normal interest in puts compared to the long-term median of 0.65, reflecting investor concern over downside risks.
- Options Market Trends: Current trading data shows heightened interest in D-Wave Quantum's put options, indicating market uncertainty regarding its future performance, prompting investors to carefully evaluate the associated risks and rewards.
- Market Potential: Quantum computing is projected to create between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, offering substantial return potential for investors despite being significantly smaller than the trillion-dollar AI market.
- Stock Price Surge: As of October 2025, shares of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have skyrocketed by 670%, 6,217%, 3,912%, and 2,798% respectively over the past 12 months, reflecting strong market confidence in quantum computing.
- Significant Financing Risks: These four quantum computing companies collectively issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, indicating their unproven operating models and posing dilution risks for existing shareholders.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With major players like Amazon and Microsoft ramping up investments in quantum computing, the low barriers to entry could threaten the market position of pure-play quantum companies, potentially leading to their obsolescence as the technology matures.
- Quantum Stock Performance: As of mid-October, stocks of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. surged by up to 6,200% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust market demand for this nascent technology.
- Market Potential Analysis: According to a forecast by Boston Consulting Group, quantum computing could generate between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, attracting significant investor interest despite its smaller market size compared to artificial intelligence.
- Risks and Challenges: While quantum computing stocks present substantial return potential, they face risks such as share dilution and slow commercialization; collectively, these four companies issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, which could negatively impact existing shareholders.
- Competitive Pressure: With the
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- Massive Market Potential: McKinsey & Company projects that the quantum computing market could reach $72 billion annually by 2035, and with D-Wave Quantum's current market cap around $6.8 billion, capturing a significant market share could yield substantial returns.
- Technological Focus Advantage: D-Wave's use of quantum annealing technology allows it to specialize in solving optimization problems, giving it a competitive edge in specific applications such as weather modeling and logistics networks.
- Key Partnership Opportunity: D-Wave has signed a $10 million, two-year deal with an unnamed Fortune 100 company to explore its quantum computing capabilities, which could lead to larger collaborations and enhance its market position if successful.
- Investment Risk Advisory: While D-Wave shows potential in the quantum computing space, the intense competition from major tech companies necessitates cautious risk assessment by investors, suggesting a prudent approach to investment sizing.








