McGraw Hill (MH): Reevaluating Valuation Following a Significant 48% Monthly Surge in Share Price
Recent Stock Performance: McGraw Hill's stock has surged approximately 48% this month, prompting investors to reassess its fundamentals and valuation after a period of weaker returns.
Valuation Insights: The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.5x, indicating it may be fairly priced compared to peers, but slightly more expensive than the broader US Consumer Services industry average.
Growth Potential and Risks: Despite a forecasted 52.9% annual earnings growth, McGraw Hill faces risks such as ongoing losses and modest revenue growth, which could impact investor optimism.
Intrinsic Value Assessment: A discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests McGraw Hill's shares are trading nearly 59% below their intrinsic value of $40.91, indicating potential underestimation of its earnings recovery.
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- Digital Revenue Growth: McGraw Hill's revenue for Q3 FY2026 increased by 4.2% year-over-year to $434.2 million, driven by an 11% rise in digital revenue to $363.7 million, showcasing the company's successful transition to digital education solutions and enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Margin Improvement: The company's gross margin improved to 85.3%, nearly a percentage point higher than the previous year, indicating that the shift to a digital learning platform not only boosted revenue but also significantly enhanced profitability and financial stability.
- Debt Repayment Capability: With EBITDA rising 8% to $135.9 million, McGraw Hill successfully paid down $200 million in debt, further strengthening its balance sheet and laying the groundwork for future investments and expansion.
- Raised Full-Year Guidance: Management raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $729 million to $739 million, reflecting positive business trends and confidence in future growth, demonstrating the company's ongoing innovation and market expansion capabilities in the education sector.
- Earnings Beat: HubSpot reported quarterly earnings of $3.09 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.99, indicating robust profitability and boosting market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The quarterly revenue reached $846.75 million, exceeding the Street estimate of $830.54 million and marking a 20.4% increase from $703.17 million in the same period last year, showcasing HubSpot's competitive strength in the market.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the positive earnings report, HubSpot's shares jumped 9.4% to $228.93 on Thursday, reflecting investor optimism about the company's growth potential and likely attracting more investor interest.
- Mixed Market Performance: While U.S. stocks showed mixed results overall, HubSpot's strong performance distinguished it among many stocks, demonstrating relative resilience and appeal in a fluctuating market.
- Strong Earnings Performance: Fastly reported earnings of $0.12 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.06, indicating a significant improvement in profitability and boosting market confidence in future growth.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The quarterly revenue reached $172.61 million, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $161.36 million and up from $140.58 million in the same period last year, demonstrating the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- Stock Price Surge: Fastly's shares jumped 34.8% to $12.55 in pre-market trading, reflecting a positive investor reaction to the earnings report, which may attract more investor interest in its future developments.
- Increased Market Confidence: The strong earnings report not only enhances investor confidence but may also prompt analysts to revise their ratings and price targets for the company, potentially driving further stock price increases.
- Significant Revenue Growth: McGraw Hill reported total revenue of $434 million for Q3, reflecting a 4.2% year-over-year increase, with higher education revenue soaring by 24%, indicating strong momentum in the higher education market.
- Robust Recurring Revenue: The company noted recurring revenue of $357 million in Q3, up 14.8% year-over-year, representing 82% of total revenue, showcasing the success of its digital transformation and sustained market demand.
- Leadership Transition: Simon Allen announced his retirement as CEO, with Philip Moyer stepping in to focus on accelerating growth and maintaining brand trust, marking a strategic shift towards technology and educational innovation.
- Optimistic Financial Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, now anticipating total revenue between $2.067 billion and $2.087 billion, reflecting management's confidence in future growth, particularly in the K-12 market's potential opportunities.
- Improved Financial Performance: McGraw Hill reported a Q3 loss of $20.20 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $52.93 million in the same period last year, indicating progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Earnings Per Share Recovery: The Q3 loss per share was $0.11, down from $0.32 in the previous year, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability that may boost investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: Q3 revenue reached $434.16 million, up from $416.49 million year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to achieve sales growth amid recovering market demand, further solidifying its market position.
- Guidance Upgrade: The company raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $2.067 billion to $2.087 billion from $2.031 billion to $2.061 billion, indicating management's optimistic outlook for future performance, which could attract more investor interest.
- Performance Growth: McGraw Hill reported revenue of $434.2 million for Q3 2025, a 4.2% increase year-over-year, with Higher Education revenue rising 24% to $225.4 million, while K-12 revenue fell 14.6% to $128.2 million, indicating a divergence in the education market.
- Adjusted EBITDA Improvement: The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 reached $135.9 million with a margin of 31.3%, up approximately 100 basis points from the previous year, reflecting improvements in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Accelerated Debt Paydown: The company accelerated its debt repayment by prepaying $200 million in term loans during the quarter, indicating an improved financial health and providing greater flexibility for future investments.
- Guidance Upgrade: McGraw Hill raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $2.067–$2.087 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $729–$739 million, demonstrating strong confidence in future growth driven by robust demand for digital products.









