Dan Ives: Tech Stocks Are Experiencing a '1996 Moment,' Not a Bubble Like in 1999
Market Outlook: Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives believes the recent pullback in Big Tech stocks is a buying opportunity, likening the current market conditions to a "1996 Moment" rather than a "1999 Moment" indicative of a dot-com bust.
AI Revolution: Ives emphasizes that the AI revolution is just beginning, with significant growth potential in global AI infrastructure led by major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Investment Strategy: He advises long-term investors to view temporary market sell-offs as prime entry points to buy tech winners, recommending diversified tech ETFs such as QQQ, XLK, and IVES.
Long-Term Perspective: Ives stresses that the AI era is still in its early stages, and investors should focus on the long-term opportunities rather than being swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
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- Strong Earnings: Meta reported a 24% revenue growth in Q4 2025, beating market expectations, although the stock has drifted lower post-earnings, indicating investor concerns over future spending.
- Surge in Capex: The capital expenditure forecast for 2026 has been raised to between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly doubling the $72.2 billion spent in 2025, leading to a divide among investors regarding the sustainability of this spending plan.
- Robust User Growth: Meta's Family of Apps now boasts 3.58 billion daily active users, representing 43% of the global population, showcasing effective AI application in its advertising business with an 18% increase in ad impressions.
- Strong Profitability: Meta anticipates Q1 2026 revenues between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, implying growth rates as high as 34%, and despite spending pressures, the company maintains strong cash flow and profitability metrics.
- Global AI Summit: The Web Summit in Doha attracted over 30,000 founders, investors, and experts, establishing itself as a global hub for AI discussions and showcasing the Middle East's rise in the global AI landscape.
- Innovation Sandbox: Qatar Foundation Chairperson Sheikha Moza bint Nasser described the event as a 'sandbox of innovation,' highlighting AI's potential to empower small businesses and drive economic growth, particularly as large enterprises face implementation challenges.
- Energy and Data Infrastructure: Attendees discussed the resilience of supply chains, energy systems, and data infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for governments to ensure supply and diversification of computing capabilities to meet the demands of the information age.
- Investment Opportunities: Qatar's Prime Minister announced an additional $2 billion for the Qatar Investment Authority's Fund of Funds program, bringing total committed capital to $3 billion, supporting 12 regional and international fund managers, reflecting the country's ambition and potential in global AI investments.
- AI Trade Stalling: According to David Woo, the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) has shown no significant movement since last October, with its 100-day rolling return rapidly approaching zero, indicating a potential leadership erosion and the risk of a deeper market correction.
- Earnings Momentum Weakening: During the fourth-quarter earnings season, the combined EBIT four-quarter moving average of the Magnificent Seven fell to its lowest level since 2023, and despite a rebound at Apple, the overall fading earnings growth momentum raises concerns about profit-taking risks for investors.
- Capex Correlation Breakdown: Woo noted that for the first time since the launch of ChatGPT, the strong correlation between AI stocks and hyperscaler capital expenditures has turned negative, suggesting a loss of market trust in capex as a signal for higher returns, which could lead to over-investment risks.
- Market Psychology Shift: As AI-related capex grows much faster than AI-related revenue, Woo warns that this unsustainable gap may indicate a shift in investment cycles outpacing revenue cycles, posing significant risks for the market, especially with an uncertain outlook heading into 2026.
AI Impact Summit in New Delhi: Top tech executives will convene in New Delhi, India, for an AI Impact Summit starting Monday.
Previous Summits: This event follows government-led summits on artificial intelligence that have taken place in the U.K., South Korea, and France.
- Intensifying Tech Competition: Analyst Rory Green warns that China's rapid advancements in AI are breaking the U.S. tech monopoly, with predictions that most of the world may rely on a Chinese tech stack within the next 5 to 10 years, significantly impacting the U.S. market.
- National AI Fund Launched: China launched a 60.06 billion yuan ($8.69 billion) national AI fund last year and initiated the 'AI+' program to integrate AI technology across its economy and society, further accelerating its technological development.
- Cost Advantage Emerges: By leveraging massive Huawei chip clusters and abundant low-cost energy, China is narrowing the gap with the U.S. in AI model development, making its low-cost tech offerings attractive to developing economies and potentially reshaping the global tech landscape.
- U.S. Investment Return Concerns: U.S. tech giants announced capital expenditures of up to $700 billion in AI, raising concerns about returns and leading to a $1 trillion loss in market caps, reflecting growing doubts about the U.S.'s competitive edge against China.
- Spending Overview: The five largest hyperscalers, including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, are projected to budget over $700 billion by 2026, reflecting a strong demand for building AI data centers and driving growth in related sectors.
- Capital Expenditure Growth: Amazon plans to spend $200 billion in 2026, a 56% increase from $128.3 billion in 2025; Alphabet's spending is expected to reach $180 billion, with a staggering 97% year-over-year growth, significantly enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Surge in Chip Demand: These five companies are set to spend over $450 billion on GPUs, CPUs, and other AI accelerator chips in 2026, creating substantial market opportunities for chipmakers, particularly for leading firms like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
- Long-Term Growth Outlook: TSMC has raised its annual revenue growth forecast for 2024-2029 from 20% to 25%, and with the rapid increase in AI chip demand, the potential for gross margin and profit growth in the coming years is substantial, making it a valuable investment despite its stock reaching all-time highs.










