CoreCivic Projects $2.5B Revenue and $450M EBITDA for 2026 Amid Increasing New Contracts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 07 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CXW?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Management Insights: CoreCivic's CEO announced new contracts for four facilities expected to generate approximately $320 million in annual revenue, setting the stage for a stronger 2026 with projected revenue of $2.5 billion and EBITDA over $450 million.
Financial Performance: The company reported Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.24 and normalized FFO per share of $0.48, reflecting year-over-year increases, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $88.8 million.
Outlook and Guidance: Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 was revised down to $1 to $1.06, with expectations of start-up costs impacting Q4 margins, but management remains optimistic about long-term growth.
Risks and Concerns: Analysts raised concerns about government shutdown payment delays and labor cost increases, while management acknowledged operational challenges, including legal delays affecting facility intake processes.
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Analyst Views on CXW
Wall Street analysts forecast CXW stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 17.860
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
Current: 17.860
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
About CXW
CoreCivic, Inc. is a diversified, government-solutions company. The Company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its CoreCivic Safety segment consists of correctional and detention facilities that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company, as well as those correctional and detention facilities owned by third parties but managed by the Company. The segment also provides transportation services. CoreCivic Community segment consists of residential reentry centers that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company. The segment also includes electronic monitoring and case management services. CoreCivic Properties segment consists of correctional real estate properties owned by the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
CoreCivic Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Significant Revenue Growth
- New Contracts Drive Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's new awards in the second half of 2025 are expected to generate approximately $260 million annually, further solidifying its position in the federal detention market, although the Midwest facility faces delays due to a special use permit application.
- Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations: In Q4 2025, CoreCivic reported a GAAP EPS of $0.26 and an adjusted EPS of $0.27, reflecting a 69% increase from Q4 2024, demonstrating significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost control.
- EBITDA Continues to Grow: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $92.5 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, highlighting strong revenue growth under ICE contracts, despite a decline in revenue from the U.S. Marshals Service.
- Capital Expenditure and Buyback Plans: CoreCivic plans to spend $60 million to $70 million on maintenance capital expenditures in 2026 and continues to prioritize share repurchases, indicating confidence in future growth and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Turiya Advisors Sells Entire Position in CoreCivic
- Share Sale Overview: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd sold its entire position of 479,000 shares in CoreCivic (CXW) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.75 million, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach.
- Impact of Holdings Change: This sale occurred against the backdrop of CoreCivic's recent quarterly revenue of $604 million and net income of $26.5 million, suggesting that investors may be reallocating their portfolios rather than expressing pessimism about the company's outlook.
- Financial Performance Analysis: CoreCivic reported $2.2 billion in revenue and $116.5 million in net income for FY 2025, with expectations for 2026 net income between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, demonstrating the stability and growth potential of its business.
- Market Risk Assessment: Despite CoreCivic's leverage of 2.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA and an expanding credit facility, the stock still faces regulatory risks and market volatility, which could impact investor confidence.
See More
CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Shares of Immigration Enforcement Firms Under Pressure Amid Policy Criticism
- Increased Stock Volatility: Shares of companies involved in U.S. immigration enforcement, such as Geo Group and CoreCivic, have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks due to intensified criticism of White House deportation policies, raising investor concerns about future revenue stability.
- Uncertain Government Funding: Congressional Democrats have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding measure unless immigration enforcement policies are revised, creating a standoff that could lead to a partial government shutdown, injecting uncertainty into revenue streams that were previously considered stable.
- High Dependence on ICE Revenue: Geo Group has indicated that nearly half of its 2025 revenue is derived from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while CoreCivic reported $244.7 million in fourth-quarter revenue from ICE, accounting for 40.5% of its total revenue, highlighting the companies' heavy reliance on government policies.
- Potential Long-Term Improvement: Despite short-term pressures, analysts suggest that substantial funds from last summer's tax and spending legislation could support contractors, and policy changes may create new demand, particularly benefiting Axon Enterprise, which could see increased business from the DHS's requirement for agents to wear body cameras.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Corecivic reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability in the current market environment.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenues of $604 million, a 26.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $18.88 million, reflecting robust business expansion and demand.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: Corecivic projects net income for 2026 to be between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, with diluted EPS expected to range from $1.49 to $1.59, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- EBITDA Outlook: The company anticipates EBITDA for 2026 to be between $437 million and $445 million, indicating ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and profitability, which may attract more investor interest.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Corecivic (CXW) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 11th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.21, reflecting a 31.2% year-over-year increase, indicating ongoing improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $585.12 million, representing a 22.1% year-over-year growth, which underscores Corecivic's strong performance amid rising market demand and may further bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Corecivic has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating the company's stability and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions with none downward, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the company's future growth.
See More
CoreCivic Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Significant Revenue Growth
- New Contracts Drive Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's new awards in the second half of 2025 are expected to generate approximately $260 million annually, further solidifying its position in the federal detention market, although the Midwest facility faces delays due to a special use permit application.
- Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations: In Q4 2025, CoreCivic reported a GAAP EPS of $0.26 and an adjusted EPS of $0.27, reflecting a 69% increase from Q4 2024, demonstrating significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost control.
- EBITDA Continues to Grow: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $92.5 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, highlighting strong revenue growth under ICE contracts, despite a decline in revenue from the U.S. Marshals Service.
- Capital Expenditure and Buyback Plans: CoreCivic plans to spend $60 million to $70 million on maintenance capital expenditures in 2026 and continues to prioritize share repurchases, indicating confidence in future growth and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Turiya Advisors Sells Entire Position in CoreCivic
- Share Sale Overview: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd sold its entire position of 479,000 shares in CoreCivic (CXW) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.75 million, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach.
- Impact of Holdings Change: This sale occurred against the backdrop of CoreCivic's recent quarterly revenue of $604 million and net income of $26.5 million, suggesting that investors may be reallocating their portfolios rather than expressing pessimism about the company's outlook.
- Financial Performance Analysis: CoreCivic reported $2.2 billion in revenue and $116.5 million in net income for FY 2025, with expectations for 2026 net income between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, demonstrating the stability and growth potential of its business.
- Market Risk Assessment: Despite CoreCivic's leverage of 2.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA and an expanding credit facility, the stock still faces regulatory risks and market volatility, which could impact investor confidence.
See More
CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Shares of Immigration Enforcement Firms Under Pressure Amid Policy Criticism
- Increased Stock Volatility: Shares of companies involved in U.S. immigration enforcement, such as Geo Group and CoreCivic, have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks due to intensified criticism of White House deportation policies, raising investor concerns about future revenue stability.
- Uncertain Government Funding: Congressional Democrats have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding measure unless immigration enforcement policies are revised, creating a standoff that could lead to a partial government shutdown, injecting uncertainty into revenue streams that were previously considered stable.
- High Dependence on ICE Revenue: Geo Group has indicated that nearly half of its 2025 revenue is derived from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while CoreCivic reported $244.7 million in fourth-quarter revenue from ICE, accounting for 40.5% of its total revenue, highlighting the companies' heavy reliance on government policies.
- Potential Long-Term Improvement: Despite short-term pressures, analysts suggest that substantial funds from last summer's tax and spending legislation could support contractors, and policy changes may create new demand, particularly benefiting Axon Enterprise, which could see increased business from the DHS's requirement for agents to wear body cameras.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Corecivic reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, exceeding expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability in the current market environment.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenues of $604 million, a 26.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $18.88 million, reflecting robust business expansion and demand.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: Corecivic projects net income for 2026 to be between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, with diluted EPS expected to range from $1.49 to $1.59, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- EBITDA Outlook: The company anticipates EBITDA for 2026 to be between $437 million and $445 million, indicating ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and profitability, which may attract more investor interest.
See More
Corecivic Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Corecivic (CXW) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 11th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.21, reflecting a 31.2% year-over-year increase, indicating ongoing improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $585.12 million, representing a 22.1% year-over-year growth, which underscores Corecivic's strong performance amid rising market demand and may further bolster investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Corecivic has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating the company's stability and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions but three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions with none downward, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the company's future growth.
See More
