Conagra Brands (CAG) Exceeds Q2 Profit Projections
Earnings Performance: Conagra Brands reported quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44, but down from $0.7 per share a year ago, marking a +2.27% earnings surprise.
Revenue Insights: The company generated revenues of $2.98 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate and down from $3.2 billion year-over-year, with only one instance of surpassing revenue estimates in the last four quarters.
Stock Outlook: Conagra Brands shares have declined approximately 35.9% this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 15.2% gain, and the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market.
Industry Context: The Food - Miscellaneous industry is currently ranked in the bottom 20% of Zacks industries, suggesting that broader industry trends could significantly impact Conagra's stock performance moving forward.
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- Financial Guidance Reaffirmed: Conagra Brands reaffirms its fiscal 2026 guidance at the CAGNY conference, expecting free cash flow conversion to reach approximately 100%, up from the previous estimate of 90%, indicating improved cash flow management that supports future investments.
- Product Innovations Preview: The company will preview a series of new innovations expected to launch in 2026, showcasing Conagra's ability to adapt to changing consumer food preferences, which could enhance its competitive edge and drive sales growth.
- Live Webcast Arrangement: A live audio webcast of the CAGNY presentation will be available on February 17 at 9 AM on Conagra's investor relations website, providing a transparent communication channel that enhances investor understanding of the company's strategies and financial health, thereby boosting market confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Conagra achieved nearly $12 billion in net sales for fiscal 2025, reflecting its leadership in the North American food industry, with sustained sales growth laying a solid foundation for future expansion and innovation.
- Financial Guidance Reaffirmed: Conagra Brands reaffirms its fiscal 2026 financial guidance at the 2026 Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference, projecting organic net sales change between -1% and 1%, indicating stability amid market fluctuations.
- Adjusted Profitability: The company anticipates adjusted operating margins between 11.0% and 11.5%, reflecting ongoing efforts in cost control and operational efficiency, which may enhance investor confidence.
- Earnings Per Share Outlook: Conagra expects adjusted EPS to range from $1.70 to $1.85, showcasing optimism regarding future profitability, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Free Cash Flow Improvement: The company now expects free cash flow conversion to be approximately 100%, up from the previous estimate of 90%, demonstrating effective cash flow management that supports future investments and shareholder returns.
- Sector Performance: In 2026, the consumer staples sector has surged over 15.5% in the S&P 500, becoming the third-best performing sector, indicating a growing investor preference for defensive stocks amid a market rotation.
- Valuation Surge: Wolfe Research noted that market-weighted valuations for consumer staples have reached their highest levels since the 1990s, reflecting increased investor confidence in the sector despite a lackluster overall market performance.
- Walmart's Market Position: Walmart's stock jumped 20% in 2026, allowing it to join the $1 trillion market cap club, showcasing its adaptability in the AI economy and solidifying its leading position in retail.
- Future Outlook: Analysts predict that as consumer demand rebounds in 2026, the fundamentals for the consumer staples sector are likely to improve, particularly with potential tax relief for lower-income households boosting product demand.
- Price Increase Announcement: Conagra Brands has raised the target price of its stock from $18 to $20.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects the company's strategy to enhance its market position and investor confidence.
- Price Range Analysis: The SPHD ETF has a 52-week low of $43.39 and a high of $52.38, with the latest trade at $52.36, indicating stability near its high point, which may attract investor interest in price fluctuations.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the ETF's liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), allowing for assessment of their impact on underlying assets and market dynamics.

- Market Shift: There is a significant rotation from software stocks to safer investments like consumer staples.
- Investor Sentiment: Investors are concerned that advancements in AI, such as ChatGPT, may negatively impact service-oriented businesses while benefiting manufacturers of household products.







